Friday, August 30, 2013

Labour Day weekend outlook.. unsettled start, nice finish.

After a blast of late summer heat, the summer of 2013 will be winding down this weekend as we roll into September. The last weekend of the traditional summer will start off warm and humid Saturday, but things will become more unsettled as a cold front pushes across southern MB bringing a few showers and thunderstorms by the afternoon. This activity is expected to push across Winnipeg and the RRV Saturday afternoon into the evening, with brisk northwest winds ushering in cooler air Saturday night into Sunday. Sunday will see a return to sunshine, but temperatures will be noticeably cooler than the past 2 weeks with highs only around 20C, which is actually fairly close to normal for early September. This will set the stage for a beautiful end to the Labour Day weekend with sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 20s for holiday Monday.  Generally above normal temperatures are expected to continue for the first week of September.

30 comments:

  1. Cold frontal trof lying just west of Winnipeg this morning will push eastward to Ontario border this afternoon with a threat of severe tstorms over SE MB into NW Ontario (as well as northern MN and eastern ND) Timing of front doesn't look favorable for severe storms for Winnipeg as it should be east of the city by prime initiation time.. but we'll see if it slows down somewhat.

    Cooler weather comes in for tomorrow, but when I say cooler, I mean seasonable weather with highs near 20-21.. which is just about normal of this time of year. Sunny and beautiful finish to the holiday weekend with highs around 23-24C for Monday (EC's high of 28C for Monday looks overdone... most guidance supports highs in the 22-25C range.)

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  2. Out of curiosity, which year do people feel was the worse for thunderstorm activity in Winnipeg: 2011, 2012, or 2013? I wasn't here for the previous two years so I can't really compare them.

    I know it's been quite a weak few years though, and I'd suspect there might be something to that, except for the fact that the summers haven't been anything alike overall. (Ex. the very early start to summer last year vs. the very late start this year; or the dry heat of the last two years vs. this year's mid-summer cooldown)

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  3. Just to add: There was actually *constant*, very intense lightning around here late yesterday evening, just to the north of where I live in northwest Winnipeg. It was quite a light show. Unfortunately the storm was too far north, skirting the city. Still nice to watch it in the distance and all, but a shame it didn't impact us. So close!

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  4. Will August be above normal?

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  5. I also saw that steady lightning show last night and then looked at the radar and it was moving directly over Gimli, which is 72 KM north of the Winnipeg perimeter highway. Surprising how a storm so far away can still be very visible. Did not hear any thunder though, which is a clue of the distance.

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  6. Clouds have been a little slower to spread into Winnipeg this afternoon allowing more sunshine through early afternoon, and getting temps back to close to 30C again (30c at my site) Another beauty day to end August..

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  7. After Sunday it looks like we get back to some warmer weather for another week. Cool down starts next weekend?

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  8. Tstorms popping over western RRV along cold front, with another batch of storms developing over SE MB, nrn MN into NW Ontario in juicier airmass. Could see some action here in the city by 4 or 5 pm, although more severe activity will likely be with cells closer to Ontario border where dewpoints are higher.

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  9. Interesting....storms to west southwest south and east of Winnipeg but nothing around here.....Seems to me we've seen this before haven't we.

    The chance for storms not looking that great for Winnipeg right now as per the norm here.

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  10. Erm.... EC currently says there's a light snowshower in Winnipeg...

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  11. I see the E.C. observation for Winnipeg Airport is out to lunch right now. Current obs showing light snowshower. I don't think so.

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  12. EC's site as of 5:29 PM is reporting a "Light Snowshower". Uh...

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  13. That "snow shower" obs from YWG airport was obviously an error, but for some reason, a correction was never issued. That means that snowshower obs will become an official YWG observation in the climate archives, unless its deleted or changed. For the record, airport observations are taken by NavCanada observers, not EC. EC merely uses the observations that are posted, and has no control over them.

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  14. Another disappointing day for storm lovers in Winnipeg.. as storms mainly went to the west, south and east of us today.. after missing out on action to the north of us last night. The storm drought continues..

    Warm weather lovers however should be happy with the way August finished. YWG airport recorded another 30C day today with a high of 30.4C, our 7th 30C day in the past 8 days, and 10th since Aug 16th. That has helped boost our monthly average up to 19.2C or 19.3C depending on how much it cools off by midnight.. about 0.7 or 0.8C above normal for August (normal is 18.5C for the month). This after the first 2 weeks of the month averaged over 3C below normal. Quite the turnaround.

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  15. Certainly not seeing how we'll get a widespread killing frost this week. All that hype wasn't needed. It was suspicious given all the humidity we are still experiencing.. and it is just too darn early for heaven's sake.

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  16. Re:Out of curiosity, which year do people feel was the worse for thunderstorm activity in Winnipeg: 2011, 2012, or 2013?

    Each year seemed to have had its own lousiness when it comes to storms. Overall all 3 so far are on par IMO. 2011 was low frequency and low intensity, 2012 had better frequency but was still on the low side and there were very few "severe" thunderstorms, if any at all. The thing with 2012 is we had 2 decent in March of all times, with our earliest storm ever recorded on March 19, 2012. And then had another decent storm a week later. Some of those storms in March, 2012 were almost the best ones for the rest of that year. So far this year, we've seen more intense, better storms then last year and the year before, but the frequency has just sucked. So far we're at 10 thunderstorm days as of Sept 1st and normally we see about 21 days in a year. Go to a few places not that far away, and they're probably more than double that amount. Right now we're tied with the lowest amount of storms in a year, which hasn't been seen since the early 1950's (I can't remember the exact year). With it being September now, its hard to have any hope left for any kind of redemption for this year although September can see some good storms as late as towards the end of the month. I just find it startling (and annoying as a storm lover myself) that we've had to endure now 3 straight years of a lack of thunderstorm weather. I haven't been focusing on storms long enough to compare this period with any other in time, but statistically its been one of the worst in the last 60 years. Last year at this time we were hoping that next year would get better. Gonna have to say the same thing for 2014! At this point, things can't literally get worse, since we're already there. We'd have the worst luck ever and truly be the place where everything goes around us if this pattern continued next year. Here's hoping it doesn't.

    P.S. I think this year has been better than last year and the year before. Even though we've had fewer storms, what little storms we did get actually were pretty decent storms. Sometimes frequency isn't everything. When looking strictly at the frequency, the number of thunderstorm days, there is no difference between one rumble of thunder or a several hour event with lots of thunder and lightning in terms of a "thunderstorm day". A year could have lots of days where just a rumble of thunder occurred but not really anything more. With that being said though, chances are if you do have a high number of thunderstorm days in a year, quite a few of them will actually be good storms. I love storms so much and have a love hate relationship with them. Love it when they happen, hate it when we're constantly missed. Unfortunately the latter has been the norm lately. Hoping things will actually get better. That or move to somewhere where I'm not so deprived of one of natures most fantastic displays!

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  17. Good, detailed answer! As something of a storm lover myself (I've been keeping a personalized log of every storm I've seen since 2010 and plan to keep doing it), I've had quite a bit of misfortune myself with thunderstorms the last 5 or 6 years. Though as it's partly a result of my own personal choices, I'm pretty accepting of the fact. :)

    I was in England in 2011 and 2012, which has an oceanic climate not conducive to thunderstorm activity. In 2010, while Winnipeg was having a decent year, I was in Kitchener, Ontario. Storms continuously missed us to the north and south (sound familiar?) and the ones that didn't tended to be short-lived. Before that, 2008 and 2009 were quite weak years in Winnipeg as well. Good years will certainly happen here again; Winnipeg's climate is too extreme and changeable for any one trend to last forever. There's just no guarantee that it'll be next year, sorry to say.

    It probably would have been better here this year if it hadn't been for a) the very late spring and b) that protracted mid-summer cooldown. As soon as the heat and humidity returned in mid-August, so did the threat of storms - but unfortunately you need a lot of setups to make sure you get something. It's asking a lot for just two or three setups at the end of August to work out favourably for the city.

    At least I had August 18. The only storm in the whole month of August was also my favourite in years. And now that I'm permanently back in Canada, I expect to see many more like it going forward.

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  18. EC climate records are full of false positives with respect to snow events, not just in Wpg but other cities too. For example, hail is sometimes classified as snow. In Pincher Creek, AB, blowing dust is sometimes classified as snow.

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  19. Picture perfect end to the holiday weekend with plenty of sun today and afternoon temperatures of 22-24C in Winnipeg today after a chilly morning low of 4.5C at YWG airport this morning. GEM has been steadily scaling back high temps for today from that earlier optimistic prediction of 28C, now showing 23C for Winnipeg.

    Tomorrow we warm up to around 28C as we get a southwest flow ahead of a cool front pushing in from the north later in the day. This front will likely bring in some increasing cloud in the afternoon, but front should come through dry with no precip expected. Winds shift into the north by evening with cooler temps again for Wednesday (around 20C) with sunshine.

    We rebound again for Thursday with southwest winds pushing us into the upper 20s again, with another shot at 30C by Friday under mostly sunny skies. Staying warm and dry for next weekend with highs in the mid 20s, before hints of unsettled weather moving in by Monday with showers and thunderstorms possible.

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  20. Extensive area of cloud over southern SK and western MB spreading east this morning. Hopefully clouds thin out by the time they reach Winnipeg, otherwise our "mainly sunny" forecast is in jeopardy today.

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  21. Cloud dissipated nicely just before Winnipeg.. beautiful afternoon remains intact! Temps in the upper 20s but falling later this afternoon as increasing northerly winds usher in cooler air from the Interlake..

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  22. Yikes... Chilly start to the day with +3C at YWG airport as of 6 am. Nice rebound though today as temps climb back to the 20C mark this afternoon (about normal for this time of year) and then up to near 30C Thursday. Quite the turnaround from 3C this morning to 30C tomorrow!

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  23. Any good web cam repair men out there? Good head for heights, etc. etc.

    Is the CBC going out of the web cam business? Only one left AFAIK. The only operating ones are Live Eye, CWB, and the one covering the Leg and Osborne. Anyone know of more?

    It's a shame, I like checking web cams.

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  24. Box134... I noticed the same thing. I used to have six webcam images around Winnipeg on my webcam page, now I'm just down to two. I can't find the CWB WebCam shot anymore.

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  25. AWCN11 CWWG 041920 CCA
    Corrected summary weather statement issued by Environment Canada at
    2:15 PM CDT Wednesday 4 September 2013.

    Clear skies and light winds associated with an area of high pressure
    caused temperatures to fall into the single digits over much of
    Southern Manitoba. A new record low was established at Fisher Branch
    early this morning. The statistics are as follows:

    Location: Fisher Branch
    New record 0.2
    Old record 1.5
    Record year 1981
    Records began 1977

    End

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  26. The CWB is still alive. I get it at:

    http://wwc.instacam.com/instacamimg/WNNPG/WNNPG_l.jpg

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  27. Box134... Thanks for the link.

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  28. Distinct smell of smoke in Charleswood presumambly from stubble burning. Not the best day for burning with southerly winds of 30-40 kmh today funnelling up the RRV into Winnipeg.

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  29. Today is the hottest day during school (sept to June) since 1996!

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  30. City of Winnipeg
    3:23 PM CDT Friday 06 September 2013
    Severe thunderstorm watch for
    City of Winnipeg issued

    This is an alert to the potential development of severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds.

    Monitor weather conditions..listen for updated statements. If threatening weather approaches take immediate safety precautions.

    If you would like to report severe weather, you can call 1-800-239-0484. Please note, this phone number is only for reporting severe weather.

    A weak cold front pushing south from the Interlake is tapping an unseasonably warm and humid airmass over Southern Manitoba this afternoon resulting in the development of scattered thunderstorms. Although these storms will likely be widely scattered, any storms that do develop have the potential to become severe with damaging wind gusts to 100 km/h and large hail possible.

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