Wednesday, January 22, 2014

Another clipper on the way.. snow and blowing snow by Thursday evening. Turning colder again for weekend..

In what is becoming an all too familiar pattern this winter, another clipper system from western Canada will be tracking across Manitoba tomorrow, bringing increasing winds, snow, briefly milder temperatures and then another cold outbreak in its wake. In the short term, the clipper system will be spreading an area of snow across southern Manitoba Thursday, pushing into Winnipeg and the Red River valley by mid afternoon to early evening from the northwest.  Winds will be increasing out of the south through the day, with gusts to 60 or 70 km/h by evening which combined with the falling snow, will result in poor visibilities in blowing and drifting snow, especially Thursday evening. About 2 to 5 cm of snow is expected to fall by the time the snow tapers off around midnight, with temperatures continuing to climb Thursday night to about -5C by Friday morning. Friday will be a milder day with high temperatures near -3C before colder air moves in by evening. Saturday will see quiet seasonable weather before another clipper tracks through southwest Manitoba by Saturday night, bringing additional snow. This system will be followed by another surge of bitterly cold air Sunday into Monday with daytime temperatures in the minus 20s and brisk north winds giving wind chills in the minus 40s. Cold conditions will persist into the middle of next week before milder weather returns by the end of the week.  

47 comments:

  1. I don't Rob, every day I think this can't go on, but it does. :)

    What I wanted to know was the webcam link to the Winnipeg Central - N Osborne cam. I had it and it disappeared somehow. Could you give it to me please?

    I don't know what CBC is doing with its cams... I think all of them are marooned without any public links. I don't know what use that is to the CBC or the public. I thought all of them would disappear, but Summerland came back to life.

    So if you could give me the Osborne link, I'd appreciate it.

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  2. I've seen enough Alberta Clippers and windchill warnings to last me the next 2 winters!!

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  3. Box134..

    N Osborne webcam is "evergreen"

    i.e. http://www.cbc.ca/manitoba/webcam/evergreen.jpg

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  4. Don't let that forecast high of -12C for today fool you.. that won't be reached until this evening. Temperatures will be in the minus 20s this morning rising to -15C by late afternoon. Windchills will be in the minus 30s this morning, and -20s this afternoon.. so that high of -12C will be on paper only. Certainly won't feel like it. Nicer tomorrow with highs around -3C.

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  5. High of +10C forecast for Whitehorse today. If they reach that, it would an all time January record high for them, surpassing the current record of +9C in January 1977 (another frigid winter over central and eastern Canada)

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  6. I don't know if we have had more snow this season compared to last season at this point...but it seems like that way looking at the mountains of snow in my yard!!

    As much as I don't want snowcover to stick around until April, I sure don't want all of this snow melting at once, or there will be a huge lake in my house!!

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  7. http://www.cbc.ca/manitoba/webcam/evergreen.jpg

    Thanks Rob.

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  8. Snow hasn't even started, and there's already considerable blowing snow at times inside city limits in south end with that wind.

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  9. Heavy snow in Winnipeg now with visibility down to around 1 city block. Picked up a very quick 2cm so far.

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  10. Hey Rob,

    With the clipper that looks like will start sat overnight, will it be another 2-4 cm? will it snow all day on Sunday or move through pretty quick and be done early afternoon?

    Thanks

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  11. Todd..

    Looks like the bulk of snow from Saturday's clipper will be Saturday night into Sunday morning, with current model consensus of about 2-4 cm for Winnipeg. Higher amounts of 5-10 cm indicated over SW MB and areas south and west of Winnipeg. Winds shouldn't be too bad Saturday night so blowing and drifting snow shouldn't be too much of an issue while it's snowing.. however the winds will pick up from the north by midday Sunday through Sunday afternoon into early evening which will likely result in blowing and drifting of the new snow. Could even be blizzard like conditions over southern RRV into North Dakota.

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  12. Picked up about 1 cm today on top of the 4 cm last evening.. which puts my winter snow total up to an even 100 cm as of today. Monthly totals so far..

    Oct ... 0.2 cm
    Nov ... 26.4 cm
    Dec ... 40.0 cm
    Jan ... 33.6 cm (as of 24th)

    Snow depth is 42 cm. For comparison, I had recorded 113 cm as of this date last year, with the exact snow depth .. 42 cm.. as of Jan 25th. So although it seems a lot snowier this year, it's about the same as last year so far.. (sure hope we don't repeat last spring!)

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  13. Thanks for your reply!!

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  14. Somehow I just have this feeling we are in for a repeat of 2013 as far as March and April are concerned. Based on certain factors and we virtually are in the same weather pattern we were a year ago and look at how that transpired. Looking scarily similar to last year right now. I hope i'm wrong but history does show that a colder than normal start to spring follows a colder and snowier winter. Way too much snow on the ground for an early spring.

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  15. Anonymous.. I agree it doesn't look good for an early spring. These type of patterns usually stay persistent for several weeks/months before a turnaround. The problem this year is that there is abnormally warm waters over the Pacific off Alaska, which is helping to anchor that stubborn ridge over the West Coast. We had a similar situation in 2009 when we went 8 consecutive months below normal.

    That being said.. Mother Nature is full of surprises these days, and you never know when she'll do a complete 180 on you and bring a weather pattern you totally didn't expect (i.e. prolonged warmer weather). I'm just hopeful we don't get an April as bad as last year.

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  16. Special weather statement issued for most of Southern Manitoba. Winds could gust to 80 km/h , and with the fresh snow that will fall, will mostly likely lead to whiteout conditions on many highways!!

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  17. Does that 16.5°C in Burwash, Yukon yesterday seem a little suspicious? The warmest it got in the hourly obs was 9°C. There would have had to have been a very drastic warmup followed by a drastic cool down in between hourly obs.

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  18. Blizzard watch issued for North Dakota with winds gusts as high as 55mph.

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  19. Rob,
    Weather network is calling for another 5-10 on Wednesday. Is this really going to happen?

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  20. >>Does that 16.5°C in Burwash, Yukon yesterday seem a little suspicious? The warmest it got in the hourly obs was 9°C. There would have had to have been a very drastic warmup followed by a drastic cool down in between hourly obs.

    Seems legit. There are two weather stations at Burwash, and they both recorded a high of +16.5C. The temperature popped to 16C for an hour or two late in the day when winds went SW and gusty before dropping again to "only" +9C in the evening.

    To support that, Fort Nelson BC climbed to a phenomenal +14.9C overnight as their winds went SW. It's their warmest January temp ever (prev 10.9C) and it occurred at night. Their average high right now is -15C with lows of -25C, which means they were an astounding 40C above their normal nighttime temperature last night. Unbelievable.

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  21. Todd.. 5-10 cm seems a bit overdone for Winnipeg for Wednesday based on current model guidance. We do have another clipper tracking through right now but most models are suggesting the bulk of the snow will fall through the Interlake. But it's still a few days away... yet another clipper to keep an eye on.

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  22. If you're looking for an escape from this dreadful cold, try Calgary. They've been above freezing every day but one since Jan 8th. Their average high has been +4c this month. They haven't been below -10C for the past two weeks. They do cool off tomorrow and Monday with temps dropping to -15C or so, but then they pop right back above freezing again by Tuesday. No snow on the ground there either. 15 hour drive for some sanity! If I had the time, I'd do it!

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  23. About this year's snow accumulations and how it seems higher than last year... it seems to be the way snow has been deposited this year. Perhaps because of the excessive high winds snow has piled up more on streets and yards. I know I've never had more snow in my yards. The picnic table is lost under the snow and my back yard snow dump has never been more full.

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  24. Is this it for the snow tonight?

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  25. Todd.. There's another wave of snow up by The Pas that should be coming in overnight.. maybe another 1-2 cm by morning.

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  26. Rob or anyone else. What time can we expect these big winds to start up tomorrow and what time will they subside?

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  27. Daryl.. gusty northerly winds will start up between 7-9 am , peak through midday with gusts to 70-75 km/h, then start dropping off gradually after mid afternoon. They will still be brisk in the early evening but should diminish to about 20 km/h by midnight.

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  28. I'd say i'm a little surprised that no warnings of some sort have been issued tonight for tomorrow's event considering there's a very good chance of ground blizzard conditions especially in the RRV.

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  29. Blowing snow and/or blizzard warnings will likely be issued with 5 am forecast update.

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  30. Rob, would you say that blizzard conditions are more likely in Southern RRV as opposed to here in Winnipeg?

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  31. Best bet for blizzard conditions would be in the Portage-Elie-Brunkild-Morris-Emerson corridor, but any open areas in the RRV around and outside the perimeter would be prone to poor visibilities with blowing/drifting snow. Things shouldn't be as bad in the city itself due to more buldings/trees/etc but even here, we'll see locally poor vsbys in exposed areas.

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  32. Hi Rob,

    any idea how much snow fell yesterday/last night?

    Thanks

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  33. I picked up 4 cm here in Charleswood.. airport also reported 4 cm.

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  34. Looking at that Emerson webcam, things look really bad out in open country!!

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  35. Not to be a bearer of bad news but it sure looks like this frigid arctic air will persist through February. All signs are pointing to a very cold February. Abnormally high positive height anomalies at 500 mb over the eastern Pacific combined with the projected increasingly negative AO and long range models are actually hinting at the coldest airmass of the season coming in during the Feb. 6 to 14 period with 925 mb temps approaching -30C over us. So stepping a little out on a limb here but there is a very realistic chance that February will be in the top 5 coldest February's ever for Winnipeg. Groundhogs beware of the impending lynch mobs.

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  36. Sounds like many highways shutting down in Manitoba and North Dakota due to whiteout conditions!!

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  37. Hey Rob is the wind storm still on track. Will the winds max out shortly and still decline as the afternoon wears on or is the system slower then thought?

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  38. Daryl.. Winds are peaking now in Winnipeg with gusts in the 60-65 kmh range. Stronger gusts of 70-80 kmh over the southern RRV into ND. I think our winds here will stay up like this for another hour or two before things start settling down a bit.

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  39. Interesting to see winter storm watches posted from Houston through New Orleans and all along the gulf coast to South Carolina. Not the type of weather they see too often!!

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  40. Hi Rob, I'm trying to utilize my labour for this week. Do you suspect the snow fall for Wednesday will surpass the suggested 1-3 cm? As well do you see wind as a factor on Wednesday?

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  41. Anonymous.. Right now, it's looking like we won't see much more than 1-3 cm here in Winnipeg Wednesday (if that). Models have been pretty consistent taking the bulk of Wednesday's snow through central MB. We'll keep an eye on it to see if it trends south, but so far.. consensus is for a more northern track with minimal snowfall for Winnipeg.

    As with most clippers, there will be some wind with it.. brisk southerlies ahead of it (40-60 kmh) shifting to gusty northwesterlies behind (NW 40G60 km/h)

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  42. Windchills as low as -45 this morning in Winnipeg. That's it, I've had enough. I'm moving to the Yukon, where it's warmer :)

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  43. I was kinda looking forward to a warm up as we head into February. It looks like that won't be happening :(

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  44. Hi,
    I'm wondering how far below normal this January is as of now.

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  45. Rob,it sounds like some people have been stuck in their car for around 8 hours in Atlanta. Vehicles are running out of fuel. The worst traffic gridlock imaginable. Amazing what 2 inches of snow can do to a southern city.

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  46. Rob, thank you very much for the heads up on Wednesday, it really helped me utilize my labour and actually save money.


    Manny

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  47. The next 2 weeks look well below normal for the area. Why do I get that feeling we will be going into March with a pretty solid snowpack...

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