Saturday, November 09, 2013
Cold blast moving in Sunday.. but short lived..
An acrtic cold front will be pushing across southern MB Sunday ushering in a northerly flow of much colder air from the Arctic for Sunday afternoon into Monday. The cold front will be pushing through Winnipeg around midday Sunday with a few flurries, then gusty northwest winds will develop behind the front with falling temperatures in the afternoon. Midday temperatures near -1 or -2C will fall to -8C by evening, and -12 to -15C by Monday morning. Remembrance Day will be sunny but cold, with afternoon highs near -8C and northwest winds of 20 km/h. The good news is that this blast of cold air will be short lived as winds shift into the south on Tuesday bringing in moderating temperatures by midweek. By Wednesday, highs will be back on the plus side, with highs rising above normal to around +6C. Seasonable temperatures are expected for the latter half of the week along with generally fair conditions.
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Rob, with this airmass coming down tomorrow, how cold could it have gotten if we had about 6 inches of fresh snow on the ground??
ReplyDeleteWith this exact same cold high over fresh snow, would -25 C have been out of the question??
Anonymous.. 850 mb temps get down to -20C Monday morning. With a light NW flow and clear skies over a good snowpack, surface temperatures of -20C to -25C would be quite possible. Indeed, temperatures like that are possible near the MB/SK border under the ridge Monday morning.
ReplyDelete-18 C forecast for Tuesday morning here in Winnipeg. If that does happen, that would be very impressive for this time of year with no snow on the ground!!
ReplyDeleteGetting dangerously close to a Kuzik-ish (sp?) "South winds always warm us up!" ;-). I assume there will be some westerly component?
ReplyDeleteAnd the lack of snow is definitely a plus for us this time; I'm not ready for -25°C.
Windchills already down to -20 in Winnipeg this evening. A good evening to stay indoors!
ReplyDeleteNot ready for -25 C ???
ReplyDeleteWell, you would have to be if you lived in Saskatoon SK. Already that cold at 10:00 in the evening. Impressive!
.. and down to -30C already in Spiritwood SK, west of Prince Albert! Yikes!
ReplyDeleteWhere are those Ljs and what happenned to November. -40 WC at Nipawin this Morning.
ReplyDeleteA low of -33.5C at Spiritwood SK and -32.3C at Nipawin. Roblin MB was the coldest spot in southern MB at -25.0C this morning. Meanwhile, it's a balmy -4C way up in Inivuk NWT, a sign of the warmer air that will be flooding across the Prairies over the next couple of days.
ReplyDeleteWe need those balmy temps to melt the ice rapidly forming on the Red river in the cty this am
ReplyDeleteWell, we're doing better than last year.. a year ago today, we were waking up to 20+ cm of snow on the ground in Winnipeg after our first major winter storm of the year the day before. Over 60 cm north of Swan River! We didn't see bare ground again until the last week of April! Looking forward to a later start and earlier end to winter this year.
ReplyDeleteRob, what do you think are chances are at starting December the way it looks now with either little or no snowcover?
ReplyDeleteI noticed today that the GEM model indicates a snowstorm mid saterday-mid sunday with 16 CM...
ReplyDeleteWonder how warm it will get for Wednesday. EC says +8, TWN says +7, CBC MB only has +3.
ReplyDeleteWell those southwest winds sure did warm us up in a hurry today. With a nice west wind tomorrow, 8 C should be no problem!!
ReplyDeleteI'm surprised we bounced back so quickly today! Usually a southerly wind out of a departing Arctic high keeps up cool in the RRV.. but with lots of sun and no snow on the ground, we've warmed up nicely. Up to +8C over far SW MB this afternoon! Based on today, I think we may be able to get close to 10C tomorrow, if we get enough sun.
ReplyDeleteShows not to underestimate how much warming the sun can still do at this time of year!
ReplyDeleteA high of +3.6C at Winnipeg today.. a surprisingly rapid rebound after such a chilly start. Looking at Winnipeg's sounding tomorrow, I think we have a shot at 10C here with a favourable west wind, and sufficient sunshine. Regardless, forecast high of +8C looks easily attainable given the setup. NAM is out to lunch giving us a high of only +2C tomorrow which is way too cold.. must think we have snow on the ground!
ReplyDeleteWinnipeg's wake up temperature tomorrow morning may be warmer than Atlanta's. Can't say that too often!!
ReplyDeleteYou are correct Rob. The NAM thinks we have snow. On SpotWx the bottom right graph for the NAM shows the snow depth.
ReplyDeletehttp://spotwx.com/products/grib_index.php?model=nam_awphys&lat=49.89975&lon=-97.13749&tz=-6
This evening's 00Z model shows 4.5cm currently on the ground. Not correct obviously.
Garth
Thanks Garth.. US national snow cover map looks overdone for southern MB.. (see link or click on my name)
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201311/nsm_depth_2013111205_National.jpg
Rob, could we possibly our first snowfall here in Winnipeg/RRV Sunday with that clipper?
ReplyDelete10 C in Winnipeg this afternoon, with a NW wind direction. Very nice day indeed.
ReplyDeleteRob, your latest Blog headline :
ReplyDelete" Cold blast moving in Sunday...but short lived "
This is actually is going to work for this upcoming weekend weather. LOL...funny how that the cold blast is arriving the same time and will most likely be out the same time!
Looks like EC had the best 1-day forecast for today, off by -2C. TWN off by -3C. CBC MB off by -7C.
ReplyDeleteA high of 10.3C at Winnipeg airport, warmest day of the month and second double digit high this month. (10.2C on the 2nd). So much for NAM's predicted high of +2C!
ReplyDeleteAlmost everyone along and south of the TransCanada hit double digits today. Provincial hot spot was Melita at 13.6C
Hi Rob,
ReplyDeleteI see snow is back in the forecast for Sunday. Any ideas on how much?
Thanks.
Jeff..
ReplyDeleteMost guidance suggests that Winnipeg will get brushed by some minor snowfall Sunday.. perhaps a couple cm as a strong storm system intensifies over Ontario and we get cold northerly winds on the backside. The NAM model is the most aggressive on snowfall amounts for us Sunday, showing 5-10 cm, as they indicate a secondary impulse hanging back and giving a heavier shot of snow over southern MB, while most other models show that secondary impulse weakening over us as the Ontario storm takes over. So the NAM is the outlier on this one right now.. we'll have to see how subsequent model runs trend. But as of now, the concensus is we'll see minor amounts here, with higher snowfall amounts in NW Ontario on the backside of that intensifying Ontario storm system.
Thanks Rob.
ReplyDeleteThe US models (and the forecasters who rely on them) are doing poor again today.
ReplyDelete10- 15 cm of snow and 70 km wind gusts in Calgary tomorrow. If that would have been on Sunday instead, that would have made for a very interesting game.
ReplyDeleteIs it just me or is the landscape getting awfully dry out there? Only about 11mm of precip since Oct 1st and 43 since Sept 1st, almost 50% of normal for what we should be at by now. Dryness is not a good thing leading into the winter freeze up. This year’s curse of system after system after system avoiding us just doesn't seem to be shaking itself off, even the change of seasons doesn't help. This has to be one of our driest years yet and something’s gotta give at some point.
ReplyDeleteI'll take our shorter but harsher winters over the longer winters in Alberta. Already 3 snowstorms there this season, and 0 here. Snowstorms from September to May are common there... no thanks.
ReplyDeleteAgreed, Anonymous. The worst example of Alberta weather, however, has got to be the August 1st snowstorm of 2002. Even the Red Deer area had accumulation of several cm, and it's not that high in elevation. And if you're not safe from snow in late July or early August, when are you safe?!
ReplyDeleteLived in Calgary for 15 consecutive months. Snow in all of them.
ReplyDeleteEnvironment Canada is calling for 5 cm of snow for Portage La Prairie. Maybe some accumulating snow will work it's way into Winnipeg later!!
ReplyDeleteRob, my dad and I were wondering why the pressure was so very low without there being a major storm to accompany it. The relative stability we have been experiencing would suggest a higher pressure in place. Is it because we are situated between two lows, one of them deepening off to our southeast and one now approaching from the west? Also, could you give a heads-up on what the travelling could be like coming from Steinbach to Wpg. late afternoon tomorrow? Looks like it could be messy. Thanks:)
ReplyDeleteIm at the North Perimeter near number 8 and it is snowing pretty good right now. Ground has thin layer of snow at the moment.
ReplyDeleteSnow's making its way southward, getting a light cover near Portage. Roads mostly wet instead of snow-covered for the moment.
ReplyDelete>> Anonymous said... Rob, my dad and I were wondering why the pressure was so very low without there being a major storm to accompany it. The relative stability we have been experiencing would suggest a higher pressure in place.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous.. our pressure this evening is down to 997 mb which is fairly low, but not extraordinary. The center of the low pressure system is in North Dakota with a central pressure of 993 mb. It's not only the depth of the low that determines how strong a storm is, but also the pressure gradient (how tight the pressure isobars are packed together which correlates to wind speed), temperature gradient, upper winds, moisture availability, etc.. Generally though, the lower the pressure, the stronger the storm.. stronger Colorado lows are usually 980 mb or less.
>> Also, could you give a heads-up on what the travelling could be like coming from Steinbach to Wpg. late afternoon tomorrow? Looks like it could be messy. Thanks:)
There will likely be some light snow falling, gusty north winds and temperatures around -3C.. so road conditions could be a little slick. Overall though, I don't think it will be too bad for mid November.
Thanks for your response Rob, much appreciated.
ReplyDeleteRoads pretty slick this morning from the overnight snowfall along with gusty north winds and sub freezing temps. Not a lot of snow (couple cm so far) but enough to cover the ground and roads with a layer of snow/ice. They've even shut down the TCH between Headingley and Portage due to slippery conditions this morning. Snow will be tapering off this afternoon with another couple cm possible so caution if you're out today as this is the first real taste of winter conditions for Winnipeg/RRV.
ReplyDeleteWhat a surprise when I looked outside this morning, as I was not expecting any snow accumulation overnight. Winter wonderland :)
ReplyDeleteYeah, a little more snow than I was expecting.. looks like earlier NAM had the right idea after all. I've recorded about 3.5 cm here in Charleswood as of 8 am.. with reports of 7-10 cm northwest of Winnipeg from Portage LP to Woodlands area. Generally 2-5 cm over RRV so far.
ReplyDelete