Saturday, December 08, 2012

Snow spreading into Winnipeg and Red river valley today, turning colder for Sunday

Snow is spreading into the Red River Valley this morning including Winnipeg as a weak system passes across southern Manitoba. About 5 cm of snow is expected in Winnipeg by the afternoon with higher amounts of 10 cm possible mainly south of the city. As the system clears tonight cold weather will move into southern Manitoba with temperatures into the minus 20s for overnight and Sunday into the first part of the work week.

40 comments:

  1. About 4 cm of snow reported in the Winkler area so far this morning.

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  2. Somewhere between 5 and 10cm here in Altona. More coming.

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  3. Looks like the southern half of the city may get the highest accumulation the way the band is shaping up

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  4. Hey Rob,

    Do you think the snow will be done mid afternoon? anymore after that?

    thanks,

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  5. 5 cm here so far

    JJ

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  6. Would estimate 10cm of snow in Altona. Had a couple of heavy bands move right over the area this morning.

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  7. I'm on the north side of the city McPhillips/#8 and we got maybe 2cm but that would be pusing it. JJ what part of the city are you in?

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  8. Sorry forgot to mention Daryl; I'm in River Park South.
    JJ

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  9. 2-3 cm in central parts of the Winnipeg.. which is probably representative for most of the city outside the south end. 2-5 cm would have verified well for the city.

    Daniel

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  10. Grant total 5.5 cm River Park South (averaged over a dozen measurements). The southern tip of the city got clipped by that persistent heavier band late morning that the rest of the city missed..

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  11. I'm also from River Park South and we got a good 5cm. Nice and white outside.

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  12. Wow. The various forecast temperatures are all over the map for next 2 days.

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  13. Rob,

    i've noticed snow in the forecast for Wednesday.

    Does that look similar to today's snowfall?

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  14. -32/-40 in Saskatoon, ouch!
    Again airport here not representative of the city at -27°C while most stations in the city are at least 5 degrees warmer.

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  15. Seems like Saskatoon has a similar issue as Winnipeg though. I'm seeing on wundermap that every other station in the city is at least 5 degrees warmer. Interesting..

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  16. Really? I just looked at the WeatherFarm map for Saskatoon and the airport is the warmest at -25.3C. Every other station is equal or colder. The exact opposite of our situation in Winnipeg.

    Oh wait, EC says -31.6C for Saskatoon. Odd. I even zoomed right in on the WeatherFarm map to make sure it was the airport location, and just tried it again. They must be having problems.

    Anyway, you can't compare a WMO airport reading with a backyard station, especially on a cool winter morning. Standards exist for a reason.

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  17. Oh wunderground. Yes, that one works.

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  18. You always have to expect a fair amount of urban heating especially during calm clear nights. What raises concern is when open country sites outside the city record warmer values as well. Part of the problem on these bigger airports on the Prairies, is the total lack of trees, shrubs and taller grasses. With even a shallow layer of snow, the location is turned into a tundra landscape. This nearly frictionless surface allows for a laminar flow and cold air drainage - even with wind speeds as high as 10-15 km/h (which should be enough to keep things stirred up). This also often produces outlandish windchill values. This extreme low level cooling doesn't seem to be much of an issue with sites in eastern Canada and the midwestern US.

    Temperatures between -23 to -25 C pretty common in our region right now. Winds will soon turn to the south and that should halt the drop at YWG. Cooling will continue along the southern flank of the city maybe to -26/27 C in some spots, before clouds and increasing SW gradient at 925 hPa up to 30 kts (causing steady surface winds of 15-20 km/h) start increasing our temperatures after 3 am.

    Btw, that system took an even further turn south turn than yesterday model runs were indicating. A large piece of real-estate from Grafton to south of Fargo looks to have only 3-5 cm of snow (I'll wait for tomorrow's snow cover analysis). Snow band over the Twin Cities weakening as low coming up the Ohio Valley becomes dominant. Strong LLJ punching into SW Ontario supporting large region of elevated convection. 925 temps progged in the low teens with Td's in the 10-12 C range over SW Ontario tomorrow morning. Wouldn't that feel nice?

    Daniel

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  19. edit..

    The 925 hPa flow is progged at 15 kts (30 km/h) by 12Z

    Daniel

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  20. Daniel,

    I've noticed snow in the forecast with a big warmup Wednesday.

    Does that look like a similar snowfall to the 2-5CM that fell yesterday, for us Wednesday or something bigger?

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  21. Well there's a bigger discussion here I guess. Airport locations are a very good representation of the majority of prairie landscape, while farmyards are like islands of shelter, smaller versions of our urban islands. So do we want our forecasts for the general landscape, or for our sheltered islands, or both?

    Interesting...right now the Wunderground map shows YWG being 1-2C warmer than many other stations within the perimeter. Perhaps the open space is allowing the wind to vent out the colder air (more mixing), while the sheltered locations still have cool air hiding in backyard 'pools'.

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  22. The CBC forecast graphic has a high of -22 C for today. Yikes!

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  23. Heading back to Winnipeg after enjoying a few days in Niagara. 11c and raining this morning with green grass and puddles. Still like spring down there. Bracing myself for an abrupt return to reality by evening.

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  24. And yes Daniel.. it did feel nice. :)

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  25. Daniel,

    It looks like we will be getting more snowfall Wednesday.

    Does that look anything significant in terms of accumulations or minor amounts like 5CM or so?

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  26. Glad to hear you got a nice break Rob ;)

    Re anonynmous..

    It depends on tillage practices.. tall standing stubble (around 30 cm) on fields can considerably alter the surface energy budget, increase surface roughness and turbulent exchanges. The native vegetation around here was a mixture of trees and taller grasses which have an even greater effect. In fact, diversifying land use in the RRV - by having some woodlots and more shelter-belts, along with different cropping practices could potentially have a large impact on our climate here.

    Daniel

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  27. Re Wednesday..

    At this point most models are giving 2-3 cm including NAM and all Canadian guidance in warm advection band. GFS shows a better defined low tracking a bit further south. It generates a stronger snow band with QPF in the 10-12.5 mm range for southern RRV.. that solution right now is an outlier. American guidance and raw GEM data give temps as warm as -6 C for Wednesday afternoon. SCRIBE on the otherhand keeps more of an inversion with highs lower than -10 C. We'll see how much warm air surfaces over the sparser snow cover in N Dakota.

    Daniel

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  28. Daniel,

    looking at forecasts for the next week or so it looks like we will stay well below normal.

    Are we expected to remain well below normal at least through Christmas?

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  29. Actually got a good 2 cm.. Didn't see that coming.

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  30. Next system for tonight into Wednesday looks like another 5 cm-ish type event for Winnipeg and area. Models are pretty consistent that bulk of snow will fall between midnight tonight and noon Wednesday, with about 2-4 mm melted precip for Winnipeg, or about 3-8 cm of snowfall assuming 15-20:1 snow:water ratios.

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  31. BTW.. GEM Global a little more intense with system with swath of 10 cm further south of Winnipeg towards int'l border. We'll see if new runs trend in that direction..

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  32. Rob,

    Based on the latest it looks like we will remain well below normal for the next week or so.

    Are we expected to remain below normal through Christmas?

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  33. Anonymous.. I haven't looked too closely at the longer range, but based on some quick research, it appears that we may be trending towards normal by Xmas. But it's very tough to say with much certainty as the guidance shows considerable uncertainty. As such, I'd rather not try to speculate one way or the other.

    I prefer discussing nearer term events where there's a better chance of some predictive skill. Speaking of which, RGEM has trended a bit higher with amounts for Winnipeg/southern MB overnight into Wednesday with a chance of 10 cm or so mainly south of the TransCanada.. and about 5-8 cm possible for Winnipeg. Timing remains the same.. starting around midnight, peaking around 6 am, and tapering off by midday Wednesday.

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  34. Rob,

    BTW, thanks for all the great info...really appreciate it.

    Beside the snowfall tomorrow, i've noticed that things are looking much calmer for the rest of the week and the weekend.

    Any potential big storms for us within the next 7 days or so?

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