Ideal conditions for Halloween

It won't be quite as mild as yesterday's 17-20C weather, but conditions will still be ideal for trick or treaters this evening as a ridge of high pressure moves across southern MB today. Mainly clear skies are expected this evening with light winds and seasonable temperatures. After an afternoon high of +7C today, look for 6 pm temperatures around +4C dropping to +1C by 9 pm.  Best of all, there will be no snow or mud to track through as conditions have been dry for several days now.  Last year, after some rain and wet snow in the afternoon, conditions cleared for the evening with temperatures of +2C at 6 pm falling to -4C by 9 pm.  Two years ago, kids had to track through 10 cm of snow on the ground after a snowstorm on Oct 30th dumped 12 cm of snow in Winnipeg.  

Some Halloween weather highlights for Winnipeg since 1953..

Warmest Halloween…. 1999 - 6 pm temp: 15C
Coldest Halloween….1996 - 6 pm temp: -9C
Wettest Halloween… 2000 - 11.6 mm rain
Whitest Halloween.. 1971 - 18 cm snow on ground  
"Scariest" Halloween.. 1979
Rain changing to wet snow, Temp +1C, winds N 48 km/h 

Nice finish to October

Some pleasant fall weather will finish up the month of October over southern MB with mainly sunny skies and nice temperatures. In fact, today Winnipeg will get into the mid teens as we get into a brief warm sector that brought some record temperatures in the low 20s across southwest MB and southern SK Wednesday. Cooler air moving in  later this afternoon will prevent Winnipeg from reaching the low 20s as happened further west. Temperatures will be a bit cooler on Friday with highs in the 7-10C range, but conditions should be ideal for trick or treaters Friday evening with mainly clear skies, light SE winds and temperatures around +5C.

Warming trend this week..cooler for Halloween

After a chilly night tonight (-6 to -9C most places) the weather will get a lot nicer this week as warmer air moves in from the west. Sunny skies and light southwest winds will boost temperatures to normal highs of +7C on Tuesday, then look for double digit highs of 10-13c for Wednesday and Thursday with sunshine and breezy conditions. Unfortunately a cold front will drop through southern MB late Thursday ushering a cooler airmass just in time for Halloween Friday. The good news is that it should be clear and dry for Halloween and winds should be dropping off by evening, with temperatures expected to be in the -2 to -5C range for Halloween evening. 

Taste of winter on tap for Sunday

A strong cold front will push across southern MB late Saturday driving in the coldest airmass of the season so far Saturday night into Sunday across the area. The cold air will be ushered in by strong northwest winds gusting to 70 km/h, with locally higher gusts off the lakes.  Temperatures on Sunday will struggle to reach +3 or 4 degrees, and those gusty northwest winds will make it feel 5 to 10 degrees colder. Most areas in southern MB will likely wake up to see some snowflurries Sunday morning, but localities southeast of Lakes Manitoba and Winnipeg may see heavier bands of lake effect snow Saturday night into Sunday as those cold northwest winds sweep over the open lake waters.  Lake water - 850mb temperature differentials will be approaching 20C by Sunday morning, which is favourable for narrow bands of heavy lake effect snow. Note also that lake levels are running a little higher than normal right now, so northwest gales of 35 to 45 knots over the lakes may produce some shoreline erosion on the eastern shores of Lake Winnipeg and Lake Manitoba. Fortunately it appears this arctic blast will be short lived as lighter winds and moderating temperature are forecast for Monday and Tuesday.  

Nice week ahead.. Major cool down next week?

It should be a fairly nice week ahead across southern MB with generally near normal temperatures much of the week. There will be a band of rain moving across the Red River valley Tuesday night into Wednesday morning (perhaps 5 mm or so), but the rest of the week looks dry and seasonably mild with highs in the 10-13C by Friday or Saturday.  Unfortunately long range models are showing a significant outbreak of cold weather by Sunday the 26th which will likely result in below normal temperatures for the last week of October. In fact, if the models are right, the airmass will be cold enough for the first snowflurries of the year across much of southern MB, with the potential for snowsqualls off the MB lakes.  So be prepared for a chilly Halloween (yet again!), along with the possibility of some of the white stuff around.