Cool October marks first below normal month in Winnipeg since May 2011

October 2012 temperature
summary for Winnipeg

A cooler than normal October will go down as the first below normal month in Winnipeg since May 2011.. or 17 months ago. Over that time, Winnipeg has seen 16 consecutive months near or above normal including 14 straight months above normal from July 2011 to August 2012, an unprecedented stretch of warmth in Winnipeg since records began 140 years ago in 1872.  October finished with a mean temperature of +4.0C, or about 1.3C below the normal October mean of 5.3C (based on 1971-2000 averages).  The bigger story for October was the return of some much needed precipitation, with 57.5 mm recorded at YWG airport, about 20 mm wetter than normal for October. It was the first wetter than normal month in Winnipeg since May, and comes after an exceptionally dry September  that was the second driest on record. Precipitation amounts were even greater elsewhere in the city with 72 mm at the Forks and 85 mm in Charleswood. Outside the city, the big weather story in October was the early October snowstorm on the 4th that brought up to 30 cm of heavy snow over southeast MB.    

Colder weather on tap..

Colder weather is on tap over southern Manitoba for the next few days as a cold northwest flow sets up behind a storm system intensifying over northern Ontario Thursday.  This system will drag the coldest air of the season so far over southern Manitoba, with daytime highs only near or slightly above freezing, some 5-7C below normal for late October.  The cold weather will be accompanied by mainly cloudy skies and occasional flurry activity, with locally heavier snow bands possible to the southeast of Lakes Winnipeg and Manitoba. The cold weather is expected to persist through the weekend into early next week, with a moderating trend possible later next week.

More rain Tuesday.. turning colder by late week with snow possible..

60 hr GLB valid Tuesday morning
Oct 23rd with rain spreading into
southern MB

Generally fair and seasonable weather is expected today and Monday, before another round of wet weather moves in Tuesday. After that, things will get progressively colder through the end of week into next weekend, with well below normal temperatures expected through the end of October. The colder weather will bring some snowflurries later this week, with some accumulating snow possible at times.  For today, cloudy skies and scattered light showers this morning will give way to thinning clouds this afternoon, with afternoon highs near 10C accompanied by northwest winds of 20 km/h.  Morning sunshine Monday will give way to increasing clouds ahead of the next system, which is expected to spread some rain over southern MB overnight Monday into Tuesday. At this point, it looks like about 10-20 mm of rain is possible for Winnipeg  and the RRV, with higher amounts of 20-30 mm over southwest MB into the interlake regions.

Yikes!  132 hr GLB valid Friday
Oct 26th shows potential snowstorm
over southern MB/NW Ont

Rain will gradually pull off Wednesday followed by a northwest flow of colder air for Thursday into the weekend. This will be the coldest outbreak of the season so far, with high temperatures only near freezing or even below through the weekend into early next week, along with the possibility of accumulating snow. In fact, long range guidance is suggesting the potential of a significant snowstorm over portions of southern MB or NW Ontario by Friday. Stay tuned..       

Another soaking rainfall over southern MB.. more rain and wind today

A strong low pressure system over northern Minnesota brought another soaking rain over southern Manitoba Wednesday into last night, with amounts of 15 to 40 mm recorded in the past 24 hours.  Amounts were heaviest along the western RRV with amounts of 30 to 40 mm recorded from Portage through Carman to Morden. Lesser amounts fell in Winnipeg with about 15 mm through midnight. More rain is likely today as another batch of showers moves in this morning with 5 to 10 mm possible by evening, along with increasing northerly winds gusting to 70 km/h at times this afternoon into this evening.  The rain has brought some much needed moisture to southern MB, after an exceptionally dry September that saw only 4 mm fall all month in Winnipeg. Rainfall this month is now up to 36 mm at the airport as of this morning, and 50 mm at the Forks. Normal October precipitation is 36 mm, so this month will be the first month since May that has seen above normal precipitation in Winnipeg.  Things are expected to dry out for the weekend into early next week, but long range guidance is hinting at the possibility of a strong storm system moving across the northern Dakotas by the end of next week bringing another round of significant  precipitation over southern MB, with a soaking rain possibly changing to snow.  Stay tuned..   

Brisk southerly winds Friday to usher in milder weekend..

After more than a week of below normal temperatures, conditions will be becoming milder this weekend as winds shift into the south and southwest.  Temperatures will finally be returning into the double digits after being generally in the single digits since Oct 3rd.  The change to milder weather will be heralded by strong southerly winds Friday gusting to 60 or 70 km/h, which combined with afternoon temperatures in the 5-10C range will feel quite brisk. Things will feel a lot milder on the weekend, as temperatures climb into the low to middle double digits, along with lighter winds and sunshine. Normal highs for this time of year are 11C, with normal lows of 0C.  Near to above normal temperatures are expected early next week, before a return to colder weather by the middle to latter part of the week.