tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post4372969800219373790..comments2024-02-25T19:29:38.176-06:00Comments on Rob's Blog: Winter Storm Warning posted for southern MBUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger52125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-38854396611562590192010-01-24T22:22:38.986-06:002010-01-24T22:22:38.986-06:00to the person who asked about GF and Fargo precip ...to the person who asked about GF and Fargo precip I will have to get back to you on that....not sureDan - GFnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-56717652176667103162010-01-24T20:09:56.344-06:002010-01-24T20:09:56.344-06:00Lucky you.. go Vikes!Lucky you.. go Vikes!robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-64213515528470041062010-01-24T16:12:31.293-06:002010-01-24T16:12:31.293-06:00Missing all your fun...down south and its hot.Came...Missing all your fun...down south and its hot.Came in to catch the Vikes Game<br /><br /><b>Dan GF</b> is that a record to date for pcpn GFks and FgoAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-23176320914295001742010-01-24T16:12:22.106-06:002010-01-24T16:12:22.106-06:00Missing all your fun...down south and its hot.Came...Missing all your fun...down south and its hot.Came in to catch the Vikes Game<br /><br /><b>Dan GF</b> is that a record to date for pcpn GFks and FgoAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-15443083618388113702010-01-24T11:55:33.243-06:002010-01-24T11:55:33.243-06:00Blizzard warning issued for all of the Manitoba La...Blizzard warning issued for all of the Manitoba Lakes!daniel Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-42966977806335645372010-01-24T11:53:22.967-06:002010-01-24T11:53:22.967-06:00Yep, the cooldown is starting.. temperatures are a...Yep, the cooldown is starting.. temperatures are already down to -4C just northwest of Winnipeg so our temperature will continue to drop below freezing through the afternoon into the evening. Things will be icing up as all that standing water and slush start to freeze over, especially by evening as the wind starts picking up. Careful on the roads, especially outside the city..robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-47417360632476966532010-01-24T11:45:39.828-06:002010-01-24T11:45:39.828-06:00Still hasn't started dropping here in St-Vital...Still hasn't started dropping here in St-Vital though, my thermometer still indicates +1°C currently. Some snow grains/drizzle coming down.Jewelsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-79082630212211551842010-01-24T10:37:28.581-06:002010-01-24T10:37:28.581-06:00Its 10:30am on Sunday and the cold air is beginnin...Its 10:30am on Sunday and the cold air is beginning to move in. The temp has dropped 1.2C in the last 20 minutes and the winds are just starting to pick up. Now would be a good time to get the slush out of the driveway...before it becomes a block of ice. Tomorrow looks interesting; I walk to work (due north). Tomorrow morning could be a rather grim tromp to the School of Met.Dan Silver Heightshttp://www.weatherlink.com/user/wxdan/index.php?view=summary&headers=1noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-2142559341053684592010-01-24T10:30:25.627-06:002010-01-24T10:30:25.627-06:00FYI liquid equiv pcpn amounts in the RRV were mo...FYI liquid equiv pcpn amounts in the RRV were mostly int he 0.75 to 1.20 inch range...with heaveist liquid amounts around Fargo. Snow depths mostly range around 15 inches...but range from 10 to 19 inches. <br /><br />We are already preparing our Flood fight 2010 shirts the southern red river basin looks to be under the gun the worst.Dan - GFnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-6194660531202506322010-01-24T10:29:16.712-06:002010-01-24T10:29:16.712-06:00Rob!
Blizzard conditions have formed in areas lik...Rob!<br /><br />Blizzard conditions have formed in areas like Regina!<br />With a little falling snow and the winds are 70 km/h visibility is down to 0.6 km!<br /><br />That would indicate that Winnipeg and RRV could be in the same boat tomorrow ASSUMING that we get that falling snow at the time of the strong winds!daniel Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-73964597763367992232010-01-24T10:17:49.759-06:002010-01-24T10:17:49.759-06:00Checking the radar just minutes ago
I noticed that...Checking the radar just minutes ago<br />I noticed that an area of snow has just formed out of nowhere!!<br /><br />Maybe we will get some more snow today!daniel Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-26102462977059608802010-01-24T09:55:23.932-06:002010-01-24T09:55:23.932-06:00Looks like the cold air will be back with us for a...Looks like the cold air will be back with us for a while....as pattern shifts back to large upper low over hudson bay region and cold highs dropping southeast from NW canada. Not extreme cold by any means but no more of this slop...which to me is a good thing.Dan - GFnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-16615944350162581372010-01-24T09:26:23.973-06:002010-01-24T09:26:23.973-06:00Picked up another 3 cm last night in Charleswood, ...Picked up another 3 cm last night in Charleswood, along with some drizzle. Storm total 13 cm so far, although actual snowdepth is only about 10 cm due to melting and compaction. Reminds me of snowstorms from my southern Ontario days. <br /><br />Large dry slot has effectively ended precipitation for us for today. Now we wait for the cold air and any wrap around snow tonight into Monday. As noted, blowing snow and visibility issues will be contingent on receiving new dry fluffy snow. Best chance of new snow is overnight through Monday morning with a couple cm possible in Winnipeg/RRV which would make for difficult travel conditions for the morning commute..robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-49577777784959547102010-01-24T01:17:44.508-06:002010-01-24T01:17:44.508-06:00I can chime in on the warning (for reasons I won&#...I can chime in on the warning (for reasons I won't mention but I bet you can guess). Heehee.<br /><br />The north perimeter was mentioned specifically because it looks like there's going to be about 2 to 4 cm of new snow in the cooler air in the wraparound, and that will be followed by north winds of 50g70 throughout the valley, per latest guidance. Winnipeg, being a large city, will be for the most part spared blizzard conditions, but anyplace in the city (such as the north perimeter) that's exposed to a long fetch of nothingness (relatively speaking) to its north could see blizzard conditions. I wouldn't be surprised to see the RRV planted in a blizzard warning by this time tomorrow.<br /><br />And just a clarification, QPF = quantitative precipitation forecast. If you're talking about amounts that have already fallen, you're talking about QPE (quantitative precipitation estimates), if anything with an acronym.Dave "storm structure" Carlsenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11682260481031347181noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-68466199126690831452010-01-23T22:50:12.698-06:002010-01-23T22:50:12.698-06:00daniel..
We'd have to get fresh snow Sunday ...daniel.. <br /><br />We'd have to get fresh snow Sunday night and Monday to get poor visibilities in the city. Without new fluffy snow, there won't be any blowing snow in the RRV due to the wet snowpack we have now (which will freeze up by Monday morning)<br /><br />So the question becomes.. will we see new snow Sunday night and Monday? As Daniel and Scott have alluded to, it all depends on how far west the wrap-around snow from the Wisconsin storm gets to us. Right now, model consensus is that the bulk of the new snow will be east of Winnipeg and the RRV, with poor vsbys in snow and blowing snow mainly east of the city. If that area of snow edges further west, then it could be pretty bad for the RRV. With a track moving towards Thunder Bay, my bet would be most of the new snow will stay east of Winnipeg..robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-55236628171283661302010-01-23T21:52:11.437-06:002010-01-23T21:52:11.437-06:00Rob!
If you read Environment Canada's warning...Rob!<br /><br />If you read Environment Canada's warning they state that Sunday night into Monday could have very low visibility in snow and blowing snow<br />INCLUDING THE CITY OF WINNIPEG!!<br /><br />You agree that conditions could be that bad in the city???daniel Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-34428599588862017542010-01-23T21:40:57.745-06:002010-01-23T21:40:57.745-06:00NAM shows deformation zone setting up in eastern M...NAM shows deformation zone setting up in eastern Manitoba on Monday, bringing an additional 10cm to the region. It shows an additional 5 to 10cm for Winnipeg on Monday. Will need to watch 00Z GFS to see if this is confirmed.Scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10378918135776009197noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-15006243828397557312010-01-23T20:12:45.630-06:002010-01-23T20:12:45.630-06:00Models finally starting to better resolve evolutio...Models finally starting to better resolve evolution of this complex system. I just never bought into placement/strength of deformation zone on GFS given the surface pressure pattern it was generating (Missouri/Illinois low). Model as often seems to happens in these cases struggled with the transfer and consolidation of energy to southern system.<br /><br />With SE flow continuing for some time and evaporative cooling effects abating.. I wouldn't be surprised if we actually reach our high temp this evening. Wet snow acts much like rain in that liquid water percolates thru the snowpack beneath efficiently distributing heat and causing rapid melting. Mist and fog condensing on the snow release latent heat which further increases temp/melting of snowpack. Depending on when we eventually drop below freezing, we could be looking at less snow than when we started.<br /><br />Attention then turns to the true Colorado low which looks to track up thru Illinois and Wisconsin. Very impressive LLJ/warm air advection tonite over lower Midwest and Ohio Valley. Precip surges north into NW Ontario by midday tomorrow and deformation zone will try to back into Manitoba.. question is how far west will it get. Will have to see model trends on track of low on next runs. <br /><br />This low will be absorbed by arctic vortex which drops straight<br />south out of Baffin Island heralding the transition to a much colder pattern like Rob had mentioned earlier.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00949425441824069047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-77924569396120970072010-01-23T19:44:34.815-06:002010-01-23T19:44:34.815-06:00My apologies, I meant to say the 18Z GFS in my las...My apologies, I meant to say the 18Z GFS in my last post. The NAM wasn't quite that accurate.Scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10378918135776009197noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-84207668774201548342010-01-23T19:37:16.648-06:002010-01-23T19:37:16.648-06:00Here are some numbers for you..
Today's preci...Here are some numbers for you..<br /><br />Today's precipitation in Steinbach:<br />Snowfall (accumulated est.): 5cm<br />Snowfall (melted est.): 4cm<br />Ice pellets, rain, fzr: 4.5mm<br /><b>Total QPF: 13.7mm</b><br /><br />Water content of snowpack: 33mm<br /><br />The water content of the snowpack has doubled with this storm. When I took a snow core last week, the water content was around 16mm. More snowfall tomorrow will likely mean the water content will approach 40mm.<br /><br />Perhaps most interesting of all is the model performance. Yesterday's 18Z NAM predicted 13.69mm of QPF for Steinabch today. The actual QPF was 13.7mm! Amazing model accuracy from the NAM. So based on that accuracy level, what was the 18Z NAM predicting for the rest of the weekend? <br /><br />According to the 18Z run, Steinbach can expect another 12mm of QPF tomorrow afternoon into Monday morning. This should equate to 10 to 15cm of snow. Since the NAM indicates colder temperatures moving in at this time, I would expect most of that snowfall to stick.Scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10378918135776009197noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-781784758629134582010-01-23T16:45:40.579-06:002010-01-23T16:45:40.579-06:00If this slush freezes up on Sunday night, then we ...If this slush freezes up on Sunday night, then we will need some light snow on Monday morning to produce blizzard conditions. As we know from past experience, it only takes a few centimeters of snow to produce a blizzard if the wind is strong enough. I suspect that if we get 2 to 4cm on Sunday night and Monday morning, that will be enough to produce a blizzard. <br /><br />Still no new accumulations here. Snow is melting on contact, so it is impossible to measure. I suspect that if it was cold enough to accumulate, we would have about 10cm of new snow today.Scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10378918135776009197noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-39694259756100850182010-01-23T16:44:09.504-06:002010-01-23T16:44:09.504-06:00Thanks RobThanks RobDarylnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-70098047907946357562010-01-23T16:40:05.797-06:002010-01-23T16:40:05.797-06:00Daryl..
Looks like the second storm is carrying s...Daryl..<br /><br />Looks like the second storm is carrying snow further east, while snow on the backside will not be as heavy as first thought. This will make the second wave less intense than originally expected. However, the strong cold winds Monday will pose a problem even if there's light snow falling..robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-77928359517003672392010-01-23T16:34:59.720-06:002010-01-23T16:34:59.720-06:00With a low of only -0.1C today, Winnipeg airport s...With a low of only -0.1C today, Winnipeg airport set a new record for warmest minimum for Jan 23rd. (kind of like a record warm night as opposed to a record warm day) Previous record high minimum for today was -5.5C in 1977. <br /><br />As far as I know, there have been only 2 other minimum temperatures in Winnipeg since 1872 that were milder than -0.1C, namely +1.1C on Jan 12 1928, and 0.0C on Jan 14 1894. Third warmest January low in 138 years.. impressive!robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-76181115295890696402010-01-23T16:34:58.220-06:002010-01-23T16:34:58.220-06:00Did the second storm fizzle out.Did the second storm fizzle out.Darylnoreply@blogger.com