The first blast of fall like weather pushed into southern Manitoba yesterday, resulting in below normal temperatures, gusty north winds, lake effect precipitation and frost over parts of southern Manitoba this morning. Well below normal temperatures continued today with brisk northwest winds keeping temperatures only near 10C this afternoon. For tonight, a ridge of high pressure over Saskatchewan will build over southern Manitoba bringing clearing skies and light winds. This will lead to a widespread freeze over southern Manitoba by Thursday morning, with overnight lows of -1 to -4C forecast in most areas. (Downtown Winnipeg and areas along the MB lakeshores should escape the freeze tonight) The first frost over Winnipeg and the Red River valley usually isn't until the third week of September, so this year's first frost is arriving about a week earlier than normal. Sunny and milder weather will develop Thursday into Friday as the high pressure ridge pushes east and we get into a moderating southerly flow. A frontal system pushing in from the west threatens showers for Sunday.
Wednesday, September 14, 2011
Widespread freeze tonight.. warmer weather for end of week into next week
The first blast of fall like weather pushed into southern Manitoba yesterday, resulting in below normal temperatures, gusty north winds, lake effect precipitation and frost over parts of southern Manitoba this morning. Well below normal temperatures continued today with brisk northwest winds keeping temperatures only near 10C this afternoon. For tonight, a ridge of high pressure over Saskatchewan will build over southern Manitoba bringing clearing skies and light winds. This will lead to a widespread freeze over southern Manitoba by Thursday morning, with overnight lows of -1 to -4C forecast in most areas. (Downtown Winnipeg and areas along the MB lakeshores should escape the freeze tonight) The first frost over Winnipeg and the Red River valley usually isn't until the third week of September, so this year's first frost is arriving about a week earlier than normal. Sunny and milder weather will develop Thursday into Friday as the high pressure ridge pushes east and we get into a moderating southerly flow. A frontal system pushing in from the west threatens showers for Sunday.
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What is the record low temperature tonight into the morning for Winnipeg???
ReplyDeleteI have a feeling Winnipeg airport will tank out at -3 C tonight. It will be a hard freeze in the suburbs for sure!!
ReplyDeleteI agree Daniel, with calm northerly winds and clear overnight skies we could hit below zero temperatures in the range between 0 and -5C. If we get that cold like -4C we could smash that record set back in 1964 at -3.3C. First time I've used the minus symbol in a long stretch.
ReplyDeleteI for one appreciate the better night's rest in a cold bedroom - I'm enjoying this early taste of fall.
ReplyDeleteRecord low for Winnipeg tomorrow is -4.4C from 1903. I don't think the airport will get that cold as we pick up a light southerly flow overnight, which should advect some urban warmth over the airport site overnight. Note also that dewpoints are higher in the RRV and SE MB this evening thanks to that northerly off lake flow today and shower activity. That may save us from dropping too quickly tonight.
ReplyDeleteThose high dew points leading to some fog formation which may further help stabilize temps. With flow already SW at the airport it may be difficult for it to drop below zero tonite..
ReplyDeleteHere in Saskatoon, it was -6 this morning. The radiational cooling was very evident because plants that were sheltered by tree branches did not freeze, while those in the open did. My metal table was coated in thick ice. My unheated greenhouse bottomed out at +2.
ReplyDeleteHave a 19F reading this morning in Wannaska in Roseau county MN
ReplyDeleteDoes the airport have some artificial heating close by to their weather equipment. Noticed they never dropped below 1 but my truck had thick ice over the windows to the point I couldn't even roll the windows down this morning.
ReplyDeleteFrost all over my neigbourhood this morning I could even see my breath. we obviously dropped below zero overnight in st.james I guess the airport temp is out of wack.. All of our car windows were frozen.
ReplyDeleteI guess with that rain we had last evening, there was a thick dew that formed on the cars and since it was so closeing to 0 it froze on the cars...maybe!!
ReplyDeleteWe avoided a big freezing event in my part of central south-west River Heights. Even the coleus survived, maybe because it was close to the house. But everything OK!!
ReplyDeleteRob....that google map with the radar data overlay was a truly amazing find. I always wondered if there was ever going to be a day where I could zoom right into the neighborhoods and see the storm in detail.
ReplyDeleteIs that EC radar data on top of google maps??? Or is that NWS data?? I'm confused? Why when you clicked the link at first there was no data at all??
Minimum temperature at the YWG airport fell to -0.1C briefly this morning, even though temps were above zero most of the night. But you can easily have frost on grass surfaces and vehicles even with temperatures slightly above freezing when skies are clear and winds are light. Official temperatures are taken at 1.5M above ground level, and temperatures can be several degrees colder as you get to ground level (cold air sinks) I agree with daniel that the frost this morning was particularly heavy because we had a lot of moisture around last evening, and it froze overnight (as opposed to if the airmass was drier)
ReplyDeleteHere in Charleswood, I had a low temperature of -1.4C with lots of frost around. Most areas on the edge and outside the city had a freeze last night, with temperatures of -1 to -4C through the RRV (except along the western RRV which had some downslope warming from SW winds) Coldest readings were over the southern RRV and along the Minnesota border with Sprague the cold spot at a chilly -6C.
daniel..
ReplyDeleteThe weather underground radar uses radar data from EC. Unfortunately, it only displays Doppler reflectivity which has a limited range of only 120 km from the radar site (in our case Woodlands) WU doesn't currently display EC's full conventional reflectivity radar which goes out to 220 km. Hopefully they will add it in the near future.
So yes, we have to go to an American website to get a better display of Canadian radar data!
How badly do people want conventional Canadian radar in Google Earth/Maps, so you can zoom in and see the storms in detail? I have it running at work, and could set up a public version on my home server. However only if people are really interested (i.e. it may require extra bandwidth which will cost me money).
ReplyDeleteI can go to Google Earth and get radar overlays on that but they look like a horrible pixelated mess when zoomed in.
ReplyDeleteYes, I don't know why they degrade the radar image so badly (for the satellite imagery as well).
ReplyDeleteYou also can't animate radar imagery that Google provides.
ReplyDeleteI do know that KTIV Interactive radar has some features it can be animated, you can look ahead for the next few days on a variety of weather information on futurecast and see cloud cover in high quality as well as radar and info on each storm.
ReplyDeleteHi EVERYONE!
ReplyDeleteBrent Anderson from ACCUWEATHER has released some preliminary data as to what this upcoming winter could be like.
Go to:
www.accuweather.com
Then click on the blog section.
Check it out!!!
Daniel I checked out the article you mentioned. It looks like our upcoming winter will be a lot similar to last years winter. (Tonnes of snow and seasonable temps). I hope it won't be too cold.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, later next week our pattern looks like it will change, from being unusually cold to seasonably warm Back into the low to mid 20s. This will occur as ridge of high pressure forms over the northern plains on tuesday. Bringing with it warm weather and a southerly wind which we are used to at this time of year.These kinds of occurences are going to become less likely as the year moves on and winter approaches. I will have more details later on in the week, but in the meantime beware of the frost and cold morning temperatures. Seems like global warming is waning on us here in manitoba.
One more thing I will for sure be attending the open house on saturday, so whoever is working at the NWS in Grand forks, I will see you then. Looking forward to it!
That KTIV product is kind of slick. Thanks for the info Mike.
ReplyDeleteYep, I hope it works well for you!
ReplyDeletemight be a chance for some well needed rain tomorrow, also a slight chance for thunderstorms. This will happen with the passage of a cold front on saturday evening at around 00Z. The Severe weather kinematics aren't looking so good for this cold front to kick off some big storms as the temperatures it will plow into are looking quite cool. I really think at the most cape will be around 1000 J/kg, if not higher. The only thing is if we see some peaks of sun it may be enough to form some very weak storms at the most. Overall it'll be a rain event.
ReplyDeleteRob you may want to make a posting of this event with some more information.
Mike, I don't think there will be more than 500J/Kg of CAPE at max...
ReplyDeleteWith the tds of 10C we don't have much chance of a chance of seeing t-storms. Could be a bit of rain, 1-3mm maybe.
thanks for the correction Anon...
ReplyDeleteIts alright if we don't see any storms, although we need the rain quite badly 1-3mm will do. I may have the chance to see a few storms in grand forks tomorrow, If I get lucky.
thanks for the correction Anon...
ReplyDeleteIts alright if we don't see any storms, although we need the rain quite badly 1-3mm will do. I may have the chance to see a few storms in grand forks tomorrow, If I get lucky.
Huge change in the forecast for tomorrow. A moist southerly flow isentropically lifting moisture from the Northern Plains over Southern Manitoba. Extensive stratus deck should thicken and expand this evening as boundary layer decouples and LLJ re-intensifies.
ReplyDeleteSunshine and warm temps are gone for the RRV tomorrow as stratus will sock in solidly and keep our temperatures down in the high single-digits and low double-digits. Incoming shortwave will spread showers into SW MB by tomorrow afternoon which will then progress eastwards and expand overnight. Many locales will likely see up to 5mm of rain.
Thunderstorm threat is nil tomorrow with extensive cloud coverage hindering daytime heating and upper-level thermodynamics not favourable to convection.
Slight chance of temperatures shooting up to the upper teens if we can get some late-afternoon sunshine as some mid/upper-level cloud from incoming shortwave enters the province. If this cloud can eat away some of the stratus ahead of it, temperatures of 17-19 aren't out of the question. However, if the stratus that formed today is any indication, that's a pipe dream.
Also, CBC ran a great article about the cuts happening at Environment Canada. I put a link to it and a bit of commentary over on my blog: http://cl.ly/ABe5
ReplyDeleteMike , when you get back from Grand Forks, let me know how the open house was!!!!
ReplyDeleteHave fun out there!
Hi everyone I'm back, I will let you know how my visit was tomorrow, as I am fairly tired after a long trip. TTYL everyone
ReplyDeleteRob!
ReplyDeleteYou see a risk of storms for tomorrow night here in Winnipeg???
Some towering cumulus clouds out to the west of the city of Winnipeg!
ReplyDeleteInteresting to see in Mid September!!
Hey everyone, as daniel asked I had an awesome time in Grand Forks, and the tour at the NWS superb. My day started off by sitting in the van for 3 hours going at interstate speed, we eventually arrived in grand forks around 1pm and made our way to the NWS. When we arrived the meteorologists were very surprised to hear that we drove all the way from winnipeg so they offered to give us as many of their merchandise items that we wanted, including a chance to win a rain gauge. Before our tour they had a display of Hurricane Irene and some pictures of their old office building, as well pictures of the fargo tornado. Although I can't remember what year it hit. At 1:11 pm our had started and we were directed to the conference room where we were shown a slideshow about what the NWS does daily especially online. We were then directed to the inner workings of the NWS where they follow the days weather with several people and computer screens. I also met Dan who posts the odd time on this blog he works at the NWS in GF so I say hi to him. They also monitor the equipment to make sure everything works things like the dopplar radar, and weatheradio alerting systems. They also have a team at the NWS called HAM radio operators who get information from skywarn members during severe weather.I also was directed to the data room where they have supercomputers which sort through data and then give that back to the NWS teams for analysis. In the data room they have a computer that manages the weatheradio transmitters across north dakota, so its fairly an advanced system. I also was taught how they measure water and river levels they have a machine which creates a bubble of air that goes through a tube, the more air it takes that bubble to get to the surface the deeper the water. That reading goes onto a display. Last but not least, our tour ended as we met up with a stormchaser from TVN or Tornado videos.net( he knows reed timmer) he told me personally that SW MB and SE Sask are breading grounds for supercells and is the best place on earth to chase because it is all in an open area. He was CRAZY about it!
ReplyDeleteI Had asked him what would you say about a tornado hitting winnipeg? He replied " Its just a matter of luck but it is a possibilty,and will happen eventually. Imagine throwing darts on a map there are 1000s of targets, that is the same for storms with the towns and cities all around. Your just waiting for a direct hit. Any storm that forms has many targets in its path and will someday pick the biggest target of all your town." He also said to take storm chasing seriously because its a dangerous job.
thats my day, except I forgot to mention that I went shoppping and had lunch in grand forks.
Thats my trip!
Sorry for such the lengthy comment above.
ReplyDeleteI'm just noticing some storms subsevere scattered in nature to our west near brandron they are looking like they are moving East. The same goes for some storms out east of us just west of lac du bonnet. Picking up some nice squall line signatures in them as well.
I will have to wait and see how they progress over the next few hours.
Sounds like you had a blast Mike!
ReplyDeleteGood to hear all about it!!
Thanx for the info Mike . Thought I would make it yesterday, but ended up in Brandon.
ReplyDeleteDon
Mike
ReplyDeleteGlad you were able to come down. Nice to see you...if anyone does want to visit the NWS Office you can, just call a few days or so ahead of time. On the bottom of FGF webpage is our public number to call.
thanks dan, I appreciate it and I will let you know if we want to come down for another tour even though the drive down is at least 3-4hours long. So I will keep that in mind for the future. Keep up the great work on forecasting the weather. TTYL
ReplyDelete