Sunday, October 07, 2007

Significant rain possible over SE MB Monday

A new storm system developing over Minnesota will track into Northwest Ontario Monday and intensify. Significant rain is expected to develop on the northwest wide of this storm system, affecting much of southeast MB and the Red River valley Monday including Winnipeg. 20 to 30 mm of rain is possible over southeast MB with little or no rain expected west of the Red River valley. In addition, it will be quite cool as northwest winds tap some colder air aloft, bringing temperatures down to the 5c mark by afternoon. A good day to stay inside and enjoy some Thanksgiving leftovers!


  1. The volatility in the models is in sharp contrast to the very consistent conditions at Winnipeg since Friday... oppressive overcast and temperatures hovering in the high single digits for three consecutive days... yuck

    It will be interesting to see how far west the precip will get on Monday... If the weather is going to be dreadful, we may as well pick up some rain to offset the deficits incurred since July.

  2. Radar shows large area of rain spreading over much of southern MB all the way to SK border. This system has an inverted trof extending into SE SK which is supporting the precipitation further west than the models suggested. Looks like everyone will get something out of this system, with a good soaking rain over the Red River valley and SE MB.

  3. By the way, models are also indicating a cold pool developing aloft today with 850 temperatures dropping below freezing this afternoon over southern MB! Although the precip should stay as rain here, I wouldn't be surprised to hear of some wet snowflakes mixing in by evening in some places, especially northwest of Winnipeg over higher elevations. Regardless, it will be the wettest and coldest day of the long weekend here with temperatures steady in the mid single-digits or falling this afternoon. A dismal weekend indeed! Compare that to southern Ontario where Windsor and Sarnia will have had 4 straight days over 30C!

  4. What are the odds of snow in SE MB? And do you think the svr tstrm season is done?

  5. Well it is 3 C in Winnipeg right now and it is only 8:00 p.m
    There might be a remote chance to see some flakes even here
    Dauphin is even colder right now with a reading of only 1 C.

  6. I see many temperatures going below 3 degrees, the lowest I can spot is from the MB Ag website with Eriksdale at 0.1 degrees (0). Maybe it is snowing there. With freezing temps at 850mb, how fast can snow melt before reaching the ground?

  7. First snow of the season is here!

    My thermometer reading is now down to 1C and I see the rain is starting to mix with large snowflakes. I'm located in RM of St. Andrews around 15 km northeast of Winnipeg.

  8. My thermometer, no very good, but it show 34 Fahrenheit, about 1 Celsius. It seems like it could snow at anytime at Steinbach. It wouldn't surprise me if snow became more widespread, as rob said the cold pool developed across south central and south east MB. I sure hope we get some. It doesn't matter as it will melt tomorrow if any could accumulate.

  9. I drove to Yorkton SK on Friday and it drizzled or rained most of the way. It rained most of Saturday there. Sunday was cloudy but dry. For the Monday drive back I thought surely the trip would be dry, but again, rain most of the way, and even some flakes of wet snow along the Yellow Head.

    At home in River Heights I've collected 22 mm, virtually identical to the River Heights station listed on this web site.

    So quite a long weekend, not an hour of sun and precipitation for most of my 900 km drive.