A frigid night on tap

A large Arctic airmass has spread over the Prairies, bringing well below normal temperatures across all of western Canada. The core of the cold air is being brought down by a large high pressure system centered over central Saskatchewan this morning. Temperatures under this high were in the minus 35 to minus 40 range this morning with a bone-chilling -44C in Meadow Lake, SK. This high pressure area will build over southwest MB tonight bringing frigid temperatures to southern MB overnight into Friday morning. Expect temperatures to drop to the -35C mark in many areas early Friday morning, with a possibility of -40C temperatures in traditionally colder spots (such as Wasagaming) Fortunately, winds will be light so wind chill will not be a factor. Exhaust fog however will be an issue for the morning commute. Bundle up!

Wintery weather to return to southern MB

It’s been fairly quiet weatherwise across southern MB over the past couple of weeks.. but Old Man winter is by no means done with us yet.  On Tuesday, a system tracking across the northern Plains will bring an area of snow across southern MB, moving into the Winnipeg area around the lunch hour. Snow will steadily increase through the afternoon into the early evening before tapering off Tuesday night. 5 to 10 cm of snow is possible over the Red River valley and SE MB including Winnipeg, with up to 15 cm possible over southeastern MB. Behind the system, an arctic ridge of high pressure will bring a fresh Arctic outbreak over southern MB for Wednesday through Friday with well below normal temperatures.  

Province releases preliminary flood outlook

The Manitoba provincial government released its first spring flooding outlook for southern MB today, and preliminary data suggests there will likely be significant flooding on the Red River this spring. A wet fall, cold winter, heavy snowpack south of the border, and a rare February rainfall event has led to above average soil moisture conditions in the Red River watershed. (click here for an aerial survey of snowpack water content as of early February) Based on average weather conditions over the next 6-8 weeks, a flood comparable to that of 2006 or 1996 will likely develop on the Red River this spring, which will cut off Morris and much of Hwy 75 for at least 1-2 weeks. Unfavourable weather over the next 2 months (i.e. wetter than normal) would produce a flood about 2 feet higher than 2006, but still well below that of 1997. Transportation on Hwy 75 would be cut off for 2-3 weeks in this scenario. Currently however, the risk for a 1997 flood is less than 5%.

Note this flood outlook is very preliminary and could change significantly based on weather conditions over the next 6-8 weeks. However, based on "average" weather conditions through the end of March, it appears there will be some significant flooding on the Red this spring.

NWS GFK releases updated 3 month outlook

The NWS office in Grand Forks has released an updated late winter/spring outlook covering the Feb-April period. The outlook suggests that a resurgent La-Nina will give a greater liklihood of generally cooler and wetter than normal weather over the next 3 months over the northern Plains. This will increase the odds of major flooding on the Red River this spring, as a recent press release from NOAA indicates. Soil moisture levels going into the winter were high from a wet fall, and a cold and snowy winter across ND has increased the risk of high water levels on the Red come the spring melt.

Freezing rain turns MB roads into skating rinks

Freezing rain overnight into this morning turned roads and walkways into skating rinks today across southern MB. 5-10 mm of freezing rain fell between 4 and 8 am across the Winnipeg area, turning the morning commute into an icy mess. Hundreds of vehicles slid into ditches across MB roadways, forcing the closure of several major highways including the TransCanada and Hwy 75. Conditions gradually improved during the day as temperatures climbed to +2C.. however additional rainfall on the still cold ground resulted in extremely icy conditions on walkways and untreated roads through the day into the night.