Sunday, April 29, 2012
Scattered showers likely today.. isolated thunderstorms possible near US border
A generally cloudy and breezy day is on tap today across Southern Manitoba as a low pressure area over far southwest Manitoba moves slowly northward this afternoon. Scattered showers rotating around the low are expected across southern MB today although rainfall amounts should be light and much of the day should be rain free. Near and south of the US border, there is a risk of isolated thunderstorms later this afternoon into this evening as some breaks in the cloud cover help destabilize the airmass. Some of these thunderstorms may cross into far southern RRV later today into this evening although they will be weak and short lived. Drier conditions are forecast Monday over southern MB before another round of possible showers and thunderstorms moves in on Tuesday.
Looks like we are getting a few breaks in the clouds in Southwestern Manitoba,a band of showers could continue to develop with some embedded thunder!!
ReplyDeleteA few showers west and east of Winnipeg streaming northward, but not much in the way of lightning showing up over ND or southern MB. Not enough energy this afternoon despite the cold air aloft with the upper low to the west. Might still see an isolated lightning strike or two to our west over the next our or so, but daytime heating is waning quickly.
ReplyDeleteTuesday looking more promising for potential thunderstorms over southern MB including Winnipeg, with warmer and more humid airmass moving in. SPC forecasting a slight risk of severe tstorms over RRV and northern MN Tuesday.
Parents called from Elie. Quite the heavy downpour in the past 15 mins!!
ReplyDeleteYes.. a narrow line of heavier showers to the west of Winnipeg approaching slowly towards the city. Amounts of 2-5 mm with the band according to CWB mesonet, with peak rainfall rates of 25-75 mm/hr at times. There was a lightning strike earlier with the band east of Portage.. but no lightning activity right now over southern MB.
ReplyDelete74 km/h wind gusts with this line of showers as it moves through Winnipeg!!
ReplyDeleteHad a nice moderate shower here in Altona early this evening.
ReplyDeleteLooking forward to what Tuesday has to offer. Models fire elevated convection late Monday night in North Dakota and push it north. If it holds together, we could see some storms on Tuesday morning into the afternoon.
That would probably hurt any potential later in the day for surface based convection. Best chance for anything surface based looks to be south and east of us.
Thoughts on Tuesday?
I hope we get some really big thunderstorms. Some that really pack a punch, know what I mean? Last year was a washout for those massive thunderstorms that dump huge amounts of water and flood the streets in like a minute. I want Biblical!
ReplyDeleteI don't consider it a good thunderstorm unless basements flood. For me, that's a good thunderstorm.
ReplyDeleteAs long as it's your basement and not mine.. :)
ReplyDeleteDerek.. looking at the latest progs, I agree with your convective assessment for Tuesday. Best chance for seeing thunderstorm activity for Winnipeg/RRV would be with the elevated stuff Tuesday morning ahead of the warm front. Stronger afternoon/evening activity will shift southeast of us as low and frontal boundaries move east, with a better chance of some stronger storms over SE MB and northern MN as per SPC Day 2 outlook.
Rob,
ReplyDeleteI really hope we get some massive thunderstorms this summer, the kind that create rain rates of 200 to 300 mm/hr. That's a good thunderstorm.
As for basement flooding, well anyone who doesn't have backup valves, and sump pumps, and direct the downspouts away from the foundation, they deserve what they get.
I love t-storms just as much as most on here, but obviously lots of folks on here are apartment dwellers and not home owners. If you ever had to clean up a flooded basement then you would never wish it on anyone.
ReplyDeleteLooks like some showers and thundershowers are starting to form in western Manitoba. Let the storm season begin :P
ReplyDeleteOh boy! Look at the storms forming to the West!!! Hopefully we get a real show tonight!!! Bring on the rain 'cause my garden is DRY!!!
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ReplyDeleteI've been on this blog for the last 8 years, a lot longer than you probably have. I'm not going anywhere, anytime soon!!
ReplyDeleteI enjoy your comments Daniel P, and I'm sure I'm not the only one. It would be a shame to see your go.
ReplyDeletePlease post comments on the weather instead of personal attacks. Such posts will be deleted. Thanks for your understanding.
ReplyDeleteNow, back to the weather..