Cool week ahead..

It won't be very summerlike this week as a large-scale upper trough sets up over Ontario bringing a northwest flow of generally below normal temperatures over southern MB for the upcoming week.  High temperatures this week will generally be running in the low 20s, some 3-5C below the average high of 26C for this time of year, making it feel more like mid to late August. For today, brisk northwest winds and generally cloudy skies will keep temperatures only near 20C before skies clear tonight allowing temperatures to dip into the single digits overnight. Tuesday looks more pleasant with sunshine and lighter winds, and afternoon highs near 24C.  Another disturbance tracking through southern MB threatens more showers and possible thunderstorms for Wednesday into Wednesday night, followed by a reinforcing shot of cooler air for Thursday.  Highs pressure building into southern MB is expected to bring sunshine and pleasant conditions for the weekend with temperatures around the 22-24C mark. Long range guidance is hinting at a return to more summer like weather next week.

Showers and thundertorm possible overnight into Thursday.. cooler weather for weekend

A wave of low pressure moving along a frontal system just south of the US border will bring an increasing threat of showers and thunderstorms to southern MB overnight into Thursday morning. Locally heavy downpours are possible with this activity, with rainfall amounts of 15-25 mm possible in some areas.  As this precipitation moves out by midday, a trailing cold front will bring the threat of more thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening, especially across southwestern MB. This cold front will mark the leading edge of cooler air that will flood into southern MB Friday into Saturday.  Daytime highs Saturday will only be around 20C, with overnight lows likely dipping into the single digits by Sunday morning. Warmer weather is expected to return early next week with highs back in the upper 20s.  

Showers and thunderstorms likely Monday night into Tuesday.. then turning warmer and drier for end of week..

After a stormy end to June with bouts of heavy rainfall, Winnipeg has yet to see any precipitation in July as a drier and warmer weather pattern evolves. Strong thunderstorm activity last evening over western MB pushed into the RRV overnight, but only managed to produce a few raindrops in the city as the storms weekened or split. The next threat of significant rainfall for the city will be Monday night into Tuesday as a storm system from Montana tracks into North Dakota. This system will likely spread an area of showers and thunderstorms along the US border which will push into southern MB Monday night into Tuesday. Some of the rain will be heavy with these thunderstorms with rainfall amounts of 25-50 mm possible in some areas, along with the potential for hail and frequent lightning. Things should clear out Tuesday evening with a return to drier and warmer weather for the latter part of the week.              

Hot week ahead as heat wave builds over western Canada

A massive upper ridge over western North America is producing some of the hottest weather in years over parts of the western US, and some of this heat will be spreading across western Canada and the Prairies this week. BC and Alberta will see the hottest weather over the Canada Day weekend before the heat spreads east over the eastern Prairies during the upcoming week. For Winnipeg, sunny warm weather will prevail today and Canada Day with temperatures in the upper 20s along with light winds and comfortable humidity.  The heat starts turning up Tuesday and Wednesday as temperatures climb into the low 30s under sunny skies. A weak front may bring some scattered thunderstorms by Thursday and Friday, with slightly cooler weather expected over the weekend.  

First 30C of the year possible for Winnipeg today.. severe thunderstorms likely over SW Manitoba by evening

Spectacular image of shelf cloud with thunderstorm
approaching Swift Current SK Monday evening.
Severe thunderstorms possible over SW Manitoba
later today.  (image credit @JorBraun) 

It's taken awhile.. but it looks like Winnipeg could be seeing its first 30C reading of the year today as a warm front along the US border lifts north today, tapping very warm and humid air from the south. The increasing humidity will result in humidex values rising to the mid 30s this afternoon.. especially over the southern RRV. By this evening, a trof of low pressure pushing into SE Saskatchewan is expected to trigger some strong to locally severe thunderstorms over SW Manitoba with torrential rain, large hail and strong wind gusts as the primary threats. Isolated tornadoes are also possible with initial strong storms that develop.  The thunderstorms are expected to spread into the Interlake and RRV late this evening.. with the potential for heavy rain and strong winds as well as frequent lightning. Welcome to summer!  

UPDATE: A high of 30.7C at YWG airport today.. the first 30C reading of the year.