tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post4759916735746764693..comments2024-02-25T19:29:38.176-06:00Comments on Rob's Blog: Major warm-up expected across Prairies, much of North America next week..Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger45125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-52321808124402418832014-12-17T20:20:54.149-06:002014-12-17T20:20:54.149-06:00Yes, WU would be using the GFS for their long rang...Yes, WU would be using the GFS for their long range forecasts. I think they're trying to show periods of snow developing with that hangback through while the main storm bombs out over Ontario by Christmas Eve. The models seem to be having a tough time resolving the transfer of energy from the midwest system to the Ontario bomb, which would explain the flip flopping and uncertainty with the snowfall forecasts for next week. But at this time, it looks like we should be seeing some snow Monday night into Christmas Eve, perhaps 5 cm over the period, before winds and colder temps arrive by Christmas day as the Ontario bomb takes over. But again.. lots of uncertainty still based on how these systems track and when that Ontario system bombs out.robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-89101096618642164722014-12-17T15:50:53.870-06:002014-12-17T15:50:53.870-06:00Rob, just looking at the latest WU forecast & ...Rob, just looking at the latest WU forecast & they are now showing measurable snow from Mon night-Wed, is that the GFS/GLB latest model run or still a lot of uncertainty with guidance on this storm before arctic air arrives?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-45759729997468051882014-12-17T15:33:00.617-06:002014-12-17T15:33:00.617-06:00Yes, latest guidance trending lower with snowfall ...Yes, latest guidance trending lower with snowfall amounts for Monday -Tuesday system as they start to agree with taking main storm system across Minnesota and Wisconsin with weaker trough back into Manitoba. Still expecting some minor snow here.. but not a lot at this point. Then it looks like we'll be getting colder again for Christmas into the end of December as massive storm storm system bombs over Ontario around Christmas Day (both GFS and Euro showing 961 mb low over central Ontario!), dragging colder Arctic air into Prairies.robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-15919122482154824332014-12-17T13:59:32.375-06:002014-12-17T13:59:32.375-06:00Hello Rob,
I see the WN has now scaled back the f...Hello Rob,<br /><br />I see the WN has now scaled back the forecast for Monday from 5 cm to 1 cm. Sounds like another miss for the Peg.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-77870730845300579832014-12-17T09:10:49.580-06:002014-12-17T09:10:49.580-06:00Whats it looking like now?Whats it looking like now?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-14183385307176330802014-12-16T15:58:23.822-06:002014-12-16T15:58:23.822-06:00If it stayed like this the rest of the winter (-10...If it stayed like this the rest of the winter (-10/-20), I'd be happy. Going back to -30 weather.. not so much. I'm just happy we're getting through most of December fairly easily. That's one less month of brutal cold to contend with. Although I know there's still a long way to go.. and I'm not expecting us to completely dodge brutal cold spells this winter. Hopefully they're more transitory this year than last winter..robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-83732441352476102762014-12-16T15:22:08.841-06:002014-12-16T15:22:08.841-06:00whether we get snow or not early next week, it doe...whether we get snow or not early next week, it does appear arctic air returns to close out the year. Rob are you still looking forward to that Colder weather? lolAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-62536273405842478252014-12-16T15:08:29.960-06:002014-12-16T15:08:29.960-06:00Just as I post that, the Euro has come in today a ...Just as I post that, the Euro has come in today a bit stronger on the system for next Monday-Tuesday with potential for 5-10 cm of snow for Winnipeg. But GFS and GLB now show a split type storm system with less snow over Winnipeg. As you can see, still a lot of uncertainty with that storm system with poor model agreement so far, but certainly something to monitor over the next few days. robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-65212330230333402952014-12-16T10:46:45.646-06:002014-12-16T10:46:45.646-06:00Thanks Rob.Thanks Rob.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-32936114331250443172014-12-16T10:06:23.016-06:002014-12-16T10:06:23.016-06:00Those forecasts are likely based on the GFS and GL...Those forecasts are likely based on the GFS and GLB models which show a system tracking through central Manitoba Monday and intensifying over NW Ontario Tuesday, possibly bringing some accumulating snow to Winnipeg and southern MB in that Dec 22-23rd time period. Euro model is weaker on this system with less snow.. Overall, I wouldn't get my hopes up too much at this point. Storm track doesn't look optimal for a good snow event for southern MB, and Euro is not too excited yet. We're certainly due for a good snowfall, as we've only had one snow event with more than 5 cm so far this season in Winnipeg (9 cm on Nov 28-29) but it's possible we're in a developing El-Nino pattern that generally favours less snow for us as systems bypass the southern Prairies. Whether this is a short term thing, or will last the entire winter is impossible to say at this point. But it seems to be that way so far.. robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-17646487675831122782014-12-16T09:45:59.257-06:002014-12-16T09:45:59.257-06:00Hi Rob,
Snow storm next week? Accu and WN showing...Hi Rob,<br /><br />Snow storm next week? Accu and WN showing Monday. Snowy Christmas!!!<br />I now its early but does this look promising?<br /><br /><br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-70008839058616153402014-12-14T22:37:32.551-06:002014-12-14T22:37:32.551-06:00No I'm with you JJ. I will take the mild even...No I'm with you JJ. I will take the mild even if it costs the sunshine.Darylnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-65950934013801898792014-12-14T11:33:42.374-06:002014-12-14T11:33:42.374-06:00Thanks for the correction JJ.. Yes, I was looking ...Thanks for the correction JJ.. Yes, I was looking at the 11th..robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-57537661640939469952014-12-14T10:26:45.910-06:002014-12-14T10:26:45.910-06:00Maybe I'm one of few, but I'll take cloudy...Maybe I'm one of few, but I'll take cloudy and mild for the entire winter than sunny and cold! Cloudiness doesn't actually bother me as long as it's warm :)<br /><br />By the way, yesterday's old record was in 2002 not 1894 (I think you saw that -2.8°C in 1894 record for Dec 11).jjcwpghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03353008394397372445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-44125820109284995162014-12-13T22:05:32.608-06:002014-12-13T22:05:32.608-06:00With a low of -1.1C today (Dec 13th), Winnipeg wil...With a low of -1.1C today (Dec 13th), Winnipeg will set another record high minimum temperature. Prev record hi min for Dec 13th was -2.8C in 1894. robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-31244578864431727482014-12-13T15:05:24.544-06:002014-12-13T15:05:24.544-06:00Can't wait for a wind shift. This persistent s...Can't wait for a wind shift. This persistent stratus and fog along with the sloppy mess on the streets is getting tiresome and depressing. Never thought I'd be looking forward to colder weather! Hurry up cold front! robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-88924843307604507732014-12-13T06:27:01.227-06:002014-12-13T06:27:01.227-06:00Well, record high temperatures may be elusive beca...Well, record high temperatures may be elusive because of this stratus deck; however, Winnipeg did set a new daily high minimum temperature yesterday of -0.5 C. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-68285098547892596682014-12-12T14:33:52.199-06:002014-12-12T14:33:52.199-06:00Our stratus cloud edge is literally just half an h...Our stratus cloud edge is literally just half an hour west of the city. Nice and sunny in places like Elie, Carman, Portage, Morden, etc.. Low cloud has also cleared over Sprague and Whiteshell regions to our east, leaving a sliver of low cloud up the Red River valley. Overall, stratus deck appears to be eroding somewhat, so hopefully we get some breaks tomorrow. But with nighttime coming and winds dropping off with melting temperatures over a chilly snowpack, that will likely only reinforce stratus deck tonight along with areas of dense fog developing. robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-11784287031504829182014-12-11T11:53:21.425-06:002014-12-11T11:53:21.425-06:00Thanks Rob!!Thanks Rob!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-42039861980431446842014-12-11T11:37:51.039-06:002014-12-11T11:37:51.039-06:00Totally agree, well done thanks again for the info...Totally agree, well done thanks again for the info Rob!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-11666039543479209732014-12-11T11:30:32.022-06:002014-12-11T11:30:32.022-06:00Anon.. Various weather forecast services use data ...Anon.. Various weather forecast services use data from different models and temperature algorithms to come up with their own values. In the case of Wx Underground, AccuWeather, Weather Channel, etc, they would likely use data from American models like the NAM and GFS for their forecasts, which could differ quite a bit from Canadian models (which drive EC forecasts). TWN seems to have the flexibility to use any model guidance they want depending on the situation. <br /><br />Ideally though, if you're going to automate forecast production, using ensemble model guidance from a variety of models or model runs would be the best way to go (less extremes and flip flopping, more conservative forecasts) robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-39159537782940123742014-12-11T10:57:42.265-06:002014-12-11T10:57:42.265-06:00well explained Rob thanks, I never pay attention t...well explained Rob thanks, I never pay attention to EC forecasts, WN by the way is no better, unfortunately though these for the most part are the only 2 forecasts that get publisized all over the news/radio/tv everyday in the city. How are the forecasts from others like underground or weather.com come from output as well? Those forecasts all along had showed highs zero-2 range for this period going back a few days.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-47923338880380611282014-12-11T10:52:48.345-06:002014-12-11T10:52:48.345-06:00Thankyou for your insight and great explanation ! ...Thankyou for your insight and great explanation ! I appreciate your weather discussions and forecasts. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-67891922415470254652014-12-11T10:38:34.454-06:002014-12-11T10:38:34.454-06:00JJ.. That forecast high of +10C is a MOS-adjusted ...JJ.. That forecast high of +10C is a MOS-adjusted forecast that comes straight from model output. Basically, that automated forecast looks at model surface temperatures, then adjusts it based on several additional temperature fields and statistical analysis, including temperatures at 925 mb. In Saturday's case, it sees very warm temperatures at 925 mb and adjusts the model surface temperature higher since it assumes some of that warmer air aloft will mix down. Generally, this results in more accurate high temperature forecasts than using straight model surface temperatures.. but in this case, it results in overforecasting the high since there won't be any mixing from aloft. <br /><br />A human forecaster would be able to recognize this questionable adjustment and remove it, leading to a better temperature forecast (of say zero or +2C similar to what most forecasts are saying for Saturday) However, Day 3-7 forecasts from EC are automated, and are output "as is" straight from the model with no input from human forecasters. That's why you'll often see a major change in the forecast when it goes from Day 3 (computer automated) to day 2 (human adjusted) In that case, you'll likely see that sunny high of +10C for Saturday change to more reasonable temperatures with tomorrow's forecast. robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-198754070479519972014-12-11T09:18:53.935-06:002014-12-11T09:18:53.935-06:00I'm not sure where that 10°C is coming from in...I'm not sure where that 10°C is coming from in the first place? Not even the GEM seems to be giving something that high. Do you know where it's coming from Rob?jjcwpghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03353008394397372445noreply@blogger.com