After some windy and seasonably cool weather, temperatures will be on the upswing again for Friday and Saturday over southern Manitoba as southerly winds spread warmer air back into the area. Temperatures in the teens Thursday will warm into the mid 20s Friday and upper 20s Saturday as brisk southerly winds develop. That however will be the last of warm weather for awhile as a cold front pushes through on Sunday, bringing significantly cooler air into southern MB for Sunday through much of next week. High temperatures next week will only be in the low to mid teens, along with a possibility of some morning frost depending on cloud cover and wind conditions.
Some scattered showers may accompany the cooler weather next week as well, but overall there doesn't appear to be much in the way of significant rainfall over the next week or so. Things are becoming quite dry over southern MB with only 2 mm of rain in Winnipeg over the past 4 weeks, following a much drier than normal summer, the 10th driest on record in Winnipeg.
Interesting WMO announcement today.. they are officially rejecting Libya's long standing record of 58C (136F) in Sept 1922 as the world's hottest temperature. A WMO investigation revealed obvious problems with the temperature reading based on location and climatology, as well as possible human error. The title of world's hottest temperature now belongs to Death Valley CA, with a 56.7C (134F) reading in July 1913. Click on my name for more details..
ReplyDeleteInteresting timing of this announcement given the recent killing of the US ambassador in Libya.
Rob,
ReplyDeleteThe probabilistic seasonal forecast shows a high chance (80-90%) of above normal temperatures for Sept-Nov. I don't like attempting anything past 5-6 days, but do you think we'll rebound to warm temps again after the cooldown next week. I see NOAA is also forecasting above normal temps, and a weak El Nino developing.
Garth..
ReplyDeleteCPC is indicating liklihood of below normal temperatures over southern MB over the next 6-14 days which would take us into the last week of September. We have an amplified pattern setting up next week with a ridge over western Canada and a trough over the Great Lakes which supports below normal temperatures for us.
After that, I have no idea.. but odds are we *should* get back to an above normal pattern again. Arctic sea ice is at an all time low, so it's going to be a while before we get some deep Arctic air developing. That, along with our extended warmth of the past year, should mean a delayed start to winter, with above normal temps likely into November. But I always dread making forecasts that far out, since things can always change. However, given the exceptional warmth of the past year, the record low Arctic ice, and a developing El Nino.. one would think the odds of above normal temperatures through December are higher than below normal.
By the way, I learned today that the local Winnipeg office has requested the erroneous 1.0 mm precip readings be removed from the official climate record, and national climate staff in Toronto will likely be doing that.
ReplyDeleteThanks Rob.
ReplyDeleteGood news about the erroneous 1mm in the climate record. Maybe they can do something about Fisher Branch as well.
Thank you! Now if only this could be done regularly!
ReplyDeleteWas the 0.5 mm yesterday erroneous as well?
ReplyDeleteCTV is forecasting 27C for tomorrow and 17C for Saturday.
ReplyDeletehttp://imgur.com/fNcm7
I don't understand why the media doesn't just use the EC forecast. Honestly.
Oh, I think CTV just forgot to advance the days ahead.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of quality control... Yellowknife had an AMAZING low of 92.8C yesterday.
ReplyDeleteWith light winds and cool airmass in place, all guidance is overestimating temps. Given dewpoints in the -1 to 1 C range.. would expect frost in some locations by morning. NWS issued frost advisory as far south as Fargo for tonite. Winds turn more southerly between 2-4 am so the airport will probably remain above freezing. Best chance for frost would be on the southwest flank of the city.
ReplyDeleteDaniel
A 'bone-chilling' low of -0.6 at my place south st vital at 6 AM. There's frost in fields and on roofs, but I don't see any/much frost in yards.
ReplyDeleteJust a touch of frost on my windshield this morning in Windsor Park.
ReplyDeleteA low of 0.1C at my place, with light frost on the lawn and rooftops. A low of -1.0C at YWG airport officially ends the 2012 growing season for Winnipeg at 106 days (last freeze at YWG was May 30th at -0.1C)
ReplyDeleteThat's a very deceiving statistic however. There were only two light freezes at the airport in May, -0.1C on the 30th and -0.7C on the 16th. The last real hard freeze (-2C or lower) was April 26th at -7C. Using that date, the growing season was more like 140 days this year.. which is longer than usual (122 days) Certainly looking at how most everything has been harvested already this year, one can see the effects of an earlier than normal start to the growing season, accelerated by our record warm March.