News and views on weather in Winnipeg and Southern Manitoba
The question is will August be the 9th below normal month in a row????It will be really close folks!This weeks looks to be below normal for the most part.So the last week of August will be be it!I mean might as well go for the record!!!!
In Steinbach, the mean temperature right now is exactly average (18.1). I assume Winnipeg is similar. The average high is running slightly below normal (24.5 actual vs. 24.7 normal). I suspect the average high won't climb above normal this month, but the mean will be a very close call. However, the mean is the real indicator of whether or not a month is normal. Since the current average is normal and we are expecting one week above normal and one week below normal, it will be too close to make a prediction yet.Personally I hope this month ends up below normal. We have suffered enough from this weather...there had better be some kind of big record!
Do you think the year of 2009 average temperature will end up below 0 C in any Prairie city? That would be real interesting because that divides a Prairie climate from a subarctic one. I know it's just weather not climate, but we can boast that we lived in a subarctic year.
Bill is something worth watching. There's still some room for the trend to go dangerously east and possibly affect Halifax and area.
Been reading a lot of beginner weather books lately, trying to learn some things, any recommended books?
Ahrens Meteorology Today is a good textbook that covers all the basics
14mm of rain here in the last hour at Pembina and Chevrier anyone else get this cloudburst... UM site hasn't updated since the 14th and no others are reporting anywhere near this.
Just thought I'd share some of the info I have read regarding the European models' interpretation of this upcoming winter for the prairies. I don't hold much faith in these models mainly because a strengthening El Nino could change this forecast significantly. I would like to point out that the european models were one of a few that were fairly accurate about our non-existent summer.On that note:October should be fairly seasonable.November is expected to be colder and dryer than normal.December is expected to be colder and dryer than normal.January gets interesting. A ridge in the west making for mild temps in BC, Yukon as well as a trough through the prairies. Possibly another blocking pattern. Models expect an extremely cold month for Manitoba.February is too difficult to interpret at this time.With that said, these models don't take El Nino into effect, so this forecast could be way off. Looks bleak, but then again I'm almost hoping to smash records like Scott said previously.
City of Winnipeg2:34 PM CDT Wednesday 19 August 2009Tornado watch for City of Winnipeg issuedConditions are favourable for the development of funnel clouds or weak tornadoes. These types of funnel clouds form out of large cumulus clouds or very weak thunderstorms and normally do not have the energy to reach the ground. However, one or two of these funnels may briefly touch down and can become destructive over a very small area. Treat all funnel clouds and tornadoes seriously and avoid when possible. Should one develop overhead take shelter until it dissipates. Remember these funnel clouds will normally appear with little or no warning.Environment Canada continues to monitor the situation closely. Please continue to monitor your local media or weatheradio for further updates.Should you spot a funnel cloud or tornado...And only if it is safe to do so...You can call 1-800-239-0484 to report your sighting. Please note this phone number is for reporting severe weather only.Weak thunderstorms are moving through the Red River Valley this afternoon along a cold front. These thunderstorms have the potential to produce weak funnel clouds that should mainly stay within the storm and not touch the ground. The funnel cloud potential will diminish this evening. Any sightings? Justin...what are you seeing?
I would like to report a wall cloud in St. Vital not too long ago; watched it mature and dissipate for the most part. I cant find EC's # tho as im on my mobile phone browser. i took many pictures to prove what I saw. If someone could post the # that would be aweome, otherwise I'll make an online report when im home.
The number is:1-800-239-0484
I filed a report, and got a quick reply. Thank you for that EC.Images of the storm have also been emailed to the email address I ws given.Thanks for the number, Scott.
JonMay have been the same awesome Black we saw in the southeast while driving west on the perimeter from Henderson Hwy. 345pmWent north thru EK and hoped to avoid it and a second lesser storm which appeared to be approaching the northwest corner of the city. We were nailed at 4:05pm from Headingley Weigh Station for 10 to 12 Km. The worst was over the White Horse Assinniboine Bridge.where water on road lifted and fishtailed almost everyone crossing the bridge although speed was down to 60 and visability a few car lengths.Returning from Brandon at 7pm the sky was adrift with popups with only one or two actually raining and these appeared to be south along the escarpment and Turtle MtnJim
August Mean temp to the 18th is 17.8C at the Winnipeg airport The good news is its warmer than July (16.52) The bad news is it is still .7C below normal for Aug. There is a YTD world map showing that we are -5C locally (central North America)less than normal while the rest of the world is enjoying the warmest year in recorded history. site address misplaced!!
Some of my pics avalable. Click my name to see.
Nice pictures, kind of hard to tell if that's a wall cloud or just skud but none the less there were some very interesting looking clouds that day!
Good pics Jon. If they are the same ones we observed around 3pm, they seemed even Blacker looking South near Chief Peguis and Henderson Hwy
For anyone who's interested, I've got a shot of the storm over Beausejour on Thursday that merited a tornado watch.Photo
EC has issued 3pm a text warning (Name Link) for Nova Scotia 40 foot (12Meter) Wave warnings (separate from Rain which is distinct warning from Wind which is distinct from.....) Has anyone a website url or Blog with up to date and complete Cdn info.Jeff Masters Blog and WUND Trop/Hurr does not have it either (no swell or Wave Heights this time)EC Hurricanes refers you to NOAA for warnings??? or places it in multiple EC sites
TWN refers you to EC Hurricane page or NOAA (Lists)
Try http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/hurricane/statements_e.html for complete EC info.
Nice picture Geli; Thursday's storms weren't really supercells although some had some supercell features like apparent wall clouds. The tornado watches were issued strictly for cold core funnels.
Thanks for the comments!Definitely was not scud though, I know by now the difference between the two, and it was attached to the storm cloud itself. There was scud around though in other areas of the storm.
Rainfall warnings issued for parts of Southern Manitoba!!Looks to be some overland flooding with all the previous rain we have had!
Some potential today for Severe Thunderstorms. Frontal Passage looks to be around the East side of the city by 3-4pm. Storms should ignite and rapidly develop South and East of the city. Shear is actually not that bad...so rotating storms won't be hard to come by. Will they go the distance? I don't know...it's currently pretty capped out there...but I think forcing along the front will be enough to get the job done. And if the cap does indeed break...low cloud bases with decent low-level shear may yield a brief spin-up.Oh yeah, it's Manitoba...everyone sees funnel clouds around here...maybe someone will actually see a real one for once. Last week's funnels were a joke. I saw no evidence of a real funnel from any of the storms around the city. The only real report would have likely occurred in the Elie area last week. The storm there actually looked decent on our radar. Anyways, I would say Steinbach is in the perfect location for Severe Thunderstorms this afternoon as long as the sun can come out and stir things up a bit.
The cloud deck is pretty thick in SE Manitoba as of 1:35pm. Will the sun come out in time?Time will tell!
As of 2:30pm, the front has gone through Winnipeg. Winds have not switched from the Southwest to the North. Game over for us...I think it'll be to cloudy to get the ball rolling on convection in Steinbach too. Now we'll have to see what rolls into SE MB later this evening...My guess now is that storms will fire in NW MN and roll NE into SE Manitoba! Advected storms are better then no storms!
not* oops wrong word..correction..have "now" switched!Sorry
I can't handle anymore rain! Even those little brown pavement ants are looking for higher ground.....right into my house! I have talked to a few people already who are having the same problem. I hope its a dry mild fall this year.
Be forewarned Chris... legend has it The Carribean and Bermuda Ants flee to houses and high ground just before Hurricanes.
Justin.. I'm wondering if a mere return to adjusted Normal next year could produce a record severe weather year in MB.Our current cold weather record is even more impressive considering Northern NA has purportedly had a 2C increase in average temperatures in the last few yrs. This suggests that a return to adjusted NORM will produce in excess of +4C increase for the first 8 months of 2010.Seems like an ideal ingredient for a northerly shift in Tornado Alley
"the southern Hudson Bay had significant above-average ice extent during July." Global and Regional Climate (temp and Pcpn) Data is available for 2009 Jan-July. Link on my name or try http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/index.php?report=global&year=2009&month=jul
At least something in MB is benefiting from our cold weather, Summer Sea Ice Good News for Hudson Bay Polar Bears "This year there is more ice on average," explains Dr. David Barber, a Canada Research Chair in Arctic System Science and the director of the Centre for Earth Observation Science at the University of Manitoba. "Hudson Bay in particular has seen a very cold winter and essentially a late spring.""What we're seeing this year is an aberration compared to the long-term trend," stresses Polar Bears International President, Robert Buchanan, who has been working with polar bears for nearly 20 years, "but essentially the late break-up of ice this year on Hudson Bay means the polar bears, which rely on sea ice to live, have been given more time during spring and summer to hunt and eat seals, and this has allowed them to gain important weight to live off of until freeze-up.
Such a Topic for this SUMMER day. Next you'll want to confirm the HB ice means early frost/winter and a continuation of this dubious cold record.Is HERMES available...or at least APOLLOWhat we really want is to be smiled upon by HELIOS
Potential in SW Manitoba today shifting through the interlake late this evening into the overnight. Cap is strong...but shear is great. All the other ingredients are in place too.If a storm did develop around the Riding Mountains...a right moving supercell could move ESE towards an area just north of the city...like Selkirk perhaps?Anyways...some food for thought! We need a real supercell around here with tornado potential...I'm desperate!
Justin!!!!Why is it that sometimes storms will NOT form until the late night hours!!You usually hear about daytime heating getting the storms to form!What is causing the storms to explode in the middle of the night????
Justin Were those STSs on the Foxwarren and TWN radar a couple of hours ago Clutter??August Interlake has produced for each of the last few years. Better now than earlier..fewer cottagers in late Aug.
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Cap held strong thru the day...Potential still exists for convection this evening. Low level jet accelerates (as it always does at night from surface decoupling of winds) ahead of the disturbance advecting increasingly moist air. Best chance will be thru the interlake and out to the Bissett region. This is where the best lift, nose of LLJ, and coolest mid level temps will be. By 1 or 2 am best threat shifts east with LLJ and we could see convection build south into the Whiteshell area by dawn.
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