Strong clipper to usher in cold blast next week

The weather has been decidedly benign over the Prairies this month, with many places still without a snowcover. In fact, take a drive down Highway 75 from Winnipeg and you'll see little or no snow on the ground by the time you get to Morris.  Likewise much of southern SK and southern AB remain snowfree. The lack of weather systems affecting the Prairies this month has meant little precipitation as well as above normal temperatures, especially over the western Prairies. Things will change next week however as an intensifying Alberta clipper tracks across the Prairies, bringing a band of snow with it, followed by a strong push of cold air behind it. 

Models are indicating this storm system will develop over Northern Alberta next Monday (Dec 1st) moving into the MB Interlake area on Tuesday (Dec 2nd).  The storm system will be preceded by a push of mild Pacific air that will send temperatures well above normal over the southern Prairies Dec 1st-2nd.. especially over snowfree areas. North of the storm track however, a band of snow will be moving across the Prairies pushing into central and southern MB on Tuesday. At this point, models are indicating the bulk of the snow (10-15 cm) will fall mainly north of Winnipeg through the Interlake area and central MB. However, the snow could push further south with a more southern storm track. As the storm moves east into Ontario, cold northwest winds behind it will draw much colder air from the Arctic over southern MB, bringing temperatures into the minus teens for mid to late week, into next weekend.     

NOAA releases winter outlook

NOAA forecasters in the US have released their outlook for the upcoming 2008-09 winter. Their outlook indicates more variability in the weather this winter, with no clear signal for warmer or colder conditions this winter over much of the US. Data suggests only the Mississippi Valley having slightly better odds of a warmer than normal winter. Elsewhere, including the northern Plains, there is not enough predictive correlations to say what kind of winter to expect this year. This is due to the absence of an El Nino or La Nina this year in the Pacific, which historically provide better skill in predicting winter temperature and precipitation patterns, especially in the western US. As a result.. other climatic patterns will influence our winter this year, including the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North American oscillation (NAO), although these patterns are harder to predict long term, and have less predictive skill to our overall winter than the Pacific ocean patterns. All we can say this year for the upcoming winter in Manitoba is "We'll have to wait and see". Environment Canada will release their 3 month winter outlook for Canada on Dec 1st.

UPDATE: (Nov 27): The NWS office in Grand Forks has released their own local winter outlook for North Dakota based on climatological patterns for the Northern Plains. Their prediction calls for a generally colder than normal winter for the Red River valley, with above average snowfall. Overall, they expect a lot of variability this winter (i.e. roller coaster pattern) with a couple of distinct cold periods.. one from early to mid December, and another from late January to mid February. They also point to a cooler than normal spring.

Dry and pleasant rest of November

The weather has been very quiet here in Southern MB the last couple of weeks, and it appears the quiet weather pattern will stay with us the rest of the month. According to long range models, no major precipitation bearing systems are forecast to affect us through the end of November, which will be a disappointment for those looking for snow, but good news for those not ready to put up with winter's worse just yet. Snowfall has been meager over southern MB this month since our first major snowfall of the season back on Nov 6-7th. Here in Winnipeg, we've had just 2-3 cm of minor snowfalls since the 8 cm in the Nov 6-7th storm. In fact, much of the Red River valley south and east of Winnipeg still has little or no snow on the ground.

Temperatures will also be near to above normal for the rest of the month, with daily highs in the minus 2 to minus 4 mark the rest of the week into the weekend (with above freezing temperatures possible over snowfree areas). So it appears that after a somewhat early start, Old Man winter has taken some time off. Is he resting up for a nasty return visit in December? Or is he just getting old and tired? Time will tell. At this point however, it appears that a major snowfall is not in the cards for southern MB for the foreseeable future.

Manitoba snowlovers, look away

Our weather has been so boring here lately, I thought I'd post an image showing what heavy snow looks like. This is a photo of a van in Arkona, Ontario buried in over 76 cm of snow that fell during a major snowsquall off Lake Huron Thursday night into Friday morning. (Arkona is located just west of London, Ontario) The snow came down so heavy so fast that numerous motorists were stranded on highways in the area, and emergency officials were forced to use SUVs and snowmobiles to rescue stranded travellers. There were unofficial reports of snow 4-5 FEET deep (120-150 cm) in places. Snowsqualls are a fact of life to the lee of the Great Lakes, but even long time residents in the area say they had never seen so much snow falling in such a short period of time as Thursday night. Given the accumulations, snow was likely falling at 10-15 cm/hr at times during the event. For additional photos on this event, click here and here.

Manitoba Lakes Ice Cover

I had a request asking about the status of the freeze up on the Manitoba lakes. The image posted here is a MODIS satellite photo taken Monday afternoon Nov 17th showing the latest ice conditions on our lakes. Dark blue areas are open water, still evident over much of Lake Winnipeg (right) while light blue (turquoise) areas are snow covered and/or ice areas. Grey/white areas are clouds (notice the impressive lake-effect clouds off the lakes) while beige areas are bare ground and green areas are forested. The image shows that much of Lake Winnipegosis is ice covered, except for an open area in the far north, while Lake Manitoba appears to have thin ice forming over much of the basin. I suspect Lake Manitoba will be frozen over by this weekend given the upcoming cold weather.

These high resolution satellite images over Manitoba are available at the MODIS remote sensing website. You can monitor the progress of the lake freeze up with daily updates on this site.