Monday, September 30, 2013
Nice finish to a nice month..
September will be ending on a mainly sunny and warm note today over the Red River valley as a southwest flow of mild air pushes temperatures into the low 20s this afternoon. A weak cold front will push in from the west later today into this evening bringing a slight chance of showers, ushering in slightly cooler and windy conditions for the first day of October. Brisk westerly winds Tuesday will be gusting to 60 or 70 km/h but temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the upper teens with a mix of sun and cloud. Normal highs at this time of year are now around the 15C mark. Above normal temperatures are expected to continue through midweek before cooler and more unsettled conditions move in for the end of the week. All in all, a nice stretch of weather to end off September which will finish some 3C above normal for the month.
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Had a few surprise early morning showers move through but things are clearing up nicely now and we should see a mainly sunny day here in Winnipeg and the RRV much of the day along with temps rising into the low 20s with southwest winds of 20 kmh. Models still indicating a chance of showers this evening for Winnipeg as that weak cold front pushes through. Looks pretty windy Tuesday as a westerly flow taps 40 knot low level winds for gusts to 60-70 kmh by the afternoon. Current forecast calls for 30% chance of showers tomorrow for Winnipeg but looks fairly dry here.. slightly better chance for some showers through the Interlake.
ReplyDeleteLong range looks interesting for later in the week.. Models indicating a strong Colorado low pushing across Minnesota possibly affecting southern MB with strong winds and rain. At this point, only the Canadian GLB model brings precip into southern MB while the GFS and Euro models take main precip shield further east. But something to watch for later in the week..
I see winds are 100 km in Alberta foothills today. Is that the same system that is going to impact us tomorrow?? Is there even a remote chance of damaging wind gusts here??
ReplyDeleteWinds are just in insane in Lethbridge Alberta right now with gusts up to 115 km/h
ReplyDeleteAnonymous said... I see winds are 100 km in Alberta foothills today. Is that the same system that is going to impact us tomorrow?? Is there even a remote chance of damaging wind gusts here??
ReplyDeleteWe're going to get some of those winds tomorrow, but I don't think we'll see gusts as strong as southern Alberta is getting right now. We have a 50-60 kt low level jet that pushes into SW MB tomorrow morning but weakens somewhat during the day to about 40-45 knots over southern MB during max heating/mixing time in the afternoon. That would suggest westerly gusts to 70 km/h or so here in Winnipeg and RRV.. but it's possible some higher elevations and downslope areas of western MB may see gusts to 80-90 km/h tomorrow morning for awhile.
But given how hard it's blowing out west, it's certainly something to monitor as that system tracks east.
Looks like we'll do a little better than the forecast high of 21C today.. 23C looking good for Winnipeg this afternoon with a favourable SW breeze and plenty of sunshine. Beautiful day!
ReplyDelete12Z run of GLB GEM has backed off on rain and wind over southern MB for Thursday/Friday as main Colorado low digs further south and east then tracks northeast over Lake Superior over the weekend. GFS and Euro have maintained track further south and east of us, so right now.. model concensus is pointing to a miss for southern MB from that system later this week, although there will be impacts over neighbouring ern ND, MN, and NW Ontario if you have any plans out that way this weekend. We'll see if there's any trend to a track further north and west over the next few days.
ReplyDeleteTherein lies the problem with having an automated forecast from a single solution model (known as a deterministic solution) rather than going with an ensemble model approach. Right now, the forecast says "rain" for Thu and Fri for Winnipeg because of last night's GGEM solution. But now, the forecast may change to a mix of sun and cloud, or 30% chance of showers due to this new model run. And who knows.. it may flip again tomorrow. A far better approach would have been to just say a 30% chance of rain Thu/Fri due to uncertainty based on other models, then trend one way or the other as new guidance became available. This is more desirable than flipping between "rain" and "no rain" from one forecast to the next.
ReplyDeleteAnother reason why I run this blog... to point these issues out to people who must wonder why the forecast flip flops so much in the long range! (It's not because of meteorologists!)
Rob, this may be too difficult to say but does the overall pattern for October look to remain the same as it has been over the last month or so with a continued above normal pattern?
ReplyDeleteAnonymous… My gut feeling is that our weather pattern will turn cooler and more unsettled over southern Manitoba in October based on the increased storminess that I'm seeing out in the Pacific. I think that the warmer and drier conditions we had in September will shift over eastern North America in October with a storm track setting up over the central plains into central Canada. But we'll see...
ReplyDeleteShowers moving into Winnipeg now accompanied by some gusty SW winds.. currently gusting to 32 kt (60 km/h) at YWG airport according to YWG RVR real time wind data.
ReplyDeletePretty impressive when Rob is getting 63 km wind gusts in his back yard!
ReplyDeleteWinter Storm Watch's issued for south Dakota with 6 or more inches of snow possible. Even parts of North Dakota could get a taste of the action!!
ReplyDelete35F and raining in Bismarck, ND... pretty close to snow!
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, like it often is the case, it is pretty warm to the East!
36 inches of snow and NEAR hurricane force wind gusts in the Black hills of SD. ROB, is there any possible way for a system to lay down that much snow here in Winnipeg, or does the topography play a huge role in Epic snow amounts like that??
ReplyDeleteAnonymous.. Elevation certainly plays a role in some of those higher amounts being reported in the Black Hills.. due to lower freezing levels as well as an upslope component that enhances amounts. To put it in perspective, Winnipeg's largest snowstorms were March 1935 with 52 cm over 3 days (including 38 cm in one day alone) and the April 1997 blizzard that dumped 48 cm (19") over 4 days. Those represent half the amounts that the Black Hills are reporting.
ReplyDeleteOur biggest snowstorms in southern MB tend to occur either early in the season (Oct/Nov) or late (Mar/Apr) when there's more moisture in the atmosphere to produce higher snowfall amounts compared to the middle of winter. In October 1959, southwest MB was hit by two monster snowstorms between October 7-10th that dumped 70-100 cm of snow, including 85 cm in Brandon. I suppose we could have a similar setup further east which could hammer Winnipeg and the RRV... but that hasn't happened since records began in 1872 here. But again, with early season snowfalls, elevation plays a key role, and western MB is higher up than we are here which tends to give them better odds for those heavier snowfall amounts with early or late season storms.
Rob, Why is your obs "smoke" at 5:25?
ReplyDeleteLeon.. My site gets its current weather obs from the YWG airport. Airport is currently reporting "smoke aloft N + E" in its observation. Must be a local source since I don't see any smoke aloft myself.
ReplyDelete