Sunday, September 18, 2011
Rain by Tuesday.. windy and warmer by end of week
The new week will start off on a dry and mild note with sunshine and temperatures rising into the low to mid 20s. Unsettled weather however will move in overnight Monday into Tuesday with occasional rain and possible thunderstorms, along with gusty northwest winds and cooler temperatures. Models are hinting that rainfall may be heavy at times Tuesday over portions of southern Manitoba and the RRV, with 20-40 mm possible in some areas. This system is expected to clear out by Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure builds in over southern Manitoba. This will be followed by increasingly windy and warmer weather by the end of the week into the weekend as the ridge moves east and a return southerly flow sets up over southern Manitoba. Gusty south winds will allow temperatures to rise to above normal values in the mid 20s by Saturday. The autumnal equinox arrives this Friday the 23rd.
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Latest runs taking most of pcpn just to the south and east of Winnipeg over southern RRV and SE MB with 30-50 mm possible overnight through Tuesday evening. 12Z GEM shows about 10-20 mm for Winnipeg, but amounts could be more if main precip axis shifts a little further north as main low tracks just south of the intl border. Watch out for strong northerly winds in the afternoon and evening which will likely cause high waves and water levels on the south basin of Lake Winnipeg.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the update rob, glad to hear we will finally see some well needed rain. I think our best bet will be having the rain start late this evening and will likely end by wednesaday evening. close to 30 mm at least. With the rain and cloud cover I beleive our daytime highs will struggle to get past 13C. After that the moisture clears out leaving behind the counterclockwise flow of winds from the NW that breeze could be quite cool as you had mentioned, making our overnight low dip close to 0C and could also cause a problem for the lakes as they had already seen their share of damage from flooding. a warmup starts nextweek with a arrival of high pressure that will create a ridge and allow for warmer then normal weather, so we aint quite done with summer yet.
ReplyDeleteAnyone remember this day in 2004? I recorded 31.1 °C at my house, same as Environment Canada, the HOTTEST day of the year. We had to wait until September to have it.
ReplyDeleteYou can see the deformation zone beginning to shape up on the water vapor imagery. Sitting SW/NE from what looks like just N/NE of Calgary towards Cold Lake. This will definitely be one of the most important features of this system.
ReplyDeleteThough advanced meteorological techniques (staring at a water vapor loop until everything just glazes over), looks pretty favorable for it to set up right close to Winnipeg. Looks like the latest models want to push the system further south, which might be a bit of a correction, but they look like they're heading a little too far south.
Should be a good rainy day tomorrow, none the less. More detailed thoughts up on my blog, as usual (http://cl.ly/AFMQ).
I think other than the fact that this will be the most substantial synoptic rainfall in months for much of S. MB, the big story will be the South Basin. People on the south side of that lake are going to see substantial wave action tomorrow, which when combined with already high water levels, is not good.
High wind watch and warnings for North Dakota!!
ReplyDeleteRob! Could the high winds (60-95 km/h) sneak into the Winnipeg area or they expected to remain stateside???
hey I have a question for you, yesterday I happened to switch to the weathernetwork at a perfect timing, turns out they showed a video from someone who shot a tornado that could have touched down for a short time, outside winnipeg probably near elie. The Tornado occured around the evening hours, although it was an unconfirmed one. We did have a somewhat humid airmass, and some storms out west it could have happened without us knowing.
ReplyDeleteSo where can I get more information such as storm reports from EC, such as this one?
Mike,
ReplyDeleteThere was a tornado yesterday near Lac du Bonnie, east of Winnipeg. It formed during the rapid development of the line of thunderstorms that was east of Winnipeg by 5PM.
The pictures show it had nice shape, but it certainly looked like it may have been a T.Cu tornado during the rapid development of the storm. No reports of damage and it doesn't sound like it was on the ground for very long.
Wasn't overly surprising; it likely happened due to the cold air aloft that was moving over the province in conjunction with a significant shortwave that produced a fairly vorticity rich environment over the Whiteshell.
Just don't confuse 'not surprising' with 'forecastable'. Good luck picking where the one storm will be that will produce a short touchdown in these situations...
daniel..
ReplyDeletethe strongest winds aloft and the best aligned wind flow will be mainly south of the border.. hence the high wind statements in ND. However, the southern Red River valley may come close to wind warning criteria tommorrow afternoon and evening.. with northerly wind gusts of 80-85 km/h possible towards Emerson.
mike.. EC was sent a photo of a funnel cloud late yesterday near Lac Du Bonnet that extended almost to the ground, and may have touched down briefly. Probably the same report you saw on TWN. It came from a line of low topped thunderstorms that popped up along the cold front east of Winnipeg yesterday afternoon. No damage or anything significant from it..
Thanks for letting me know guys, I'm glad to hear that there wasn't any damage so I assume it was fairly weak. How windy will it be here in winnipeg tomorrow?
ReplyDeleteSome big rain bands are entering our area right now, as the main low pushes east. I expect to see a total of 25 mm if not more for the city today, i gotta say it this is the first big rain in a long time.
ReplyDeleteRain shield butting up against deformation zone boundary running roughly along the TransCanada highway.. with latest radar imagery showing little progression north of this boundary. Heaviest rain just south of the city, especially south of Hwy 2 with rainfall rates of 5 mm/hr being reported in the heavier bands. Amounts of 10-15 mm over southern RRV this morning, while Winnipeg has barely got 1 mm so far. I suspect that this boundary will remain fairly stationary today, so look for rainfall amounts of about 5-15 mm for Winnipeg, heavier to the south of the city, less to the north, and 25-40 mm or more south of hwy 2 and over SE MB.
ReplyDeleteRob In Gimli winds NE >40 now and strengthening in the next several hours
ReplyDeleteThis should produce significant erosion on the south west shore beaches from Silver Harbour south to Matlock
What is the warning criteria?
ReplyDeleteHow do you pinpoint where the deformation zone is?
ReplyDelete11 am rainfall round up..
ReplyDeleteEmerson.. 27 mm
Gretna... 25 mm
Morris.. 23 mm
Carman.. 19-27 mm
Morden.. 18 mm
Steinbach.. 12 mm
Sanford.. 14 mm
Winnipeg area
YWG airport.. 3 mm
Forks downtown.. 4 mm
Charleswood.. 5 mm
Whyte Ridge.. 9 mm
St Vital.. 8 mm
St Norbert.. 9 mm
E St Paul.. 1 mm
Area of moderate rain has pushed into the city with rates of 3-8 mm/hr.. with the defn zone holding firm just north of the city. Given current setup, looks like about 5-15 mm for north part of the city, and 15-25 mm for the south, and 25-50 mm south of the city. Heaviest rain may be over western RRV through the Carman area.
is there any thunder possible with the bands of rain? I assume so with how heavy the rains are.
ReplyDeleteNo thunder.. just moderate to heavy rain.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, my station has stopped updating data including rainfall amounts.. so ignore my readings until I get it updating again. My station is showing its age and seems to be losing its wireless signal more often these days..
Thanks Rob n Buff7 for the south basin warnings yesterday. Came up earlier than expected and EC Marine warnings are up now but not land. Appears shoreline is never never land to EC and Mb Gov flood site is warning the North Basin for today??
ReplyDeleteUp to 22mm in St. Bonifice after only having a trace at 9AM today.
ReplyDelete16.4 mm at my place in Transcona.
ReplyDelete3 pm rainfall round up..
ReplyDeleteMorris.. 40 mm
Carman.. 53 mm
Winkler.. 54 mm
Steinbach.. 24 mm
Sanford.. 32 mm
Winnipeg area
YWG airport.. 15 mm (est)
Forks downtown.. 20 mm (est)
Charleswood.. 25 mm
Whyte Ridge.. 25 mm
St Vital.. 26 mm
St Norbert.. 25 mm
E St Paul.. 15 mm
Amazingly sharp drop off in rainfall to our north and west. No measurable rain in Portage but over 50 mm just 30 miles south of them. Only 2 mm in Selkirk.
That area just south of Winkler Langdon and Walawalla ND airports almost on the Cdn Border have rec'd over 100mm
ReplyDeleteThe rain just won't quit.. still falling at a decent rate here in Winnipeg. I'm up to 42 mm as of 8 pm.. a lot more than I was expecting today.
ReplyDeleteRainfall totals as of 7 pm..
YWG airport... 26.5 mm
Forks......... 30 mm (est)
Charleswood... 38 mm
Whyte Ridge... 36 mm
ST Vital ..... 35 mm
E St Paul .... 25 mm
Manitou ...... 67 mm
Carman ....... 66 mm
Winkler ...... 66 mm
Morris ....... 52 mm
Sanford ...... 43 mm
Starbuck...... 40 mm
Steinbach .... 34 mm
Heaviest rainfall was over western and southern RRV where almost 70 mm of rain fell today. SE MB dry slotted and didn't get as much as further north and west along deformation zone.
It's not often that I hear that you were taken by surprise Rob!
ReplyDeleteEven me...I really did not expect this much rain either!!!
Oh by the way.....GO JETS GO!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteThe Forks seems spuriously low. At my place (which is only about 2.5km south of the Forks station, we're up to 41mm. Starting to let up a bit now though.
ReplyDelete44mm in WPG south-east.
ReplyDeleteGo JETS Go!
26.4 mm here in Transcona...seems to be in line with the East St. Paul amount.
ReplyDeleteRainfall warnings ENDED!
ReplyDeleteThat was quite the storm!
If this was 2 months later....that would have been a lot of snow....
lets hope we don't see snow for a long time, although it looks like we will see a late summer warmup. highs into the mid twenties next week, as a omega block forms. Looking forward to it!
ReplyDeletehow much rain did you guys get in St.James? as it varies throughout the city.
ReplyDeleteHi everyone...
ReplyDeleteThose rainfall reports from the AWOS's at Langdon and Walhalla are too high from the past storm. We think the wind caused the tipping bucket to shake causing some double "clicks". Noticed it yesterday afternoon comparing ground truth rain in Langdon to the AWOS. Ground truth reports do indicate a lot of rain though....storm total of 4.05 in Walhalla and 3.20 in Langdon as the top spots.
where can I find the forecast discussion or FOCN from the city of toronto or just ontario? please let me know, thanks
ReplyDeleteMike,
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure they produce one. From my understanding, the FOCN is a bulletin for the Prairies to help the two forecast offices (Winnipeg & Edmonton) stay in touch and be on the same page about the weather.
The OSPC does produce forecast discussions but they are no longer shared with the public it seems. Occasionally the discussion is reproduced on this website from SW Ontario:
ReplyDeleteOSPC Forecast Discussion
Skies clearing already and with a light northerly flow all nite - question is frost potential for the city. Hopefully we get enough evaporation from the recent rain to keep dewpoints up. Would not rule out fog formation which could insulate things a bit as well. We also get a NNE flow most of the nite which could add a bit of moisture off the south basin of L Winnipeg. Minus 3 seems too pessimistic even for the airport... I could not find widespread lows in Saskatchewan last nite under the ridge that cold.
Anyone have an idea on how windy its going to be this weekend?
ReplyDeleteTo have temps climb to the mid to upper 20's it would have to be accompanied by a good stiff south wind for this time of year.
According to the GFS, southerly winds shouldn't be too strong here in the RRV.. probably 20-30 km/h or so with the gradient increasing Sunday into Monday. Overall, not as windy as it was looking earlier.. and nice and warm!
ReplyDeleteThank you daniel, i very much appreciate your help in finding the website I was looking for. i will add it to my favourite weather websites list.
ReplyDelete