tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post3588404429019947680..comments2024-02-25T19:29:38.176-06:00Comments on Rob's Blog: Cold start to the week with a milder finish. No more snow for awhile..Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger48125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-54639057660900672202012-11-18T11:35:13.161-06:002012-11-18T11:35:13.161-06:00My snowdepth is down to 12 cm as of this morning, ...My snowdepth is down to 12 cm as of this morning, and looks pretty solid. I agree that going down to 1 cm by Wednesday is unlikely, without some rain and consistently above freezing temperatures day and night. Perhaps 5-7 cm snowdepth by Wednesday is more realistic. robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-41139749978414984592012-11-18T10:51:26.264-06:002012-11-18T10:51:26.264-06:00NAM shows only 1cm of snow left on the ground by W...NAM shows only 1cm of snow left on the ground by Wed afternoon. Seems a little extreme.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-72023417910033528132012-11-17T22:17:57.561-06:002012-11-17T22:17:57.561-06:00Dense fog has developed at the airport this evenin...Dense fog has developed at the airport this evening with vsby down to 1/4 mile as of 10 pm.. Looks pretty localized as city webcams show good vsby elsewhere across the city currently. robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-46627609281849515752012-11-17T16:11:39.959-06:002012-11-17T16:11:39.959-06:00PS..
One wildcard will be potenital for fog form...PS.. <br /><br />One wildcard will be potenital for fog formation overnite.. which would then advect northwards tomorrow morning. Given the SE flow however, best chance for getting fogged in tomorrow will be the western RRV, with deeper snow pack and up-slope trajectory.<br /><br />DanielAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-90944007578546884672012-11-17T16:02:39.076-06:002012-11-17T16:02:39.076-06:00Weak inverted trough came thru early this morning,...Weak inverted trough came thru early this morning, associated with a disturbance moving into the northern plains states. Switched our flow to the NW off of the deeper snow pack, and caused temps to crater at YWG. Inversion out there never really broke down today, whereas in most other areas it did (as noted). Again goes to show how unrepresentative that station can be sometimes.<br /><br />Models having some difficulty resolving the surface pressure pattern around the trough. This feature will wash out at some point, and broad SE flow takes over again by tomorrow. A lot of variability tonite for lows, with temperatures plunging in some spots with light and variable winds until the return flow takes over. <br /><br />With that SE wind trajectory tomorrow, and 925 hPa temps progged at 8-10 C over southern Manitoba by afternoon.. we could get rather warm and really diminish our dwindling snow pack. Guidance is variable: NAM, RGEM, GGEM are just barley above freezing for a high, whereas SCRIBE (both regional and global) gives highs of 4/5 C. I think given the set-up tomorrow some of the higher guidance may end up working out.. especially in the city and areas just to our SE (where even 6-7 C may not be out of the question).<br /><br />Will also have to watch temps overnite Sunday.. with some guidance suggesting temps staying over zero the entire night.<br /><br />DanielAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-9274615267340671182012-11-17T15:24:24.224-06:002012-11-17T15:24:24.224-06:00Wow, temps dropping quickly now across much of the...Wow, temps dropping quickly now across much of the city...now -2.3C at my place in Windsor Park at 3:20PM, -1.5C at the forks and -2.5C at Rob's Obs. So basically it was 0C to +1C pretty much across the city today except for the the Airport's reading of -5C. very strange indeed but it sure felt more like that +1C earlier today rather than -5C that's for sure.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-42822573638394738712012-11-17T15:10:50.623-06:002012-11-17T15:10:50.623-06:00I see temps dropped a little at the airport...now ...I see temps dropped a little at the airport...now -5.3C at 3PM. Also dropped a bit at my place here in Windsor park as well..now - 0.8C at 3PM. I've also noticed a drop at Rob's place as well...from 0.5C at 2PM to now -1.9C at 3PM.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-63769166327218183222012-11-17T14:19:25.234-06:002012-11-17T14:19:25.234-06:00Yeah, that is sure strange... - 4.8C at the airpor...Yeah, that is sure strange... - 4.8C at the airport now as of 2 PM and +1.3C at the forks....+1.1C here at my place in Windsor Park and pretty much 0C or +1C everywhere across town as well and it sure feels very pleasant outside today....light winds and some filtered sunshine. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-13805828600147240592012-11-17T11:47:22.373-06:002012-11-17T11:47:22.373-06:00Must be a dome of cold air sitting over the airpor...Must be a dome of cold air sitting over the airport... All the way up to +1°C in southern parts of city. Similar between -2 and 0 in most parts.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-57115031416516832672012-11-16T15:35:45.552-06:002012-11-16T15:35:45.552-06:00Rob and others...
Yes long range always a tough c...Rob and others...<br /><br />Yes long range always a tough challenge...look at last year even with a dominate La Nina strong blocking over the arctic and elsewhere gave us the mild winter. <br /><br />Our local long range expert gave us an office update today and said the latest CFS and other CPC guidance is indicating this mild stretch will last into late Dec then it will turn stormy around the holidays and then predominately colder than normal Jan-Feb. We will see. Dan - NWS GFnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-69260579833764767892012-11-16T12:07:43.870-06:002012-11-16T12:07:43.870-06:00Thanks for the update Dan.. I don't envy anyon...Thanks for the update Dan.. I don't envy anyone trying to predict what winter will be like this year. Variable will be a pretty safe bet I think! robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-40522266131408178102012-11-16T12:05:53.022-06:002012-11-16T12:05:53.022-06:00Anonymous..
Yes, the decrease in our snowpack is ...Anonymous..<br /><br />Yes, the decrease in our snowpack is mainly due to compacting/settling. There's likely been some reduction due to sunshine and wind, but mainly it's just been the settling of the snow we received from the weekend storm. <br /><br />Depending on the water content of the snow, snowpack can go down quite a bit even with temperatures below freezing. A dry and fluffy snow can compact rapidly, while a heavy dense snow will take longer to settle (as long as it's below freezing). Strong winds will pack the snow down and harden it.. almost like concrete if it's cold and windy enough. <br /><br />The fastest way to reduce snowpack is with above freezing temperatures both day and night, especially if accompanied by above freezing dewpoints and/or rain or drizzle. robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-21490361861395086552012-11-16T10:18:59.490-06:002012-11-16T10:18:59.490-06:00Updated NWS CPC outlook for the DJF period issued ...Updated NWS CPC outlook for the DJF period issued Nov 15th now has ND/MN in below average temps for the winter period. Demise of the El-Nino and other factors the reason. <br /><br />http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/fgf/Winter2013/Nov_15_DJF_Outlook.jpg<br /><br />Here is a very detailed outlook and explanation issued by our office...<br /><br />http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=fgf&storyid=89389&source=0Dna - NWS GFnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-57853676661605030122012-11-16T10:10:10.451-06:002012-11-16T10:10:10.451-06:00That 50k wind is just awful today. Hopefully the w...That 50k wind is just awful today. Hopefully the winds drop off.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-33260834593597624022012-11-16T09:39:13.446-06:002012-11-16T09:39:13.446-06:00With such warm temperatures aloft (above 0C), and ...With such warm temperatures aloft (above 0C), and 925 mb - 850mb winds at 70 to 90 km/h, I would expect above freezing temps the surface today, even with the snow. Shows how little I know apparently.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-42740472817359757712012-11-16T09:04:19.262-06:002012-11-16T09:04:19.262-06:00Rob has the snow depth in the city gone down due t...Rob has the snow depth in the city gone down due to the pack settling/compacting? That much couldn't have melted with the temperatures being below freezing.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-30157494251022485202012-11-15T23:35:22.261-06:002012-11-15T23:35:22.261-06:00I think above freezing temperatures are likely, ev...I think above freezing temperatures are likely, even with our snowpack. If we didn't have snow, we'd probably be looking at temperatures of +7 or +8C this weekend into next week... but our snowpack will shave a good 5C off those temps. Still nice though.. and still no new snow for awhile so our snowpack will continue to go down. robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-54740161289107824102012-11-15T19:52:38.172-06:002012-11-15T19:52:38.172-06:00Rob,
Do you think the temps over the weekend and ...Rob,<br /><br />Do you think the temps over the weekend and into next weekend will actually climb above zero as forecasted given the snowpack that still exists?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-29026044215749512402012-11-15T19:25:07.410-06:002012-11-15T19:25:07.410-06:00Jim did well. It made me miss the days of Stan Kub...Jim did well. It made me miss the days of Stan Kubicek on CKND - no nonsense, no quibbling about tenths of a degree, no bragging, just an enjoyable (and often humorous) forecast report. Garthnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-58212046548531489852012-11-15T18:44:31.346-06:002012-11-15T18:44:31.346-06:00LOL! Just saw Jim Slater of the Jets do the weathe...LOL! Just saw Jim Slater of the Jets do the weather on Winnipeg CTV news tonight! So that's what unemployed hockey players have to do to make some money!! :)robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-42513442260993005252012-11-15T18:41:12.378-06:002012-11-15T18:41:12.378-06:00Anonymous.. I assume you mean 33 CM, not inches. M...Anonymous.. I assume you mean 33 CM, not inches. Most places in Winnipeg measured between 20-25 cm (8-10") with the weekend storm. It's certainly possible that you measured 33 cm in your yard, as some areas may have drifted a bit, or there was blow off that accumulated more in a sheltered spot. robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-60830752962827865122012-11-15T16:55:48.202-06:002012-11-15T16:55:48.202-06:00Anon
I would suggest if you measured 33 inches or...Anon<br /><br />I would suggest if you measured 33 inches or prob cm's it would be either a snow drift or snow blowing off a roof and filling an area.Darylnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-73338897791153764022012-11-15T14:23:51.457-06:002012-11-15T14:23:51.457-06:00Hello Rob,
I am asking you a question for the fir...Hello Rob,<br /> I am asking you a question for the first time, but have been watching your blog for a while now.<br />I live in the Amber Trails end of town, and measured 33 inches of snow, is that possible, since most places reported in the 20's?<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-12710578464525359642012-11-15T14:10:24.084-06:002012-11-15T14:10:24.084-06:00Visible satellite imagery nicely shows extent of s...Visible satellite imagery nicely shows extent of snowpack across southern Prairies and far northern plains. Snow still pretty deep across southern SK and western MB from weekend storm with 25-40 cm snowdepths still being reported. Snowpack is in the 10-20 cm range over the RRV, more in the western RRV and YPG area, less in the east.. with snowdepths falling off sharply towards Lake of the Woods (only 1 cm snowdepth in Kenora) 15 cm snowdepth at my place this morning and 11 cm at XWG. <br /><br />Other than the far NW, Minnesota is nice and bare, so as Daniel noted, best bet for warming winds for us will be with a SE flow, rather than westerly wind which still goes over an expansive snowpack right to the Rockies. robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-77081994936893415942012-11-15T13:49:31.177-06:002012-11-15T13:49:31.177-06:00Dan..
I'll check with our monitoring guys and...Dan..<br /><br />I'll check with our monitoring guys and let you know..<br /><br />Rob robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.com