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Large hail hits parts of Winnipeg
Saturday evening June 9 2012 |
A severe thunderstorm with large hail tracked over Winnipeg between 9:45 and 10:15 pm Saturday evening, dropping hail the size of golf balls and even tennis balls over parts of the city. The largest hail appears to have fallen over the west end of the city in St James and Charleswood, with golf ball size hail (4 cm) at my place between 9:50-9:55 pm. The storm was part of a line of severe thunderstorms that developed rapidly Saturday evening over the southern Red River valley and tracked northeast. This particular storm formed rapidly south of Sanford around 9:15 pm, and within 30 minutes was tracking into the southwest part of the city dumping heavy rain and destructive hail (2nd radar image). The storm brought 2.5 cm hail to the YWG airport at 9:54 pm before moving over the north part of the city and off towards Lake Winnipeg. The severe storms were part of a highly volatile environment Saturday with plenty of instability and wind shear to produce severe thunderstorms. The day spawned
numerous reports of severe weather with mainly large hail and heavy rain. Unsettled but cooler conditions are forecast for Sunday.
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Hailstorm approaches southwest Winnipeg around 9:45 pm
Perimeter at McGillivray (photo Audry V) |
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Severe storm at 9:40 pm intensifying south
of Winnipeg |
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Severe storm with hail hitting west end
of city 9:50 pm June 9 2012 |
Rob,
ReplyDelete2 questions...
with this threat of severe weather all done with when could we be looking at our next potential severe weather? i would say probably not until the end of next week perhaps...
and i would assume we are running above normal so far through 10 days this month, with that said what are we looking at in terms of normal above normal or below normal weather, active weather for the 2nd half of the month?
Reed Timmer saw a tornado in extreme southeast MB after dark (no cell service so it wasn't called in). Just looking at the lighnting display and it was nuts down there (between Hadashville and the US border), can hardly see the ground for all the strikes on the screen.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous.. Severe chances look minimal this week with below normal temperatures and a storm track further south over the central Plains. As far as the second half of June is concerned, too tough to say what severe weather threat will be like. Long range guidance is pointing to above normal temps to our south and east, with below normal temps over the West Coast, which would put us in a more favoured area for active storms through the Northern plains, southern Prairies.. but that's simply an educated guess at this point.
ReplyDeleteStrange day yesterday.. things didn't go where I thought they would, things went where I wasn't expecting. Very tough day to get a good handle on. Cap definitely was a bigger factor than expected in the southwest, and elevated stuff was more intense. Another example of Mother Nature showing us who's really in charge..
ReplyDeleteAre showers supposed to redevelop today or is EC out to lunch again? I think I'll just read robs blog for an accurate forecast or if worse comes to worst, I'll just look out my window.
ReplyDeleteAny thoughts on why EC has been so abyssmal with the forecasting lately?
Showers will redevelop this afternoon, however there's certainly a chance that Winnipeg will be right on the western flank of the main band. Tough call, a difference in position of 40km could mean the difference between not much and a 1/2".
ReplyDeleteHas EC been dismal lately? I haven't noticed any hugely out to lunch forecasts as of late.
As Brad mentioned, a few showers are expected to redevelop over Winnipeg this afternoon, but heaviest band is expected over SE MB. Current radar shows a line of heavier precipitation developing over northern Minnesota into the Sprague region which will likely persist through the afternoon with 25mm or more possible along the MB/Ontario border cottage country areas. A secondary area of lighter showers has developed over central ND which will likely push into RRV/Winnipeg this afternoon with lighter amounts.. perhaps 2-5 mm.
ReplyDeleteThunderstorms in Morden right now.
ReplyDeleteRainband west of city edging into western suburbs now with some lightning and thunder noted. General rainfall amounts in band have been 2-6 mm to our west so far, expect about 5-10 mm as band goes through.
ReplyDeleteHeavy downpour in Charleswood with lightning.. Peak rain rate of 99 mm/hr. 4 mm of rain so far.
ReplyDeleteModels, especially the GFS, are showing an active thunderstorm pattern late this week and into the weekend. Another trough moving onshore with SW flow aloft developing in the Northern Plains and Southern Prairies.
ReplyDeleteThey just showed your golf ball sized hail picture on WDAZ weathercast credited to Robs blog. You have gone international now. The weathercaster joked how the insurance companies up in Winnipeg will be real busy tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteRob,
ReplyDeletequestion....
How much of a role dou you think that decaying MCS yesterday morning had to do with yesterday's expected tornado event not panning out or was simply just the fact that the cap was stronger than expected?
As Derek mentioned, models show active thunderstorm pattern later in the upcoming week..
ReplyDeleteIs there any indication of possible severe weather weather as well later in the week?
Did Kenora, Ont really recieve 82mm of rain yesterday?
ReplyDeleteWow.. yes, Kenora did get 82 mm of rain yesterday. Quite a bit of rain over NW Ontario with that convective band to our east.. including 61 mm at Sioux Lookout and 54 mm at Ear's Falls.
ReplyDeleteI picked up another 9 mm overnight on top of the 10 yesterday, and 7 mm Saturday.. things quite soggy out there again.
Cool.. Rob's blog on WDAZ! Now if I can get mentioned by Tom Skilling on WGN, then I've hit the big time :)
ReplyDeleteAnonymous.. I'm still scratching my head about what happened (or more accurately, didn't happen) Saturday. The role of the morning MCS is an intriguing question. I thought it actually would have helped the tornadic potential by weakening the cap and providing some outflow boundaries. But the cap held firm. I'm wondering if the slightly lower dewpoints (upper teens rather than low 20s) and cooler temps north of the warm front just didn't produce the degree of instability we needed to break the cap. Brad V. also noted he thought the convective bases were too high to promote tornadic development. Finally, it could have been just a matter of timing.. where large scale ascent provided by the incoming jet max was delayed until evening over the RRV/SE MB, rather than late afternoon over SW MB where tornadic potential was greater. Lots of questions and I'm willing to hear other theories about why things didn't go as expected over SW MB. One thing's for sure, I don't think I would have the guts to downplay the situation should a similar setup present itself again.
ReplyDeleteGoing to feel more like fall out there today.. single digit temps to our northwest with gusty northwest winds. Only +3C with rain over the Riding Mtn area.. that's getting awfully close to wet snow territory!
ReplyDeleteNAM also giving a low of +1.5C for Winnipeg tonight with clearing skies and light winds. Might be a touch of frost in some areas tonight, although the recent rains and return southerly flow by morning should help minimize the frost threat.
As Rob mentioned, the bases were quite high on Saturday. Unfortunately, I think the simple fact is that the cap held firm all day. By late evening, surface-based storms were able to fire right on the warm front, however as they pushed northeastwards, they very, very quickly became elevated. For whatever reason, the cap was Southern Manitoba's safety officer. As most have seen, nothing stopped the elevated storms from being quite organized and providing heavy rain and extremely large hail. While chasing I was actually quite impressed at the sheer number of obvious hail shafts visible.
ReplyDeleteOne thing that may have impacted the day was the ongoing convection over the southern Interlake. Most of the models missed it, and the NE turning easterly flow was likely advecting some of the cooler air southwards, keeping temps and dewpoints a little lower than forecast. It's both a blessing and a curse; for a weather enthusiast, it was unfortunate to see an environment -so- primed for tornadoes not be taken advantage of. For the general public, it was definitely a good thing.
Reed Timmer and I were chatting about it, and down near the triple point (where we were hanging out), it was a deceptive day when it came to severe weather. Clouds rolled in mid-afternoon and it was a little bit humid and not particularly hot. Most average people wouldn't have even thought of thinking about severe weather with how the conditions were. Should storms have fired, I think a lot of people would have been caught off guard at the severity of them. It certainly wasn't 30+ degrees and sticky out, which is what many people think of when they think about severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.
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I'll add a few shots from the chase to the comments. Here's two that cover the start and the end of our chase.
First, while we were on our way to our target location, a line of storms was developing to our north along the elevated warm front. They had pretty decent structure and ended up being warned for rainfall accumulations: https://img.skitch.com/2012061...
Second, while we may not have seen a tornado, we certainly saw an absolutely gorgeous sunset: https://img.skitch.com/2012061...
Oh...it truncated the links. If you head over to the comments on our latest blog post, you can see some photos as they're posted: http://cl.ly/HIXJ
ReplyDeleteRob, I saw the WDAZ weather portion that mentioned your blog. Historically I have followed their forecasts and respected them for being far more accurate than E.C. (while bearing in mind the distance in between us can create some differences in our respective weather. I have also E-Mailed John Wheeler on occasion with questions and found him very responsive and helpful.Enjoy the notoriety.
ReplyDeleteHeavy snow in Gillam right now.. 11 cm past 4 hours, currently 1/8SM +SN. A lovely June day in northern MB.
ReplyDeleteLightning associated with those cells north of the city moving through Gimli/Interlake areas..
ReplyDeleteRob your site with Connor's and other comments and AWMs with Scott, Matt et al, delivered great excitement for those of us shut ins. Following along with Brad , and the AWM chase/twitter team thru yesterdays action proved how fortunate we are compared to a few years ago. During the Pipestone event in 07 updates from the EC Radar bore little resemblance to yesterdays live feeds from AWM Twitter team and TVN's remarkable screens. Location down to street level , and LIVE detail available on their site. Thanks to you, Brad and AWM team.
ReplyDeleteI will pass on some TVN screens one was able to capture as the storm passed thru Winnipeg after Scott and others couplet was on the way and one could actually adjust the translucent TVN screen right down to the neighborhood level . When something with that potential is approaching in the dark it was great to see that the worst was by us before the local and national media were equipped to tell us to take cover.
PS Thanks to whomever suggested the TVN link (might even have been Justin and Dave on an earlier chase.
Don
Thanks Don.. you're right, the internet and social networking sites have changed the way we can communicate with the public regarding severe weather as it's happening. Twitter is becoming especially helpful.. both in getting the message out to the public and getting reports back. As you say, it's a far cry from what we were seeing even 5 years ago.. It also demonstrates how modern communication is moving past dissemination methods that EC is currently using, and how EC really needs to focus more on these modern communication methods to get their message out.
ReplyDeleteHey guys, I was out chasing althroughout with my dad as the driver Saturday and we ended up driving to Pilot Mound to see supercells develop. Although nothing happened later until in the evening long after I got home. I was surprised nothing developed, it probably had something to do with the strength of the cap and low clouds. Even though it was a dissapointing turnout, I ended up meeting Reed Timmer in the Esso station. Asked him about what he thinks about later this summer, and he said he will be back chasing a lot, it looks to be an active storm season from his perspective. I don`t think I saw Brad though.... I also got an autograph and saw his really cool chase vehicle. We followed the chasers for a while after, before they told us to head back, as it would get quite dangerous shortly. Although nothing happened where we were, it ended up hitting later while at home. Cannot wait for another chase!
ReplyDeleteWould be interesting to see a map of QPE for southern Manitoba and NW Ontario. The chance for heavy rain was hinted at a week out by the GFS, with the front stalling and with good convergence from the LLJ. It could have been worse for Winnipeg.. that big MCS just missed us Sunday morning. The 37 mm at your site puts us on pace for normal June precip, but of course doesn't take into account the melted water equivalent from those big hailstones.
ReplyDeleteDaniel
Daniel
GFS continues to show an active period. It's hinting at storm potential on Thursday, then again Saturday night/Sunday. Severe potential is there both instances.
ReplyDelete63 mm of rain in Sprague yesterday as well.. Weatherbug sites reported 30-40 mm in that east-west band of heavy rain through the southern Interlake Saturday extending from southern Lake Manitoba through Tuelon to southern Lake Winnipeg.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, looking at the animation of the storms Saturday evening, it looks like that big hailer that hit Winnipeg was a left moving supercell that split off a storm complex down around Morris.
FYI - of interest is a very recent update by one of our long term forecast experts... mainly a more stormy regime through 22-24 of June then drier and warmer. Of course this is E ND and NW MN centric....and most of us are drier than you are....
ReplyDelete------------------------
A brief update to my June 6th missive that stated "In the more immediate future - through the first ~half of June, the above normal temperature and precipitation pattern should continue." Although this appears to be occurring in spades, most of the FGF CWA remains in a precipitation deficit for the past few weeks. True story! The two main axes of above median precipitation extend through the Devils Lake basin, and parts of the Red River Valley. Our local area is wet, but most areas are not. Where the rains have been heaviest, it has been 'cooler', most notably the Devils Lake basin and the Baudette / Roseau areas.
From the composite standpoint this months precipitation pattern has been looking like 1981 and 2000, with 1983 and 2006 best reflecting in the temperatures. Hence the big risk; a lot of what I'm going on continues to hinge on this splitting out precipitation and temperature from the group composite.
Since June 6th, the SST data shows a rapid surge of warming (TAO and satellite show this) in the west Pacific and the MJO has responded. The latest data suggests the MJO has helped the recent spate of significant rains, but is now moving into a sector that supports the cool down and decrease in rainfalls. As with most [global] meteorological signals, the MJO is bimodal. So as one mode weakens and moves across South America, a second wave is developing over the Indian Ocean. If the dynamic MJO forecasts are correct, the dry & cool transition will be short lived this go round, as is advertised by the weather models. The weakening MJO will be crossing the Atlantic then onto Africa in the June 15 - 18 time frame. This is a secondary northern plains effective position to enhance rainfall. Meanwhile the second wave intensifies over the western Pacific, also an area that can enhance US precipitation.
There is a very robust trough over southeast Asia and quite the hunk of tropical moisture being ingested by the lower mid latitude jet. The CPC 200 mb potential velocity analysis through June 9th shows the MJO developing in the IO / west Pacific as the old signal moves across South America. The GAAM has peaked and appears to be collapsing. This supports the 8 - 14 day outlook of the east Pacific trough reforming and a continuation of at least median to above precipitation.
Based on the working composites, the "wet period" will last through about June 22nd - 24th then we'd see a significant decrease in the frequency of rain events.
So, the previous discussion seems to be working out about as well as these things can. MJO enhanced events - at least using the composite timing - peak during the next 10 - 14 days. Beyond that as the atmospheric impacts of the current positive SSTA surge dissipate, MJO activity decreases and precipitation returns to a more normal or below mode during early July.
Correspondingly temperatures will, on balance, be more "normal" [typical one / two day spikes understood] before more consistent above normal temperature pattern sets in for July and August.
2 week departure from normal precipitation ending June 11th at 12Z. Most of the CWA has been drier than normal. The Devils Lake basin and portions of the Red River Valley from around Casselton through Grand Forks up to Roseau are nomral to above, otherwise it's still quite dry.
Thanks for the info Dan.. hope it works out. I'm OK with a trend towards hotter and drier weather for the summer! (with the occasional storm to keep us weather nuts interested!)
ReplyDeleteWith all the low level moisture around and elevated dewpoints, any clearing tonight with light winds may lead to areas of fog developing overnight instead of frost. Something to be aware of..
ReplyDeleteI was looking at the GFS 8 Day Forecast, 0.5 degree resolution on SpotWeather for my place at Bruce and whytewold. Thunderstorm potential is there Wednesday Night, Thursday Night, Saturday and on Tuesday All severe thunderstorm potential. As Derek said severe thunderstorm potential is there those days. It's also forecasting total rainfall amounts near 91 mm by 1 pm Tuesday Next Week. Don't you think models are overplaying the amounts a little?
ReplyDeleteRob,
ReplyDeleteQuestions.....
Severe weather seems possible late this week and into the weekend, but are we looking at the same dynamics at anytime this week or this weekend that we had last Saturday in trems of tornadic potential?
And do you think the threat of severe weather will present itself this week or this coming weekend or could it be the models overplaying the situation?
Mike.. Yeah, probably a little overdone. Models can often overdo precip amounts when convection is forecast. Trouble is, they can go from 100 mm one run to 10 mm the next depending on how the model handles the convective scheme on each model run. Highly variable and inconsistent. Better to consult ensembles for a more conservative and general outlook, and then use short term models as you get closer to the event (although they can be highly variable from run to run as well in convective scenarios).
ReplyDeleteRob....
ReplyDeleteWhat are ensembles? Could you give me an example of a few websites, all the ones I know are meteocentre, twisterdata, and HRRR.
20 CM of snow in Gillam Monday!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/storm_watch_stories3&stormfile=Record_snowfall_in_Gillam__Manitoba_11_06_2012?ref=ccbox_homepage_topstories
@Anon: From what it looks like right now, there's very little chance of a recurrance of Saturday's extremely favorable conditions for tornado development. One of the main reasons, as far as I can see this far out, is that CAPE values are expected to be significantly lower than the 4000-6000 J/kg forecasted last weekend (more around the 1000-1500 J/kg range). Shear also doesn't look quite as favorable. It's important to remember that even though conditions may not be favorable, any organized thunderstorm can potentially produce a tornado.
ReplyDelete@Mike: Ensemble forecasts are model outputs that rely on statistical relationship between many possible outcomes. An ensemble model will take the initial conditions at model run time and run through the forecast period multiple times, slightly altering things each time. Each run is an individual member of the ensemble. Once all the different solutions are found, statistical relationships are then found between all the members and a probabilistic forecast can be constructed. A common ensemble model is the NAEFS (North American Ensemble Forecast System), which is available on EC's WeatherOffice page at http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/index_e.html [Click on Analysis & Modeling -> Ensemble Forecasts (NAEFS)]
Was there any frost in Southern Manitoba this morning, apart from the hilly areas? I see that Wasagaming dipped to -2 (but they always have chilly nights).
ReplyDeleteAndy..
ReplyDeleteFalcon Lake reported a low of 0C, and Piney reported some light frost with a low of +1.5C. Weatherfarm sites show a few spots in the southern RRV got down to +1c last night. Emerson hit +1.1C, and Pilot Mound was +0.8C. With clear skies and light winds, I'm sure there was some patchy ground frost in those areas, but likely nothing damaging.
Mike..
ReplyDeleteLast night's GFS backed off precip amounts for Winnipeg to just over 20 mm through Tuesday, down slightly from their 100+ mm from yesterday. Today's run is up to 46 mm. This just illustrates how variable and unreliable model precip forecasts can be, especially when convection is the main driver. Suffice to say that the potential for thunderstorms with heavy rain is there over southern MB over the next few days, especially Thursday, Saturday and next Monday/Tuesday. How much one particular spot will see is impossible to say at this point. Ensembles point to an average of about 20-40 mm for Winnipeg through Tuesday.. a conservative but realistic first estimate. That's not to say some places in southern MB will not see 100 mm over the next week.. it's possible. But whether or not Winnipeg will see that much is still too early to say.
Brad did a good job of explaining what ensemble forecasts are... they are really the best way to look at long range forecasts. You can access Winnipeg's NAEFS ensemble output under my main website home page under MAPS/MODELS>>ENSEMBLES>>15 DAY EPS.
Thank's rob, I definitely will be interested in how things play out over the next few days in regards to thunderstorm potential and rainfall totals. Any threat for severe storms during the period?
ReplyDeleteRob,
ReplyDeleteWhere do you get your weather data for Falcon Lake? I know there is a station on Royal island, but that is still quite far to the SE, and in Lake of the Woods.
Smoke's visible from the CTV cam...wonder which building's on fire now?
ReplyDeleteCBC said on their live blog section that it's on Springfield Road and they're heading to it.
ReplyDeleteOh my God...it's on the CBC's Kildonan cam now. Click my name for the image at 5:30 PM if anyone's looking back. They're showing it on their TV broadcast too.
ReplyDeleteHoly crap...visible from Polo Park! My name has the image at 5:37 PM.
ReplyDeleteWouldn't be surprised to see Global putting their news chopper to good use seeing what's actually on fire. Visible on 4 cams (CTV's, CBC's on Osborne, Polo Park on the Kiltarton Towers, and the Kildonan cam).
ReplyDeleteYikes.. that's quite the fire. Evidently its at the General Scrapyard off Springfield Rd in East Kildonan. Burning scrap.. not good.
ReplyDeleteYep, it's the scrapyard.
ReplyDeleteRob,
ReplyDeleteDo you think thunderstorm activity in SW MB will move into the RRV tonight or weaken before they get here?
After the sun goes down, weaken quickly.
ReplyDeleteThat's my fathers workplace. Hopefully all is okay.
ReplyDeleteThose thunderstorms over SW MB should weaken with sunset since they were mainly surface based. Models do indicate some elevated thunderstorms developing tonight through the Interlake mainly north of Winnipeg ahead of a warm front pushing through tonight.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous.. Data for Falcon Lake is actually from EC's COOLTAP volunteer climate site at nearby Indian Bay, which is just south of Falcon Lake. I say Falcon Lake because that's more familiar to people than Indian Bay.
ReplyDeleteIf those thunderstorms out west can make it here before sunset at 9:40PM, we might get lucky and see a thunderstorm. Current Image at
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ktiv.com/category/162528/stormtrack4
Weakening area of thunderstorms approaching Winnipeg from the west.. should be here shortly. Lightning strikes not as frequent as earlier, but still a few flashes and strikes approaching the city. About 2-5 mm of rain reported west of us.
ReplyDeleteRob, isn't it amazing how things can change from year to year? Even on a real marginal set-up this evening, there's enough support for some lightning strikes.
ReplyDeleteWe couldn't buy a thunderstorm last year even though it was a very hot summer. 2012 just seems destined to be a good one for us storm wise. We haven't even hit summer yet officially.
Maybe we should have seen this coming with the thunderstorms in March!
Quite the contrast...
ReplyDeleteGillam, Manitoba receives 20 cm of snow while Northern Quebec/Newfoundland had places at 35C the last 2 days.
Mother nature sometimes...
Radar technicians have been at Foxwarren radar recalibrating the signal (been running too hot). Images should be more in line with neighbouring radars as of 3 pm this afternoon.
ReplyDeleteRob The Obs site amazes me with constant updates to Links which are this close to info I've searched for sometimes for hours. Thanks to you and contributors, great info resources are at ones fingertips.. Like these strange but true similarities to 2010.
ReplyDelete2012 first 5 months Mean temp and Year to date Pcpn at your site were nearly matched in 2010 (Normal Mean +4.8c vs + 3.7C in 2010) (280.7mm vs 289.6mm up to a day or so ago) Likewise if one assumes this years growing season began a fortnight earlier, Mar19 instead of April1st Obs had similar rain fall amounts as well.
Have these similarirties occurred thru out the rest of the prairies and Northern Plains? Even the answer to that is available...See your new graphics under the Precip menu.or the Palmer drought index
Keep these great link changes coming.
Have a question for Rob.. how do you access the CWB weatherbug data? The links from on your page no longer seem to work.
ReplyDeleteAs far as convective potential - in spite of good moisture and instability - the lack of shear, and most importantly, the lack of lift/forcing, is only resulting in formation of some cumulus streets so far.
Things get murkier for tonite, current convection is forming over SE Sask along a surface trough and under a strengthening vertically stacked low. That precip should evolve into an area of steadier rain over Saskatchewan tonite as upper low wraps up.
Meanwhile, strong convergence from the nose of the LLJ in S Dakota will generate an MCS over N Dakota that may brush SE Manitoba by dawn tomorrow. We're left with instability, some shear but little forcing. For that reason, I would expect generic showers with some some thunder possible, moving off by midday. Another area of heavy rain and convection may flare up over the Bissett region late tomorrow as LLJ ramps up again to our east.
Daniel
Daniel..
ReplyDeleteI access Weatherbug data through the Weatherfarm website (www.weatherfarm,com) It has a nice map display of real time Weatherbug data.. great for keeping track of rainfall, rain intensity, temps, wind, etc in real time. You can sign in as a registered user, or as a guest. Once you sign in, click on the "analyze weather in your region" link.. and you'll get the real time Weatherfarm map. (although they've been having some issues today.. too many users?)
Cells over southwest MB looking pretty intense on radar.. but only managing to get reports of pea size hail under heaviest cores. Mostly heavy rain as storms are mainly vertical and pulsing, not generating enough updraft time for larger hail to develop. Potential is still there though..
ReplyDeleteWarning issued for cells over Riding Mtn Park..heavy rain will be the main threat due to training, but up to nickel size hail also possible along with strong wind gusts.
ReplyDeleteWhat site did you get that radar image off of?
ReplyDelete..I see thanks Rob
ReplyDeleteHRRR shows precipitation splitting overnite. Convection now in western Manitoba should lift up into the interlake and weaken before getting wrapped back into upper low over Saskatchewan.
We'll have to keep an eye on those thunderstorms forming over SW N Dakota. 50-60 kt LLJ gets cranking tonite, but as mentioned will be focused into far SE N Dakota and central Minnesota. Will be interesting night down there, as the jet axis remains almost stationary allowing for upwind propagation and training of cells. The same model shows the complex only just brushing Winnipeg by around 5-6 am.
Given some uncertainty in the actual location of convection tonite, and the presence of good elevated instability.. the possibility of heavier convection (torrential rain, hail) for Winnipeg cannot be discounted, but the favored areas will be to the southeast and northwest..
Daniel
Nice supercell tracking ENE. It's riding the border in extreme SW MB. Seems to be tracking more east than northeast right now. We'll see how long it holds together.
ReplyDeleteJesse.. those radar images are from an internal EC site with restricted access (not available to the general public unfortunately)
ReplyDelete