Saturday, November 14, 2009
Fine fall weather to continue through upcoming week
The exceptionally nice weather we've been enjoying this month will continue through the upcoming week with dry weather and above normal temperatures. Long range models continue to indicate Arctic air remaining well to our north, as a storm track takes storms across the northern Prairies or Territories, keeping mild Pacific airmasses over the southern Prairies. The result will be more of the same, with sunshine and temperatures in the 5-10c range through the next week at least.
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One of the unusual weather phenomenon I noticed earlier this week was what appeared to be an invisible and impervious layer of air not to high off the ground. Rain from the clouds above could not fall thru it nor could the smoke rising from burning fields below. The rain had the appearance of the large round bales of hay left on the fields. It appeared to drop from the clouds in a circular pattern down from the clouds only to return in an upward swoop
ReplyDeleteThe smoke rose very little and then travelled several miles at what appeared to be at most a hundred feet above the ground.
Can someone explain this?
Rob!
ReplyDeleteIn regards to the driest November on record it is very amazing that weather patterns could not allow any more than 0.8 mm of rain/snow!!!
Just curious on what day did we get that 1 mm of rain????
I don't remember getting any rain this month!!!!
Anonymous..
ReplyDeleteThat phenomena you describe could be explained by the presence of a warm dry inversion layer just above the surface. An inversion layer acts like a lid to rising motion, so smoke plumes would reach this inversion layer and then spread out rather than continue rising. Also, this inversion layer often is associated with a dry layer above .. which would explain why rain shafts would dry up before reaching the ground.
Daniel.. the airport recorded 0.5 mm of melted snow early on the 1st between 4-5 am. It also registered 0.5 mm on the 6th but that is a false reading since the 6th was a sunny day. In the south end of the city on the 3rd, there was some melted snow in the afternoon (0.8 mm at my place).. which missed the airport. So actually, the official amount at YWG airport so far this month is 0.5 mm. So you're right about no rain this month.
ReplyDeleteIn Silver Heights, I measured 0.6mm on the 1st of Nov and 0.4mm on the 6th. Although I have capped off my TBRG for the winter season, the unusually mild air this month has allowed me to leave my type B rain gauge outside. We are half way through November and I have only measured 1mm so far.
ReplyDeleteThe similarites to Nov 1963 continue In addition to an 8 consecutive day streak of >10C. An eyeball (mine) Mean of 2.8C and two days of .5mm each for the first 15 days of November compare almost exactly to this years first 14 days.
ReplyDeleteThe mean forecast for today and the next 4 days is also comparable to 1963 for those days.
Starting the 18th of November 63 we had our second 8 day stretch of double digit temperatures peaking (bottoming) unfortunately at -23.9C on the 24th.
A Mean Nov monthly of -3.7 was the result.
Still no snow in the forecast but the long range on Weathernet is showing snow next monday and then the following friday. I don't know how much but there is several snowflakes in their forecast. I know those long range forecasts change often but at least a hint.
ReplyDeleteWell, looks like the GFS is showing a storm for sunday/monday.
ReplyDeleteFor Winnipeg, can anyone tell me when the AVERAGE first snowfall that STAYS until spring is???
ReplyDeleteIf a stats even exist for such a thing!!!!
It's rather smoky out there this afternoon (Maples/NW Winnipeg). Where's it all coming from?
ReplyDeleteWith temperatures of 12-14 C in Western Prairies today look for that air to be in Southern Manitoba tomorrow!!!
ReplyDeleteI feel that if we could get more of a south-western Wind as opposed to a
straight south wind Winnipeg could hit 14 C tomorrow!!!
Southerly wind today is advecting smoke plumes from just south of the city into Winnipeg. I saw one smoke source coming from open fields south of the Whyte Ridge area..
ReplyDeleteDoppler radar showed another large smoke plume originating in the Starbuck area..
To answer your question daniel p.. I just saw on cbc that the average first snowfall that stays until spring is NOvember 15th.
ReplyDeleteSmoke is almost certainly from field burning happening around Winnipeg. I saw at least 5 fields up in controlled flames yesterday afternoon while driving to St Leon.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the answer Jewels!!!
ReplyDeleteLooks like we have to wait at least another week for even a chance of snow!!!!
All I can say is......
BRING ON THE SNOW!!!!!
I wonder if the skies will clear out later tonight for the Meteor shower???????
ReplyDeleteAnyone watching tonight????
Average temperature so far this month in Steinbach is +2.8C at the airport and +3.8C at my house. The airport number is more accurate, because my house has warmer low temperatures (heat island effect I guess??).
ReplyDeleteSteinbach doesn't have great records, but based on the data we do have, our warmest November ever was +1.4C in 2001. Our coldest November(s) were 1985 & 1996 at -11.9C.
Record highs should fall in Southern Manitoba today!!!!
ReplyDeleteIf they do it won't be by much!!!!
Lots of temperatures in the mid to upper teens over SK and AB today.. while Winnipeg and the RRV barely got above 10C thanks to a southerly valley wind tapping some cooler air to our south. A west wind would have had us in the 15-18C range today! Now I'm getting too spoiled!
ReplyDeleteWe might be able to hit double digits again Wednesday.. if we do, it will be Winnipeg's 10th day this month in the double digits, tying Nov 1981 for the second most double digit days in November (most is 11 in 1904).
The weather this year is getting weirder and weirder. In Saskatoon, on the 6th of November, we hit 17 C. The last time it was warmer than that was the 26th of September! We topped 15 C today.
ReplyDeleteThe last time we had a double digit reading so late in November was 12.7 C on the 20th Nov 2005. That was just before the powerful El Nino that winter.
Rob!
ReplyDeleteIt looks like next week the colder air (that's not saying much) will be arriving !!!
So looks like you might have to enjoy this heatwave while it lasts!!!
Yep, models showing colder air next week.. but without a decent snowcover anywhere in the southern Prairies, models may be underestimating our highs next week. Of course, if that cold air is accompanied by some snow, then we'll likely see below freezing highs. Time will tell.. let's see how long we can dodge old man winter's bullet!
ReplyDeleteAre any of the models showing any snow for next week?
ReplyDeleteAt this point, models are not indicating any significant snow for the next week, possibly right through the end of the month. GFS hints at a possibility of some light snow for southern MB next Tuesday night into Wednesday, but then warms us right back up for the last few days of November. Of course, these are just model guesses right now.. we'll have to see if they remain consistent over the next few days. But at this point, models aren't suggesting a threat of any organized snow in the near future..
ReplyDeleteWith a forecast high of 10 C today we may tie that record with 1981 with double digit highs!!!
ReplyDeleteIt's going to be a close call for Winnipeg if we hit double digits today.. we still have a southerly valley wind tapping cooler air to our south and we're 1-2C cooler than the same time yesterday. That would give Winnipeg a high around 10C today give or take 0.5C.. we'll see if we can squeak another one in. No problem to our southwest however with downsloping off Turtle Mtn, Riding Mtn, and Pembina escarpment already producing double digit temperatures downwind of those higher elevations.
ReplyDeleteDaniel.. I added a poll for you! "Will it snow by the end of November?"
ReplyDeleteWhile we go through one of the driest Novembers on record, the west Coast continues to get pounded by rain. As of the 17th, Port Alberni BC has had 467 mm of rain this month, and more is on the way! Click on my name for their soggy stats..
ReplyDeleteThats a Winnipeg year of rain in just over 2 weeks!!
ReplyDeleteNot only do they blow cold, but those annoying south winds don't appear to be drying up any of the standing water in the RRV .
ReplyDeleteEven at 16C with winds to 80Km in the south and to 50km in Mb the ditches as of this morning were still running, and late last week standing water in the fields from GF to Fargo .
Intersting RRV flood speculation on the NOAA site Click on my name .
ReplyDeleteRight now based on the current forecast, we may come very close to making this the warmest November ever. Based on my calculation, if the current GFS is relatively accurate, the mean temp for the month will be +1.1C. The record is +1.3C, so that is within the margin of error. We'll have to watch the trend, because this month will be a close call.
ReplyDeleteWith the record breaking warm September and the near record warm November, what are the chances that Winnipeg will end up with the warmest fall on record (period of Sept/Oct/Nov)?
ReplyDeleteThanks for the poll Rob!
ReplyDeleteI was wondering if you were ever gonna bring back the polls!!!
Just to clarify.....you were saying that the Winnipeg AIRPORT has 0.5 mm of precip. so far this month right???
Imagine the WARMEST and DRIEST November on record!!!!!
I plugged in some numbers, and even if we have the warmest November on record (say, +1.5C), we'd end up tied with 1923 as the 3rd warmest fall on record with a mean of +7.5C. The warmest fall was 1963 with a mean of +8.6C, while 1931 came in second at 7.9C. Our cool October this year took us out of top spot honours.. but a top 5 finish out of 138 is pretty good!
ReplyDeleteDaniel.. yes that's correct. As of today, Winnipeg airport has recorded only 0.5 mm of *legitimate* precipitation, and that was on the 1st. Note that the climate stats also show 0.5 mm on the 6th and the 17th, but these are both false readings since there was no precipitation noted on those days. (these are false readings from the automated gauge that sometimes creep into the database and should be removed from the climate record)
ReplyDeleteNote that the false 0.5 mm readings for the 6th and 17th have been removed from the Winnipeg airport climate stats. So officially, Winnipeg has only 0.5 mm of precip this month.. which fell on the 1st. We're approaching three straight weeks now with no measurable precip at the airport..
ReplyDeleteUnlike the west coast where we've had 6 *rainless* days since Oct 12 (Abbotsford) - I'm starting to shrivel!
ReplyDeleteOh yeah, and Port Alberni is up to 550mm through November 18...
ReplyDeleteAmazing.. guess you guys are making up for that hot dry summer!
ReplyDeleteThose Port Alberni numbers are unreal.. I'm starting to wonder if their rain gauge is under a downspout!