Friday, May 14, 2010
Fine stretch of summery weather ahead
After two weeks of below normal temperatures and unsettled conditions, the weather pattern will be shifting to a warmer and drier regime over the next week. Temperatures will be climbing into the mid 20s over the weekend into next week, with generally sunny skies and light winds. Normal highs for this time of year are around 20C so we'll be a good 5 degrees above that over the next week. Get out and enjoy it!
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Now the question is will there be any Thunderstorm chances in the next while???
ReplyDeleteI'll itching for some storms!
Precipitation chances look minimal through the week.. but GFS model hints at the possibility of showers and thunderstorms moving into southern MB by the end of the May 24 weekend. Stay tuned..
ReplyDeleteSmall cell has popped up near Brunkild moving towards La Salle as of 5:20 pm. Small TCU giving some showers at the moment.. we'll see if it grows any stronger.. I doubt it though. Little shear and energy to work with..
ReplyDeleteLook at the thunderstorms that have formed in the Dauphin area!!
ReplyDeleteRob.
I noticed that the dewpoints are higher today than they were yesterday!
Those storms in western Manitoba are working with CAPE values of 500 to 1000J/kg, but little to no shear. If there was some wind shear present, we might see one or two severe storms. However, without any wind shear the storms can't grow very intense. I wouldn't be surprised if there were reports of small hail, but otherwise the threat is minimal.
ReplyDeleteWe'll have to see if that 31C for Winnipeg on Sunday works out.. but preliminary model guidance for the May 24 weekend suggests an increasing threat of showers and thunderstorms by Sunday or Monday as a cold front approaches southern MB. Things may be a bit more unsettled for the latter part of the holiday weekend than the current forecast suggests.. stay tuned. In the meantime, it's looking great this week with sunshine and daily highs around 27C, with a chance of squeezing out a 30C by the end of the week!
ReplyDeleteLatest GFS brings in unsettled weather even sooner on the holiday weekend now over southern MB.. with showers and thunderstorms moving in on Saturday rather than Sunday, and continuing off and on through Sunday and Monday as well. And surprise, surprise, even the Day 7 forecast from the optimistic Canadian ensemble is now calling for a 60% chance of showers on Sunday (rather than sunny and 31c). Now you know for sure it's going to rain this weekend! :) Hopefully, it's not a total washout and there's some good rain free periods. But I do think we'll be seeing the season's first thunderstorms this weekend!
ReplyDeleteThanks for all the updates Rob!
ReplyDeleteI'll be keeping a close eye on this one!!!
The long weekend forecast that is!
GFS has backed off on the timing of the showers/thunderstorms, pushing them back to Sunday again. It's looking more likely that Saturday will be dry and warm here in the RRV (maybe showers/tstms over western MB), but a cold front Sunday will trigger showers and thunderstorms (not an all day thing though) with cooler conditions and a chance of showers Monday. Not a complete washout for the holiday weekend, but there will likely be some rain at times by Sunday and Monday. Hey, it's the May 24 weekend.. you didn't expect 3 sunny days in a row, did you? :)
ReplyDeleteI know I certainly wasdn't expecting a picture perfect long weekend.
ReplyDeleteIt was only a few years ago I was camping and fishing up near Bissett on the May long and I woke up on the Sunday morning to -5C and some snow flurries. It was brutal!
So, if we get a few showers or even a heavy t-storm, I'll be fine with it.
Forecast for the long weekend (according to EC):
ReplyDeleteSaturday: Sunny, high 26C
Sunday: Mix of Sun and Cloud, high 31
Monday: Mix of Sun and Cloud, high 30
Forecast for the long weekend (according to the GFS):
Saturday: Mix of Sun and Cloud, high 25
Sunday: Rain, risk of a tstm, high 22
Monday: Mix of sun and cloud, high 19
Someone is going to be very wrong, too bad for those that were hoping for a nice weekend (at least Saturday will be decent).
WOW!!! updated forecast on EC hints that we might hit our first 30C tomorrow!
ReplyDeleteThis month is turning out to be better then i expected!
Looking at the 18Z GFS, it's looking like we could be in for some severe weather come the May long weekend. That is, if it verifies to be true and doesn't go to 'model land'. Opinions?
ReplyDelete30 C tomorrow for Winnipeg!!
ReplyDeleteWHOA!!! That is 2 months earlier than last year!!!
Anyone have the record high for Winnipeg tomorrow???
Record tomorrow is 35°C (1948). Wow, don't think we'll break that one...!
ReplyDeleteWinnipeg airport hit a high of 28.4C today.. and models indicate 850mb temperatures will be a degree warmer tomorrow than today.. so a high of 29-30C looks likely. Whether or not Winnipeg officially hits the first 30.0C of the season remains to be seen.. it will be close. The Forks may do it though.. they hit 29.0C today so it may have a better shot of 30.0C. Winds will be a little lighter than today, so it will feel hotter.
ReplyDeleteWhatever the case, it won't be a record for May 19th which is 35.0C in 1948.
Sunday still looking unsettled with a cold frontal band of showers and thunderstorms moving through. Timing of front will determine severity and intensity of precipitation.. which could be locally heavy. At this point, models indicating front pushing through RRV Saturday night or Sunday morning. Cooler temps for Monday.
To edit my last post, this is based off of the 18Z model run
ReplyDelete