Tuesday, December 07, 2010

Snow moving in Wednesday night into Thursday..

An Alberta clipper will track across the Prairies tomorrow into Thursday, spreading an area of snow across southern MB. Snow is expected to move into SW Manitoba Wednesday afternoon, reaching Winnipeg and the Red River valley Wednesday night. Snow will continue into Thursday morning before tapering off, with more persistent snow likely through the Interlake. In general about 5 cm of snow is likely for areas along and south of the TransCanada (including Winnipeg) with up to 10 cm possible further north from Dauphin into the Interlake regions. Clearing and colder conditions are expected behind this system for the weekend.

57 comments:

  1. AWCN11 CWTO 072118
    Weather summary for all of Southern Ontario and
    The national Capital region
    Issued by Environment Canada Toronto at 4:17 PM EST Tuesday 7
    December 2010.

    Significant lake effect snowfall reports.
    ==weather event discussion==

    The traditional snow belts of Southern Ontario are in the midst of a
    major multi-day snow squall event. Brisk northwest winds from Lake
    Huron and Georgian Bay have produced impressive snowfall
    accumulations over the past couple of days. Heavy snow squalls will
    continue tonight and Wednesday likely giving remarkable snow totals
    well over one metre in and around the London area as well as some
    locales to the southeast of Georgian Bay.

    Snowfall reports as of 4 PM today and fallen since Saturday night,
    except for lucan which has received a staggering 144 cm reported at
    4 PM.
    -------------------------------------------------------------
    Location snowfall amounts (cm snow)

    London 65-80
    London aiport 75 (approximately)
    Southeast of London 85-95
    Lucan (northwest of London) 144 (as of 4PM)
    Dorchester (east of London) 42 (reported on Monday)
    Goderich 40 (estimated)
    Mount Forest 13 (compacted snow depth)
    Lakelet (near Clifford) 33
    Paisley (ne of Kincardine) 10 (possibly more)
    Niagara 14
    Toronto downtown 2-4 (no snow today)
    Toronto north 10-15
    Newmarket 30-40
    Maple 15-25
    King City 20-30
    Beeton (south of Alliston) 105 (as of 11:30 AM)
    Alliston 83
    Thornbury 40
    Barrie 10-15 (higher just west of Barrie)

    Please note that this summary contains the observations at the time
    of broadcast and does not constitute an official and final report of
    the weather events or the high impact events attributed to the
    weather events.

    END/OSPC

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  2. Looks like some very cold weather on Sunday!
    Question is could we hit our first -30 C overnight low of the season this weekend ??

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  3. Still looking like a general 2-5 cm for Winnipeg overnight into Thursday morning. Gusty winds and milder temperatures will be working against ideal snow crystal growth so amounts should be on the light side with snow:water ratios close to 10:1. The gusty south winds and few cm of snow will likely make for slippery road conditions Thursday morning especially near and outside the perimeter..

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  4. Looks like some freezing rain is affecting parts of Saskatchwan!

    I wonder if that could affect southern Manitoba toward morning??

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  5. The EC Winnipeg 7 day forecast has an excellent link to Todays Winnipeg Averages and Extremes which includes Snow on Ground and Snowfall info.
    ..on my name or at

    http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/almanac/almanac_e.html?ywg

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  6. Some light freezing drizzle in Steinbach this morning. Not much snow so far - perhaps 1 or 2cm at most.

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  7. Rob!

    Any chance of Winnipeg hitting - 30 for a overnight low this weekend???

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  8. Any chance for a record low 2nite. Is the old record -33.5.

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  9. Well Daniel looks like your going to get your -30 and some.

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  10. -32 at Swan River!

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  11. The record for tomorrow morning is -37 C in 1995!

    So we could get pretty close to that record!

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  12. So far it looks like mother nature doesn't want it to goto the -30 level. It's getting real close.

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  13. Only got -27 at my place.

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  14. Sounds like Minneapolis and the upper midwest got hammered with a blizzard!

    Some totals exceeding 20 inches!!

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  15. Metrodome roof collapsed in Minneapolis...Vikings game to be played Monday night in Detroit instead of Sunday.

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  16. Game was already postponed to Monday because of the storm, the roof collapse has them looking for somewhere else to play. Click on my name for story at NPR.

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  17. Lucky I went to see the Vikings game a few months ago and not now or I would have been buried under a mountain of snow!

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  18. Anyone know how much snow we can expect on Wednesday?

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  19. I wonder where Rob is???

    Maybe on vacation somewhere warm...like the Mexico??

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  20. Just looked at Weather nets forecast. Big change from an hour ago. No longer forecasting the 10-15cm for wednesday but rather 1-3cm. Big swing

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  21. Now EC is saying 60% chance of flurries. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

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  22. Greetings..

    Back from a quick trip to Toronto.. enjoyed some rain and plus 3C temperatures while Winnipeg was hitting its first -30C of the season. So sorry I missed it :)(NOT!)

    This morning though, it was -13C in TO with a brutal 50 km/h wind.. and it felt colder than anything I've experienced in Winnipeg so far this winter. Good to be back in Winnipeg with a warming trend coming up!

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  23. Speaking of snow, take a look at the 12Z NAM. It was showing 40mm of precipitation for Regina on Wednesday - which would have equaled 70cm of snow. The latest run of the NAM (18Z) is only showing 10mm, which is about 15cm of snow.

    NAM is now putting the heaviest axis of snow along the MB/SK border. This next system looks like a very tricky one to forecast, since snow will only fall in one heavy band. Most models agree with the latest NAM in bringing the heavy snow along that provincial border. The NAM, GFS, and ECMWF are all in agreement with giving Winnipeg and the Red River Valley no snow whatsoever. The GEM-Global was giving Winnipeg and the RRV around 10cm of snow in its run this morning, while the latest GEM-Regional is only giving 2 to 5cm for the RRV. It is very difficult to make an argument against the European model (ECMWF). It is regarded as one of the best, if not the best, weather model in the world. It typically leads the way in resolving forecasts, so I would suggest that you pay most attention to its solution (i.e. little or no snow for Winnipeg and the RRV).

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  24. Looks like that ridge of arctic high will prevail and keep the snow west of us.

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  25. Are those 3 month CPC Forecasts due Friday Dan GF?

    Are we looking at any positive changes in the longterm MAM outlook?

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  26. Rob!
    You should read Jeff Master's blog on weather underground today!

    They have an interesting article on How a warming artic could have worldwide implications on the weather patterns!

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  27. Rob
    The Negative AO n Jeff Masters Blog
    Thats an interesting observation but can it explain..?? (IMMIA)
    1936 and 2009-10 appear to have produced extremely opposite results for Winnipeg. Some consider 1936 the coldest Winter in our history whereas November '09 to March '10 was close to, if not our warmest.

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  28. Hey Jim

    Yes I verified that the next CPC outlook is due Thursday or Friday. There was a pre-outlook conf call (I wasnt in on it so asked someone who was) and a lot of questions revolving around the strength of the artic oscillation. La Nina typically doesnt see such strong negative AO....and La Nina conditions typically bring the wettest (compared to normal) to our area Feb, Mar, and April. So it seems from the call they will put our part of the red river valley in abv normal pcpn and below normal temps into early Spring. It the AO remains so negative it would enforce the below normal temps but also may suppress any storms to our south.

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  29. That snow out in western Manitoba is very heavy!
    Radar screen is lit up like a christmas tree!!

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  30. It's very heavy and not really moving. What direction is is supposed to go? It looks like it would eventually head towards Winnipeg. Is is supposed to dissapatate or is it going to be a surprise in Winnipeg this evening?

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  31. Models dissipate the snow over Western Manitoba tonight. A bit of light snow is possible in Winnipeg this evening, but very little if anything will accumulate.

    RADAR estimates show a general 10 to 20cm having already fallen in Western MB. Localized patches of 30cm are more are possible based on RADAR trends - particularly around and just west of Minnedosa, as well as in the riding mountains. Will be interesting to see what actual amounts are when reports start coming in.

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  32. Very heavy snowfall rates of 2 to 5 cm/hr occurring within that band.. 13 cm past 6 hrs in Brandon, with 19 cm in the past 6 hrs in Wasagaming. As Scott mentioned, the band will not move much further east, (thanks to a large storm system over Quebec which is actually moving to the west) which is helping to produce the heavy amounts to our west as the band remains stationary.

    Interesting pattern shaping up as that large storm over Quebec pushes west over Hudson Bay, and draws mild Atlantic air across Baffin Island, the eastern Arctic, and northern MB. Record highs likely in those areas over the next few days..

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  33. Some area's of north dakota are recieving up to 15 inchs of snow with this storm!

    Stateside has really been getting hit hard the past while!

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  34. As Rob mentioned very warm air over Baffin!
    High of
    +2 C and rain for Iqaluit for Thursday....That can't be good!!

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  35. Thanks Dan GF!
    A 9pm report of 11 inches of Snow at Devils Lake appears on your Local Storm Report

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  36. What a strange weather pattern! Northern Manitoba and Nunavut expecting record warmth, huge snowstorms just to the west of us, massive lake effect in Ontario.
    Is this very unusual to see a massive low move literally back to the West? Almost seems like we are in the wrong hemisphere??!!

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  37. LOL!
    Anonymous. Yes, unusual but not unheard of! I guess a major greenland block is to blame for this mess??

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  38. Wow I don't think I have ever seen a system like that. Weird how it kinda just moved in and sat stationary for hours and then just slowly slips away to the south. I've talked to a few people who traveled in the system and they all report it was like a line. One side was heavy snow and then within a kilometer there was none.

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  39. Snowfall reports from Wed event shows widespread 12 to 15 inches from Hansboro-Rolla (along Manitoba border) south through Devils Lake to Carrington. 8 to 12 inches south of there through Valley City to Wahpeton.

    1.10 inch liquid equiv reported by coooperative observer at DVL.

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  40. Looks like me might pick up a few cm of snow today!
    C'mon .... I need a big storm so we can break the record for the wettest year ever !

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  41. I've picked up 3 cm last night through 6 pm today..

    At the Winnipeg airport as of this morning, they've had 716 mm of total precipitation for the year, third wettest year of all time. We're only 2 mm shy of second place, and 7.7 mm from a record wettest year. It doesn't sound like much, but you need a decent snowfall to get 8 mm water equivalent this time of year.. at least 10-15 cm. Only 2 weeks left to break the record..

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  42. Here is what dave carlsen had to say yesterday:

    OVERVIEW...12Z UPPER ANALYSES REVEALED ONE OF THE MOST BIZARRE PATTERNS IN RECENT MEMORY, WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AT H85 OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC IN EASTERLY FLOW. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN IMPRESSIVELY BLOCKED PATTERN OVER THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE, WITH A REX BLOCK IN THE PROCESS OF SETTING UP OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA, A HUGE CUTOFF LOW FILLING THE GULF OF ALASKA, AND EVEN A CUTOFF LOW POISED TO GIVE YET MORE WINTER TO THE UNITED KINGDOM!!

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  43. Bizarre indeed. In Nunavut, Rankin Inlet is at +1C this morning.. the first time in 30 years of records that they've ever been above freezing in December (records go back to 1981) Baker Lake is at -0.7C, easily smashing today's record high of -9C, and an all time high for December. Strangely, these temperatures are occurring with a north wind, highlighting the very unusual flow of warm air over the Arctic from the east.

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  44. Update.. Baker Lake now above zero also (+0.8C) with light rain.. first time they've ever been above freezing in December since records started there in 1946. Impressive..

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  45. With all that warm air up in the arctic I'm surprised that we have been able to be so close to normal vaules here in Southern Manitoba for the past month or so!

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  46. The webcam out of Kimmirut basically shows a dirty pile of snow almost bare ground!
    The lake even looks open!

    They even saw a 6 C overnight low??
    LOW????
    Stunning!

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  47. Seems vaguely familiar...perhaps..the Dansgaard-Oeschger events of the last ice age and the Younger Dryas cold reversal of the last deglaciation - are well recorded in the Greenland ice core and Europe and involved changes in winter temperature of as much as thirty degrees C! ...
    Climate mythology:
    The Gulf Stream, European climate and Abrupt Change
    Richard Seager

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  48. The last time this occurred, it was blamed on Lake Agassiz drainage.

    If someone hasn't already, I'm sure we will see linkage to the BP Gulf incident, the Gulf Current, the Iceland Volcano, and the RRV Floods...

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  49. That Kimmirut webcam is certainly an amazing sight.. it looks like a scene from May (except the bay would have more ice!) I see they even have their windows open it's so mild! It's actually warmer in Kimmirut right now than in the Texas panhandle!

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  50. Did they exceed our record high for today??

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  51. Is there any chance for Mondays ND snowstorm (6 to 8" along and north of I 94) to drift into southern Manitoba.

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  52. Most of the models show the bulk of the snow Monday into Monday night remaining south of the border across ND.. however the latest GEM and NAM hint to at least some light snow from the system spreading over the RRV and SE MB by Monday evening with a weak inverted trof poking into southern MB from that system. That may put our "mix of sun and cloud" forecast for Monday in some jeopardy, with some snow moving in by Monday night. Looking at the sat pix, it looks like the main energy should be well to our south.. but we'll keep an eye on it and see how it evolves.

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  53. Rob!
    If you want a place that has gotten lots of snow this year....Minneapolis!
    That have over 20 inches this month and another 8 tomorrow!

    I came back from Brandon yesterday and ..WOW!! They too have some serious snow there!

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  54. Models have been correcting further and further north with the snow for Monday-Tuesday. Latest ECMWF (from 00Z) is showing 3mm of precip for Winnipeg, 3.5mm for Steinbach, 8mm for Brandon, 9mm for Morden, and 4mm for Portage. Based on a ratio of 15:1, that would provide snowfall amounts in the 5 to 15cm range, with highest amounts near the border. Will be interesting to see if the 12Z ECMWF continues with the northward trend.

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  55. Actually checking the NWS twin cities webpage states this will be the 7th storm of the winter season!

    Crazy amounts of snow!

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  56. Latest EC forecasts calls for 2 cm of snow along the US border from Melita to Pilot Mound, with a 60% chance of flurries through Emerson and 30% chance of flurries over the Steinbach region. Best chance for accumulating snow from this system over southern MB will be from Melita through Emerson and Vita where 2 to 5 cm is possible Monday into Monday evening. There will be a sharp cutoff to the snow to the north of these areas with little or no snow likely north of Hwy 2.

    Significantly more snow forecast just across the border in ND with winter storm warnings out for western ND and southern RRV (10-20 cm of snow) and winter storm watches for central and eastern ND (5-15 cm).

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