Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Halloween weather in Winnipeg

The weather is not looking too frightful this year for Halloween in southern Manitoba. Pleasant conditions are expected with afternoon highs slightly above normal at +8C under partly sunny skies and light winds. Temperatures are expected to be near +5C around 6 pm falling to 0C by midnight for evening trick or treaters. Last year, Winnipeg had a high of +5C on Halloween, with patchy drizzle in the evening and temperatures near +2C.  Overall, the weather is not looking too bad for this time of year, which history has shown can range from pleasant to downright terrifying in Winnipeg on Halloween. Some of the more significant Halloween weather Winnipeg and area has experienced since 1950 includes..

1955.. A steady snow starts around midday Halloween and continues through the evening. 9 cm of snow accumulates by midnight with evening temperatures near -2C. This snowfall would signal the start of Winnipeg's snowiest winter on record, with a phenomenal 252 cm of snow falling by April, over twice a normal winter snowfall.

1957, 1958 ... 2 consecutive mild Halloweens, with sunny 15C weather.

1971... Winnipeg's whitest Halloween. An early season snowstorm starts on the morning of the 30th and continues until the early morning of the 31st. By the time it was over, 28 cm of snow had fallen on the city turning Halloween into a winter wonderland. 18 cm of snow was still on the ground the morning of Oct 31st.

1979... Winnipeg's scariest Halloween.. weatherwise. Rain and wet snow during the afternoon changes to steady snow in the evening, accompanied by northerly winds of 50 km/h gusting as high as 78 km/h and temperatures near the 0C mark. Although only 2 cm of wet snow fell in Winnipeg, heavier amounts of 15-25 cm fell east of the city to the Ontario border. Twas a night fit for neither man nor beast.

1990... One of Winnipeg's warmest Halloweens with a high temperature of 17.2C.

1991 ... One year later, it was one of the coldest Halloweens on record with a high of -7.5C and a low of -15.3C in Winnipeg, along with 4 cm of snow on the ground. Temperatures ranged between -8C and -10C Halloween evening, but winds were light so windchill was not a big issue.  

1996..  Another cold Halloween with a daily high of -3.4C and a low of -12.8C along with 2 cm of snow on the ground. Evening temperatures were between  -8C and -12C, but 15 km/h winds produced windchills of -15 to -19C, making it feel colder than 1991.      

1999 ... Warmest Halloween in modern times. Temperatures climb to a high of 17.7C in Winnipeg, while the mercury soars to 24C over the southern Red River valley at Emerson and Gretna. Temperatures were still at a balmy 16C Halloween evening in Winnipeg making it feel more like the end of September than October.

2000 .. A soggy Halloween. 11.6 mm of rain falls during one of Winnipeg's wettest Halloweens. At least it was mild with highs near 13C but also fog and mist to add to the spooky atmosphere.  

Whatever the weather, have a safe and enjoyable Halloween!  

22 comments:

  1. Rob, what's the latest on the snow potential for us Sunday night and Monday?

    I've been hearing that model runs from today have trended back towards giving us our first significant snowfall of the season.

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  2. Anonymous..

    Today's run of the Canadian GDPS model (GGEM) has indeed trended towards a snowier solution for parts of southern MB, but more so over Interlake and western MB with precip starting mainly as rain for YWG/RRV. It shows precip changing to snow for Winnipeg Sunday night into Monday with some accumulations possible. But again, higher amounts of snow to our north and west. GFS and Euro models still paint a slightly warmer solution, with more of a rain event for YWG/RRV possibly changing to some minor snow on the tail end. At this point, I would say that it's possible Winnipeg will see some accumulating snow Sunday night into Monday, but confidence is low right now given precip type issues and storm track uncertainties. Will keep you posted in the days ahead..

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  3. Last night's GDPS has gone back to a warmer solution for Winnipeg/RRV with mainly rain for us Sunday into Monday, and snow confined to higher elvations towards SK border. This is in line with other long range models as well. So at this point, Sun-Mon system not looking like a snow event for YWG. Will keep you posted if things change..

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  4. Crazy winds in the east. Snowstorms in the west.
    Maybe, it will be our turn next, for some wild weather....

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  5. Aw man, I'm already hoping this won't be a repeat of winter '11/'12.

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  6. @ Connor,

    Speak for yourself :) After last year's nasty winter, another winter like 2011-12 is exactly what the doctor prescribed. But I'm not holding my breath...

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  7. It looks like some false observations are ongoing at YWG Airport which has been reporting light snowshowers for the last couple of hours. At 8C I don't think so.

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  8. Had to be an error. No way we're getting flurries out there with 5000 ft of above freezing air over us. I see he sent out a correction on the 01Z obs, but the flurries still show up on the 00Z obs.

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  9. Rob, what does the pattern look like for us over the next week or two as far temps and precip are concerned?

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  10. Anonymous..

    Generally looks seasonable and mainly dry this week.. although models are indicating a system tracking through the Dakotas by late week that may impact us.. but way too early to say for sure. Things get more uncertain after that, and I don't like to speculate unless I see more definite signals.

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  11. By the way, Arctic Oscillation Index (AO) has turned strongly positive over the past week which generally means a delay in Arctic air for us. Hopefully it stays that way for awhile, but it can change fairly quickly so no promises. I'm with Andy though.. I also wouldn't mind having a winter like 2011/12 again after last year.

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  12. Got up to 13C today in Gretna.. warmest spot in mainland Canada today. (Sable Island NS got to 14C, but no one lives there) Hard to believe that southern MB is the warmest spot in Canada in early November.

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  13. Of the biggest cities in the Prairies, Winnipeg's the only one without some snow on the ground this morning. Winter may be more harsh here than to our west, but at least it doesn't last as long.

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  14. This is the forecast for Edmonton tonight:

    Clear. Low minus 12 except minus 15 in outlying areas.

    I have never seen a forecast like this before, where EC will forecast different temperature for outlying areas!! Interesting!!

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  15. @ Anonymous:

    I think I've seen a few "except in suburban areas" in some of the text forecasts here. Has been a while since it was last included in one here as far as I know.

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  16. I 2nd the motion for another repeat of the winter of 2011/2012. So Rob, CBC's weather guy is muttering about snow this weekend but so far EC's and TWN's forecast show no precip. Should "we" place our bets and start a poll for the date of Wpg's first measurable snowfall? I'm saying Nov 20th.

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  17. Yesterday when going over the Red River near Jubilee, I noticed the river is at very low levels. I could even see boulders jutting out of the water in the MIDDLE of the river. Very dry around here as of a late!!

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  18. >> Anonymous said.. So Rob, CBC's weather guy is muttering about snow this weekend but so far EC's and TWN's forecast show no precip. Should "we" place our bets and start a poll for the date of Wpg's first measurable snowfall? I'm saying Nov 20th.

    Models are indicating a system crossing southern MB Friday into Saturday, which may give us our first measurable snowfall here in Winnipeg and the RRV later Friday through Friday night into Saturday morning. May start as rain or wet snow for us late Friday, but likely change to all snow Friday night with a few cm possible by Saturday morning. NAM is projecting over 10 cm which seems overdone.. I'm thinking 2-5 cm at this point, but we'll keep an eye on it to see if things trend higher, or lower.

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  19. I love this new model-veiwing website: WWW.hogoweathermodels.com

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  20. Hi Rob,

    Any further update on potential snow on the weekend.

    Thanks

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  21. Jeff..

    Precipitation from next system should be pushing into Winnipeg/RRV by suppertime Friday, but it will start off as wet snow at first with temperatures around +2C Friday afternoon before the precip starts. Snow could start accumulating in the evening with a coating of 2-3 cm possible by Saturday morning here in the city. I'll put an updated post up shortly..

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  22. Looks like I will be installing my winter tires/rims tonight! Hope something comes of it. My sled is sitting patiently in the garage waiting for snow.

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