Monday, March 11, 2013

Cold week ahead.. no hint of spring yet..

The weather this week will be pretty much what we've seen over the last little while.. generally below normal temperatures with occasional bouts of light snow. A weak system passing through tonight will bring a chance of some flurries, but little or no accumulation is expected. High pressure will build in Tuesday into Wednesday bringing generally fair but colder weather. Thursday will see increasing clouds ahead of a developing Alberta clipper system that will bring a threat of some snow to southern Manitoba by Friday.. with a few cm possible. A reinforcing shot of cold air will follow in the wake of this system for the weekend, with temperatures well below normal. At this point, no signs of springlike weather are seen for southern Manitoba through next week. This is in sharp contrast to the weather exactly one year ago this week when a historic March heat wave spread over southern Manitoba and much of eastern North America.  In Winnipeg, 7 daily record highs would be set over the next 9 days, including the all time warmest March temperature of 23.7C on the 19th. A 25 cm snowpack in Winnipeg on March 10th disappeared by the 13th with one of the earliest onsets of spring in southern MB history.

60 comments:

  1. Scary. I wonder when the pendulum will swing to the warm side. April?

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  2. 16.0C in Port Weller, Ontario today which is once again the Canadian warmspot.

    Spring has already started in Eastern Canada.

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  3. Automated forecasts for Friday continue to be too optimistic for Winnipeg and RRV with no mention of potential snow as clipper system tracks into Dakotas. ECMWF and GFS clip Winnipeg with about 2-5 cm of snow while even the GGEM shows us on northern edge of precip shield with 1 or 2 cm. More snow likely near the US border and south into ND. We'll see if models trend south on this, but as it stands right now, be aware that Friday has potential to be a little snowier than current "sunny" forecasts indicate.

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  4. Least we not forget that last march we saw 2 memorable thunderstorms; one on the 19th and one on the overnight of the 27th. The 19th was (as far as records show) Winnipeg's earliest thunderstorm ever. And it wasn't just a rumble of thunder or 2 this was a full blown storm for March! The one on the overnight of the 27th was decent too with lots of lightning and loud thunder. Truly a remarkable march to remember! I remember feeling humidity with that warm spell as we had dew points climb into the mid teens on the 18-19th and overnight lows in the upper teens!!

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  5. That warm spell last year was one of those once in a lifetime weather events that I doubt we'll see again soon (although it would be awfully nice!) This upcoming weekend will be particularly tough to look back on. While we drop into the minus 20s this weekend with another cold snap, we were in the plus 20s a year ago with 30C readings in South Dakota. I was out in shorts and sandals by the 17th. Gotta stop looking back... too depressing!

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  6. 12Z NAM coming in with about 5 cm of snow for Winnipeg Friday. Closer to 10 cm over SW MB into southern RRV.

    Not liking the outlook for this weekend.. awfully cold air coming in behind this clipper. It's conceivable we could see overnight lows approaching -30C this weekend over parts of southern MB.

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  7. Hmmmm....seems like the more the month progresses the colder it's becoming. Something is definately not right with that picture.

    The way things are going now i'd be surprise if we see any melting this month.

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  8. Rob why is it so different from last March compared to this March, meteorologically synoptically speaking?

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  9. In other words what weather patterns, jet stream, etc is so different last year compared to this year causing the contrast?

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  10. 12Z GGEM has shifted north a bit and is now showing about 5 cm for Winnipeg Thursday night into Friday morning. So all guidance now leaning towards some snow for Winnipeg with clipper at end of week.

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  11. Anonymous..

    The jet stream this year has been stuck in a fairly persistent pattern from the Pacific NW through the central plains into the Great Lakes. The pattern has buckled sometimes as an upper ridge built over the west Coast, but that would only serve to set up a northwest flow of colder air over us. So basically, we've been locked in a below normal temperature pattern for a few months now, briefly moderated at times by passing clipper systems. Cold air has been reinforced this month by the more extensive and deeper snowpack over the Prairies this winter.

    Last year, we had an exceptionally unusual and prolonged northward push of the jet stream in mid March, which co-incided with an unusual lack of snow over the Prairies to allow unseasonably warm temperatures to surface much earlier than normal. The early loss of snowpack made it much easier for the ground to warm up and get temperatures more typical of late spring than late winter. Once you lose your snowpack and the ground starts heating up.. it becomes much easier to get those warmer temperatures to surface.

    Why the jet stream did what it did last year.. I don't know why. But sometimes the atmosphere will get blocked in a abnormal state for a prolonged period, leading to some exceptionally warm (or cold) outbreaks. There's been some speculation that the loss of Arctic sea ice is allowing for a greater frequency of blocking patterns to set up in the northern hemisphere, but that requires more research to establish a more conclusive link.

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  12. Is it ever going to be cold tonight. Forecasting around -18c

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  13. GFS drops to -29C tonight. Ensemble mean look to be around -28C. Pretty far out dude.

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  14. Still looks like no appreciable melting for the next 2 weeks at least.

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  15. The winter that would never begin followed by the winter that would never end.. Go figure.

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  16. Hey rob, I saw that brett Anderson released his spring outlook today it looks like we are in for above normal precipitation and near normal temperatures. Does that mean it could mean we could see more strong and severe thunderstorms through the spring season? I'm hoping that turns out as expected it has been such a long winter you know us severe weather lovers we like our storms.

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  17. Many models showing -24 to -26C tonight. Pretty chilly for March.

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  18. Hi,

    Any chance of snow on Friday?

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  19. Jeff.. Looks like we'll be seeing some snow Thursday night with a fast moving clipper.. perhaps a couple cm here in Winnipeg with 5 cm south and west of the city. Snow will be moving out Friday morning then clearing with colder temperatures.

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  20. Mike.. As much as we'd like to know what kind of severe weather season we may expect, it's impossible to predict this far out. Adequate surface moisture is just one ingredient for severe summer storms. You also need heat, lift , and shear, or at least an active jet stream to trigger and sustain severe storms. The overall upper pattern will dictate how active a severe storm season we'll have, and we just don't know that right now.

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  21. Rob,

    Looks like another more potent clipper coming for Sunday with perhaps 10 CM for us.

    What are your thoughts on that?

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  22. Mike, I can't speak for Rob but I doubt we'll see severe thunderstorms. I'm thinking we'll see a slightly below normal spring temp wise with a good possibility of cold rains or even spring snow events. Either way, its not shaping up to be a pleasant spring in my opinion. On the other hand, patterns can shift drastically.

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  23. Agreed Rob, thunderstorms are too isolated of events to predict this far out. And I have to point out that a snowy winter does not necessarily equal a stormy t-storm season. 2011 is a good example. It was a snowy winter as well and a bit of a wet Spring and who can forget the horrible storm season we had that year? We only had 2 days with thunderstorms in July and August combined; just as many as in March 2012!

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  24. I agree 100% on that. They way things are going, if this keeps up we'll be looking at the same thing in a month from now and that is all this snow on the ground.

    Being a Winnipegger all my life now which is 31 years you knew that sooner or later we were gonna pay for that fabulous weather in 2012 and here it is. 2012 was a year to remember weatherwise in a positive way with the exception of the last 3 months, 2013 is shaping up too be the complete opposite.

    Have we ever seen a March without plus temps, could be, but very hard to imagine that however we are certainly facing that possibility this month with the month become colder as it progresses with is in no way a positive sign.

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  25. I for one hope this year will be a good year for storms. Last year we saw those March storms which was almost the highlight of the year thunderstorm wise since the rest of year was disappointing IMO with many misses, almost like 2011 but not as bad. 2011 was much worse. As someone who has a passion for extreme weather (storms) sometimes Manitoba is wrong place to be for storms, frequency wise. Not like we don't get good ones once in a while but they seem rare sometimes compared to a lot of places not that far away. Its very hit and miss here many times I find. Storms are very hit and miss no matter where you are (unless its the jungle along the equator) but the frequency of storms actually hitting you I find disappointing here. Agree to disagree or not that's just how I feel. Can't do much about it since you can't control the weather. There's always moving to where they do see more storms if you love it that much, if that doesn't sound too vain!

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  26. Last year wasn't so bad for thunderstorms. Perhaps Winnipeg itself didn't get hammered too frequently, but there were enough around easily reachable by looking at the radar and going for a little drive.

    As for the spring, cold and damp (synoptic scale damp) is my guess.

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  27. For spring I still think near normal in terms of temperature, wet as well with the definite possibility of severe weather once May comes around I am guessing by Brett Anderson s predictions. Severe Weather is mostly common through Late Spring in SouthMB once the sun starts heating the ground and snowcover is gone. I assume so, a spring without thunderstorms would be the end of the world for me, would hate it.

    Then again we will have to wait and see how things turn out, I am hoping for a good severe weather season like 2005, 2007, and 2010 all over again.

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  28. Rob, John Wheeler on the Fargo/Grand Forks WDAZ TV station today showed a persistent low pressure system rotating over Hudson Bay called "the Polar vortex" that is responsible for sending down waves of cold air into our area. He mentioned it could persist for quite some time as it has in past years. Makes me indeed think of some nasty Spring months in years past. Hopefully it will move out or fall apart.

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  29. Guys check out the comparison on some of the models in terms of the polar vortex, one of the models are suggesting that it will disintegrate by the 23rd. Warmer air will invade into the region afterwards, tell me what you think... website below http://meteocentre.com/models/compar_models.php?map=na&lang=en&run=12&stn=PNM&&range=glb&hh=240

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  30. You can always tell who doesn't own a car (or at least a nice one), a house, and those who don't farm by who wants lots of severe weather. Wonderful to watch, as long as it's not over my house ;)

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  31. Hey Rob,

    I see more snow on Sunday/Monday.
    Will it be significant?

    Thanks

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  32. Anonymous, thats why I sometimes hesitate to say I have a passion for extreme weather because it usually almost always gets knocked by somebody. I own a car and a house and it doesn't deter me :) (now waiting for the comment that says something like well when your basement floods don't come crying to me or something)

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  33. And looking at the radar and/or having to get into the car to drive to a storm is NOT the same as it actually hitting you.

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  34. Jeff..

    Models still at odds about Sunday's system with GFS further south than GEM.. but it does look like we'll be seeing at least 5 cm here in Winnipeg from it.. with heavier amounts possible south of us. We'll have to see how models trend on this storm, but right now, looks like heaviest amounts will be over southern RRV. Winds will be picking up on the backside of storm as well, so blowing and drifting snow could be an issue Sunday night into Monday morning. Another slow Monday morning commute.

    Tomorrow morning commute will likely be slick as well. Snow amounts won't be all that much here in Winnipeg with tonight's clipper, perhaps a couple cm overnight into the morning, but it will be enough to slick roads up and cause some travel issues, especially outside the city. Sometimes, those minor snowfalls cause more problems than heavier snowfalls.

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  35. 20.3C in Ashcroft, BC yesterday. That is the first 20C of the year in Canada.

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  36. Sunday's system sounds a lot like the one on March 4th where the models we're at odds until the storm basically occured.

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  37. EURO and GEM models both showing about 5-10 cm for Winnipeg with Sunday's system, while GFS maintains bulk of snow mainly south of the US border. Given recent model performance, I would tend to believe the snowier solution for us, but we'll see how things trend over the next day or two. Whatever the case, sure not looking springlike for awhile.. :(

    As for tomorrow, looks like there will be a general area of light snow spreading over Winnipeg and northern RRV by the morning drive, with slightly heavier snow south and west of the city. Maybe a couple cm for the city by the afternoon, with 5 cm or so over southern RRV and up to 10 cm over SW MB. Cold temperatures and northerly winds will make for slick travel conditions.. so be prepared for slower commute times and slippery roads especially outside the city.

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  38. Battle of spring vs winter across ND today.. currently +19C over snowfree SW ND while it's -3C over Pembina.

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  39. Rob,

    What do you think are the chances of us not getting any melting between now and the end of this month?

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  40. >>What do you think are the chances of us not getting any melting between now and the end of this month?

    Do you mean days above freezing, or melting of the snowpack?

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  41. Stark contrast of temperatures still going on in the midwest US. 60 F in Bismarck, but go a bit north, and bam! 29 F in Minot.

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  42. If the GFS is right for snowfall next week (between 1 and 2 feet of snow), we must be headed for an ice age. Thank goodness it's still far out and could change

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  43. I pointed out a similar system on the last blog post that the GFS was showing, with 10 cm+. After a few runs, it pretty much disappeared. Wouldn't be surprised to see the same thing happen with the monster it's cooking up.

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  44. Have been looking at the long range, and don't believe how cold it is going to get. Like -30C windchills for the week of next week, and snow after snow. The colorado low coming in on the 18 to 19 that one looks just horrible I'm thinking another 20cm on this one. Geeze, the good thing about the coming snowfalls is that they will aid in more surface moisture once the late spring comes in (necessary ingredient for severe weather). Any long range forecast predictions on spring melting? Overall I am just longing for Spring!

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  45. Oops missed one! Just double checked a few of the models, and quite frankly I missed the monster out of them all and I agree with Connor the one on the 21 to the 24th! Is the GEM-GLB, and GFS trying to put us in an ice age? I hope not. If it turns out right we are going to have a lot of stuff to melt and the flood threat would be much higher than first thought. This will be a winter to forget! The most aggressive by far is the GFS. Visit this page... http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&mod=gfs

    We'll have to wait on more model runs to find out.

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  46. re: GFS snowfall forecasts for next week..

    18Z GFS has joined the party with a snowier solution for Winnipeg and southern MB for Sunday, so the trend is growing towards another snow event for us Sunday into early Monday. Again, possibly 5-10 cm indicated for Winnipeg at this point, but those amounts will likely change as we get closer to the event. Winds look to be an issue as well for Monday. Not a nice start to the work week.

    As for the 21-24th.. let's hope the GFS is just slightly off its rocker and such a scenario doesn't unfold. 4 straight days of snow over the RRV?! That would be a disaster. Ensembles are definitely hinting at another snow event during this time frame, so I suspect we will be seeing something later in the week, but at this point, I won't panic until we see some better consensus. Still a long ways out.

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  47. Re: earlier post about getting a melt before the end of the month.

    We still have not had one day above freezing yet this month (max of -1.1C on the 3rd), and it looks like we won't see one through next week as well.. which will put us into the last week of March before we get a chance to go above freezing. I checked Winnipeg climate stats, and there has been only one March since 1872 that we failed to reach the freezing mark.. way back in 1899 when the highest temperature all month was -1.7C (March 1872 had a max of 0.0C) Every March since then has had at least 1 day above freezing. That would be something else if our warmest ever March last year was followed by one of the coldest ever Marches this year.

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  48. By the way, the last time Winnipeg airport went above freezing was Jan 10th at +2.6C. We've now gone 63 straight days below freezing. No wonder this seems like the never ending winter..

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  49. The GFS and Ensemble have been trying for the last week to give us a big dump in the 7-10 day range, but it keeps getting moved back. I'm taking it with a grain of salt until the model runs become more consistent.

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  50. Yeah, Euro shows nothing for us at the end of the week.. I won't panic until the Euro does :)

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  51. Woodlands radar not working properly.. showing no echoes, but there is snow moving in west of Portage LP. Radar has been having issues for the past week or so due to hardware problems. May not be reliable until next week when they get new parts..

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  52. The words "polar vortex" strike a chill into my spine. All I can think of is that horrible year 2009, where it NEVER warmed up all spring and summer long. I hope that doesn't happen this year because my livelihood literally depends on warm weather!

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  53. That snow just does not want to move into Winnipeg this afternoon. Snowing upstream in Dauphin and just started in Portage LP.. so I still expect some light snow to move into the city by the drive home. Again, not much here in Winnipeg.. maybe a dusting to 1 cm or so.. more to our south and west.

    Looking more likely that we'll see more significant amounts with system late Sunday into Monday.. 5-10 cm at least here in Winnipeg, with potential for 15 cm or more as the endless winter of 2012-13 continues.

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  54. Hey Rob, I can't find any contact info anywhere on this site.....I'm wondering if you can message me at anarchamama@gmail.com about doing an educational with some kids?

    Thanks in advance,
    Heather

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  55. I talked with Brett Anderson on Twitter and he mentioned that this blocking pattern we are currently going through will likely have weakened by the 1st of April, but enough left that it could affect us with cooler temperatures until a week after the 1st which is the 8th of April. Glad I am going to Arizona in a Week, I will hopefully come back and see warmer weather by the 31st. The good news about April is that we will eventually start warming up through the early to mid part of the month. Let's hope!

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  56. Wow...if one would rely on E.C.'s forecast for Sunday and Monday you wouldn't know that a snowstorm is on it's way. And yet snow was in the forecast earlier this week for Sunday. gotta hate those automated forecasts.

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  57. Hi Rob,

    At what point do automated forecasts start at? Meaning is Mondays forcast automated or is it now forecasted by a person.

    Also, has the forecast now changed?
    I see WN has changed their Sunday forecast to now "close to 15cm" yet EC now says a mix of sun and cloud. Those are complete opposite forecasts!

    Thanks,

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  58. Rob has mentioned previously that the extended public forecast only takes daytime weather into account. The meteocode for Sunday does have snow but not starting until 8pm, so the conversion process to the public text product ignores the snow.

    http://spotwx.com/products/grib_index.php?model=meteocode&zone=r1.15&tz=-5&title=FPWG51&lat=49.89975&lon=-97.13749

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  59. Jeff.. Actually, all EC forecasts are automated now, it's just that forecasters are allowed to modify the forecasts within the first 48 hours of issue time (the first 2 days of the forecast). After that time, the forecasts go out as is, unmodified, and as you can see, computer forecasts can often change from one model run to another. This is where the human forecaster can really add some value by allowing for some uncertainty and minimizing the flip-flop factor. It would also help if automated forecasts were programmed with more smarts and based on ensembles instead of relying on a deterministic model that can change significantly from run to run.

    As for our next snow event later Sunday into Monday, all models are showing snow moving into southern MB, including Winnipeg. As usual, the NAM is the most aggressive with amounts, showing almost 25 cm for Winnipeg Sunday afternoon into Monday. GGEM and EURO are not quite as extreme with 5-10 cm.. while GFS is in between at around 10-15 cm. As Garth mentioned, due to a programming quirk with EC automated forecasts, nighttime precip is ignored, so that's why the forecast for Monday only has a 60% chance of flurries. In reality, the GGEM is forecasting about 5 cm of snow beginning Sunday afternoon and tapering off Monday morning. I'll have an updated blog post on this storm system this evening.

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