tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post3209137716898975720..comments2024-02-25T19:29:38.176-06:00Comments on Rob's Blog: Tranquil weather over the weekend.. then major storm possible over southern MB by middle of next week followed by Arctic blast..Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger29125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-46934965660318342112013-12-01T17:33:36.831-06:002013-12-01T17:33:36.831-06:00Rob, would you say tonight's 00Z runs will be ...Rob, would you say tonight's 00Z runs will be very telling one or way or another?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-46021942390294199632013-12-01T17:14:51.177-06:002013-12-01T17:14:51.177-06:00That's correct.. GFS now showing 17 cm for Win...That's correct.. GFS now showing 17 cm for Winnipeg Tue-Wed, while NAM cranks out 40 cm from late Monday into Wednesday. Still not ready to buy on to that unless we see some major flips from the other models.. Hopefully we get some consensus soon one way or the other. robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-61355878219402901092013-12-01T16:31:42.251-06:002013-12-01T16:31:42.251-06:00Well, 18Z GFS has trended towards Nam. It now show...Well, 18Z GFS has trended towards Nam. It now shows blizzard for Southern Manitoba Tues-Wed.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-11667027566664190202013-12-01T15:40:34.313-06:002013-12-01T15:40:34.313-06:00It should be noted that all our snowfalls thus far...It should be noted that all our snowfalls thus far have been bigger than expected, so I wouldn't rule out the chance of a bigger than expected snowfall once gain.<br /><br />We've had 3 clippers thus far than forecasted 2-5 CM for each one and all 3 we finished with more than 5 CM. Here's an example: last Wednesday's snowfall was forecasted to give 2-4 CM, was then later adjusted to 5 CM and we wind up with 10 CM. Either this is a fluke or for some reason the forecasted snowfall amounts are grossly underdone.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-10802815301563703322013-12-01T14:38:06.274-06:002013-12-01T14:38:06.274-06:0012Z Euro has dropped out of the race.. now showing...12Z Euro has dropped out of the race.. now showing only 5-6 cm for Winnipeg Tue-Wed. NAM is the only model now still predicting a significant storm for us. Will it stay the course, or will it cave? robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-21109294000947486382013-12-01T10:59:42.533-06:002013-12-01T10:59:42.533-06:00Model snowfall estimates for Winnipeg Tue-Wed as t...Model snowfall estimates for Winnipeg Tue-Wed as they stand right now.. (assuming 10:1 snow:liquid ratios)<br /><br />NAM ...... 30 cm<br />ECMWF .... 15 cm<br />NAEFS .... 7 cm (ensemble) <br />GGEM ..... 5 cm<br />GFS ...... 3 cm<br /><br />As you can see, still a wide discrepancy depending on track of system. robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-22549930387380352932013-12-01T10:45:16.135-06:002013-12-01T10:45:16.135-06:00Rob, Will Winnipeg see any snow tomorrow wether or...Rob, Will Winnipeg see any snow tomorrow wether or not we see any accumulation?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-17529874006687301602013-12-01T10:44:58.871-06:002013-12-01T10:44:58.871-06:00Winter storm watch has been issued across much of ...Winter storm watch has been issued across much of southern Saskatchewan for possible freezing rain tonight then snow and blowing snow Monday into Tuesday. robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-27776855978933852932013-12-01T10:36:53.192-06:002013-12-01T10:36:53.192-06:00Time for a snow poll! How much snowfall will Winni...Time for a snow poll! How much snowfall will Winnipeg get Tuesday through Wednesday? Vote on Rob's Obs blog poll! robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-7569942531570623282013-12-01T10:33:00.711-06:002013-12-01T10:33:00.711-06:00>> Anonymous said...Rob What do you predict ...>> Anonymous said...Rob What do you predict the total snowfall for the Brandon region will be the forecast keeps changing from lots of snow to no snow?<br /><br />I doubt Brandon will see no snow.. looks like first wave of snow moves in Monday, with another wave Tuesday into Wednesday. Still tough to say how much, perhaps 5-10 cm first wave, and another 5-15 cm second wave as a first guess. Looks like a prolonged event in any case Monday through Wednesday. robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-8775578258768276602013-12-01T10:29:37.748-06:002013-12-01T10:29:37.748-06:00>> Anonymous said... We always loose out to ...>> Anonymous said... We always loose out to North Dakota/Minnesota!! Doesn't seem to matter what type of storm! Why?? I've lost absolutely all hope that we'll ever get anything! <br /><br />Anonymous.. things still aren't clear on how this system will impact Winnipeg. NAM continues to indicate heavier snow across southern MB including Winnipeg, while everyone else is further south. I think NAM is too aggressive, but there's still a chance it may work out. Hope is still not lost if you're wanting some snow! :) robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-46601195811109584022013-12-01T10:00:09.775-06:002013-12-01T10:00:09.775-06:00Rob What do you predict the total snowfall for the...Rob What do you predict the total snowfall for the Brandon region will be the forecast keeps changing from lots of snow to no snow?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-71212223408407383092013-12-01T09:47:31.269-06:002013-12-01T09:47:31.269-06:00We always loose out to North Dakota/Minnesota!! Do...We always loose out to North Dakota/Minnesota!! Doesn't seem to matter what type of storm! Why?? I've lost absolutely all hope that we'll ever get anything! These darn models always tease us at first then just do their usual hum and haw and then track things away from us overall! Can't escape it even in winter! Winnipeg truly is a storm lovers worst nightmare. At least other places not too far away it seems if you miss this storm, you know you'll probably get one in a week or two. Here if you miss one you gotta wait another month or more to even see a potential. Bigger storms you have to wait years! I know you can't control weather but its not fair! >:(Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-1503585161210095462013-12-01T08:54:30.420-06:002013-12-01T08:54:30.420-06:00That "sunny" forecast for Tuesday for Wi...That "sunny" forecast for Tuesday for Winnipeg is wildly optimistic given that NAM, Euro, and ensembles bring about 5-10 cm of snow over Winnipeg Tuesday into Tuesday night. We'll see what today's runs say, but don't be surprised to see that Tuesday forecast change considerably from the current outlook (the drawbacks of automating the forecast based on a single model solution) robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-31055606090814674522013-12-01T08:38:21.332-06:002013-12-01T08:38:21.332-06:00Wouldn't be much of a surprise if we missed ou...Wouldn't be much of a surprise if we missed out. Big storms love to miss the Winnipeg area and has been the tradition for years now. Don't see why that would end now.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-46887717639750061702013-12-01T00:31:55.943-06:002013-12-01T00:31:55.943-06:00Tonight's models coming more in line that the ...Tonight's models coming more in line that the main energy with this week's storm will be tracking mainly to the south of Winnipeg/RRV Tuesday into Wednesday with main swath of heaviest snow from southern SK through ND into Minnesota. NAM is further north however and spreads significant snow (10-20 cm) across southern MB Tuesday including Winnipeg. NAM however is the odd man out on this solution and doesn't appear likely .. although as we've seen before, even the outliers can be right sometimes. At this point however, consensus appears to be building that worst of this system will be impacting areas mainly west, south and southeast of Winnipeg although we should see some snow out of it. Stay tuned as models are still trying to sort this complex system out.. robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-42200171798277440722013-11-30T19:42:18.325-06:002013-11-30T19:42:18.325-06:00Flip-flop. Now the Euro has only a few cm of snow ...Flip-flop. Now the Euro has only a few cm of snow for mid next week. Meanwhile the GEM-GLB has about 25 cm. The Ensemble is all over the place.<br /><br />Either way, it's going to turn cold later next week.<br /><br />-GarthSpotWxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17918306364431028283noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-91630031868746007212013-11-30T13:45:14.106-06:002013-11-30T13:45:14.106-06:00We should keep in mind though that the ECMWF is th...We should keep in mind though that the ECMWF is the same model that predicted (with relative accuracy) the path of Sandy last year from a good few days out.<br /><br />Definitely a system worth watching.Connornoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-54473713735315452642013-11-30T12:01:15.822-06:002013-11-30T12:01:15.822-06:00Anonymous... If the European model verifies, I wou...Anonymous... If the European model verifies, I would say that yes, blizzard conditions are likely across southern MB by Wednesday, especially the RRV. But there's so much uncertainty on the evolution of this system, that I would put the risk of blizzard conditions at about 30% right nowrobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-89896825866631209822013-11-30T10:19:29.299-06:002013-11-30T10:19:29.299-06:00Rob, is there potential for significant blizzard c...Rob, is there potential for significant blizzard conditions with that system next week?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-69093995659778000032013-11-30T10:01:10.925-06:002013-11-30T10:01:10.925-06:00Anonymous.. I totally agree. The term "flurri...Anonymous.. I totally agree. The term "flurries" underplays snowfall potential with a synoptic system. EC forecasts (Day 3 and beyond) automatically default to flurries when a POP is mentioned (e.g 30%, 60%, etc) no matter how intense the system. Another example of how better programming/algorithms are required if you're going to automate the forecast. robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-82890685301884502722013-11-30T09:35:46.485-06:002013-11-30T09:35:46.485-06:00It seems the term "flurries" is over-use...It seems the term "flurries" is over-used. To me it suggests minimal accumulation, yet TWN has POP 40% flurries for Wednesday, with 5-10cm accumulation. EC and CBC MB also say flurries for mid next week. People may be in for a surprise.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-89068002493100092982013-11-30T08:14:16.746-06:002013-11-30T08:14:16.746-06:00Winter storm watches and warnings out for a large ...Winter storm watches and warnings out for a large part of Alberta as storm system intensifies across western Canada Sunday. This system tracks into Montana Monday spreading snow into southern SK and SW Manitoba. Things get more uncertain after that as models continue to have difficulty resolving what happens to this system as it tracks over Dakotas Tuesday into Wednesday, which impacts forecast for Winnipeg/RRV. Some guidance (like latest GGEM now) suggest this system will continue to track across the northern/central plains with energy shifting to the south as upper trof digs over SW US. This brings less snow and wind across Winnipeg/RRV Tuesday into Wednesday, although we should see accumulating snow.. perhaps 5-10 cm. In contrast, ECWMF and latest GFS indicate Montana system will track across ND and intensify Tuesday into Wednesday bringing more snow (perhaps 15+ cm) and stronger winds to southern MB including Winnipeg/RRV with blowing and drifting snow issues. <br /><br />GFS and GGEM have been flip flopping on which scenario will develop, while ECMWF has been more consistent on stronger low solution. Bottom line.. still too early to say how this system will impact Winnipeg/RRV.. but looks like increasing chances for snow by Tuesday/Wednesday, followed by cold outbreak. Stay tuned..robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-51620113467610338762013-11-30T06:09:25.119-06:002013-11-30T06:09:25.119-06:00The weather Network is calling for a high of -27 a...The weather Network is calling for a high of -27 and low of -39 next Saturday. It is so cold that the temperature graph goes to the bottom edge of my screen on my TV...LOL. That cold seems unlikely but it gives you a indication how brutal this airmass is going to be later next week.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-13758036123661064712013-11-29T22:30:25.046-06:002013-11-29T22:30:25.046-06:00New GFS guidance this evening trending more toward...New GFS guidance this evening trending more towards Canadian GGEM solution with stronger AB clipper tracking through Montana and North Dakota Monday into northern Minnesota Tuesday. This impulse is forecast to be our main snowmaker later Monday into Tuesday, instead of a full blown Colorado low Wed-Thu. Still need some more model runs to see if there's more consensus on this scenario, so stay tuned. robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.com