Where's the snow?

We had another light dusting of snow today in Winnipeg, but nothing much.. perhaps a cm or so. Snowfall has been quite meager so far this season, with only about 5 cm of snow so far this month. Average November snowfall in Winnipeg is around 21 cm so we are running well below normal with only one week left in the month and little in the way of major snowbearing systems in the long range outlook. However, this is on par for what's been happening over the past decade, with 9 of our past 10 Novembers recording below normal snowfall for the month. Looking back even further, there have been several Novembers in Winnipeg with minimal snowfall. Below is a list of the top 10 least snowy Novembers in Winnipeg since records began in 1872.

YEAR...........SNOWFALL (CM)

1928 .................... TR
1939 ................... 0.5
1987.................... 1.0
1901.................... 1.5
1976 ................... 1.5
1912 ................... 2.5
1981 ................... 2.5
1916 ................... 2.8
1982 ................... 3.2
1913 ................... 4.1
1961 ................... 4.1

So does this slow start to the snow season mean anything for December? Well, if we look at the top 20 least snowy Novembers in Winnipeg, 14 (70%) were followed by below normal snowfall in December, 4 (20%) had near normal snowfall, and only 2 (10%) had above normal snowfall in December. So, based solely on this crude analog method, history would suggest that snowfall this December will likely also be below normal. But before you put away the snow shovel.. remember that each year is different, and there is no guarantee this correlation will work this year. It only takes one major storm to skew the statistics. Also, of the years noted above, only one year since 1950 was a La Nina year (1961).. and that year December had above normal snowfall. I merely present these stats for what they are.. interesting but not necessarily a reliable predictor for this year. As they say in the mutual fund business.. Past performance does not guarantee future results :)