tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post2072062837912829467..comments2024-02-25T19:29:38.176-06:00Comments on Rob's Blog: Developing storm system threatens showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday..Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger58125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-74852757038333416682010-06-18T08:45:30.242-05:002010-06-18T08:45:30.242-05:00The Iron Curtain myth like many has a thread of fa...The Iron Curtain myth like many has a thread of fact attached to it. My personal experience colors perceptions of events. <br /><br /> On hundreds of trips on both 59 and I-29/75 dozens of Funnel Clouds spotted approaching the Border several tornadoes reported very few in my experience crossed to the North of the Border...<br /><br />In Detroit Lakes for the multiple outbreak in the early 70's, in a Minneapolis campground for the 3 day outbreak in the mid 70's and in Mpls for last years August event. Several Fargo outbreaks have been spent in Hotel basements. I followed the Gull Lake Funnels from Inwood and met it at Petersfield (Golf Course) and watched the Pipestone/Elie outbreaks (on Robs Woodlands Link) travel west to east when a parrallel storm line just off lake Manitoba heading towards Wpg veered south to merge with the line from western MB at Elie. <br /><br />Note my MB "personal" up close experience has been MB Tornadoes with apologies to St. Malo and Vita Altona and others come from the West or the North and the US outbreaks seldom make it up here.Jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03903818436067284685noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-5411253088829287432010-06-17T23:31:06.942-05:002010-06-17T23:31:06.942-05:00Re anonymous:
"People.. just because storms ...Re anonymous:<br /><br />"People.. just because storms look severe on radar doesn't equate to these severe storms maintaining themselves moving northward especially moving into more stable, cooler airmass."<br /><br />Read my earlier comment.. there is a potential inertia involved in the weakening of convection. One also cannot discount the possibility of enough surface based instability *advecting* northwards to sustain severe convection for a short distance. Of course it would not be 100 km or even 10.. but how about 1 km or 500 m? There are several small towns right along the border. Can you really say with any certainty that a supercell will lose all organization exactly as it crosses the border... of course not.<br /><br />A massive outbreak of at least 20 tornadoes of EF3 or greater intensity was ongoing just across the border (thanks for the link Jim). One would have to be a fool to discount the possibility of severe weather north of the border out of hand. So in my mind a watch was certainly justified. The question of warnings is debatable and dependent on actual evidence that the cells were still severe as they crossed the border (again this is tricky).<br /><br />Re Scott:<br /><br />The potential for overnight convection and debris cloud was discussed several times on this thread... it is always an issue when assessing the next day's severe weather risk.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00949425441824069047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-44720541385953614452010-06-17T22:37:44.988-05:002010-06-17T22:37:44.988-05:00It is amazing how the 49th parallel acts as an iro...It is amazing how the 49th parallel acts as an iron barrier to thunderstorms. You can have a tornado producing storm in Hallock, MN, but the moment it crosses over to Tolstoi, the storm disintegrates.<br /><br />We'll need to be very mindful of being on the northern side of the warm front in the future. The models have already handled these events poorly twice this spring...back in late May and now in June. The NAM was advertising strong CAPE all the way to Winnipeg yesterday, but the models didn't account for overnight convection (again). Something to remember as we move farther into the season.Scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10378918135776009197noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-84831665000065776352010-06-17T22:27:17.896-05:002010-06-17T22:27:17.896-05:00Yeah, cells basically died as far as intensity as ...Yeah, cells basically died as far as intensity as they moved north across the border. So much for free trade. So Environment Canada was right in not cranking out warnings. People.. just because storms look severe on radar doesn't equate to these severe storms maintaining themselves moving northward especially moving into more stable, cooler airmass. So don't get over excited in wondering why warnings aren't issued. I would rather have them not cry wolf everytime there is a thunderstorm in the area. Save the watches and warnings for when the situation warrents. Cool, less unstable air ain't no severe weather producer.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-7984433456683057212010-06-17T22:09:37.200-05:002010-06-17T22:09:37.200-05:00Just a note on how lucky we were....as many as 20 ...Just a note on how lucky we were....as many as 20 ?? to at least EF3??<br /><br /><br /><br />PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT<br />NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND<br />907 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010<br /><br />...STORM DAMAGE SURVEY TEAMS PLANNED FOR FRIDAY JUNE 18...<br /><br />IN THE WAKE OF THIS AFTERNOONS DEVASTATING TORNADO OUTBREAK<br />ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN<br />MINNESOTA...THE GRAND FORKS NWS WILL BE DEPLOYING DAMAGE SURVEY<br />TEAMS TO BETTER ASCERTAIN THE SEQUENCE AND MAGNITUDE OF THIS<br />EVENT.<br /><br />ONE TEAM WILL VISIT THE HARDEST HIT AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL<br />MINNESOTA INCLUDING THE WADENA AREA. A SECOND TEAM WILL INSPECT<br />THE DAMAGES REPORTED IN THE FISHER...CROOKSTON AND MENTOR AREAS<br />OF NORTHWEST4 MINNESOTA. A THIRD TEAM WILL VISIT THE CENTRAL AND<br />NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING THE<br />MAYVILLE AND THOMPSON AREAS.<br /><br />AT THIS TIME THE EXACT EXTENT OF THE DAMAGE OR THE ENHANCED<br />FUJITA SCALE OF THE TORNADOES THAT OCCURRED IS UNKNOWN.<br />PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT SEVERAL OF THE TORNADOES<br />WERE AT LEAST EF3...POSSIBLY GREATER IN INTENSITY.<br /><br />ALSO...PRELIMINARY STORM DATA SUGGESTS THAT AS MANY AS 20<br />TORNADOES MAY HAVE OCCURRED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A<br />FINAL NUMBER WILL BE AVAILABLE WITHIN A FEW DAYS.Jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03903818436067284685noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-79412903938014791972010-06-17T21:20:36.757-05:002010-06-17T21:20:36.757-05:00Yep, a lot of potential that fizzled out over RRV ...Yep, a lot of potential that fizzled out over RRV and SE MB.. with minimal rainfall (thankfully) and precious little in severe thunderstorms. However, it wasn`t too far away.. with 60-80 mm of rain over Killarney-Minot area as well as other spots in North Dakota, as well as tornadic cells just south of the border. In the end, it was a non-event for Winnipeg (other than some brief downburts winds that occurred around the same time I witnessed an airliner abort a landing just as it was approaching YWG this afternoon)robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-62310006693395957852010-06-17T19:42:35.598-05:002010-06-17T19:42:35.598-05:00@ Daniel P
the syonptic winds were from the SE.. ...@ Daniel P<br /><br />the syonptic winds were from the SE.. the calm to west winds represent mesoscale effects from convection (outflow etc). Behind the trough our winds will switch to SW...<br /><br />Have to say that we were very fortunate here in Winnipeg to escape all modes of severe weather. Hard to believe with so much moisture and dynamics some places seem to have barely gotten 5-10 mm of rain. Will be very interesting to see map of radar estimated precip...Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00949425441824069047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-80721497370239378952010-06-17T19:42:09.889-05:002010-06-17T19:42:09.889-05:00I see Rob has his weather station back online toda...I see Rob has his weather station back online today!!!<br /><br />Welcome back!daniel Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-8120240107227302122010-06-17T19:33:04.727-05:002010-06-17T19:33:04.727-05:00pffffft. This sure wasn't anything worth waiti...pffffft. This sure wasn't anything worth waiting for!! =( <br />Looks like south end was forgotten today for thunderstorms.Maxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09511971659100579935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-41872037214753214982010-06-17T19:25:05.123-05:002010-06-17T19:25:05.123-05:00@Daniel (with the Blogger account)
True, as a stor...@Daniel (with the Blogger account)<br />True, as a storm's strength can vary until it is very apparent (typically after 10:00 PM or so) that the storms are losing strengh.Connorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16890729307808750701noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-90917178432087783322010-06-17T19:21:14.544-05:002010-06-17T19:21:14.544-05:00Take a look a Winnipeg's winds today!!!!!
Str...Take a look a Winnipeg's winds today!!!!!<br /><br />Strong from the southeast<br />then calm<br />then from the west<br />then the northeast<br />now back to the southeast!!!<br /><br />Can anyone explain what is going on??????daniel Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-72804174058500017812010-06-17T19:12:03.309-05:002010-06-17T19:12:03.309-05:00@Connor...
Do not go by the unacceptably low reso...@Connor...<br /><br />Do not go by the unacceptably low resolution Woodlands radar. Mayville radar show cells still capable of producing tornadoes and a tornado warning is even out for areas along Manitoba border.<br /><br />Remember that a watch is the potential for severe development. There is often some inertia in the weakening of these storms and unstable boundary layer air can advect northwards with these systems. Therefore at least a watch was warranted.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00949425441824069047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-57437607477621674672010-06-17T18:54:29.660-05:002010-06-17T18:54:29.660-05:00Ahhh there we go, finally the watch has been issue...Ahhh there we go, finally the watch has been issued. It's just too bad it takes so long... Often takes until the storms are actually already coming through to issue a watch!Maxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09511971659100579935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-57706618428971675212010-06-17T18:18:25.908-05:002010-06-17T18:18:25.908-05:00@Daniel
On the Grand Forks radar, the storms appea...@Daniel<br />On the Grand Forks radar, the storms appear to be weakening for the most part. On the Woodlands radar, the dBZ values aren't even at the 50s (which would be oranges and reds).Connorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16890729307808750701noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-6998520596106796922010-06-17T18:09:44.536-05:002010-06-17T18:09:44.536-05:00I am baffled as to why EC has not extended Tstorm ...I am baffled as to why EC has not extended Tstorm watch or issued warnings along intl in SE Manitoba. Cells have a history of producing multiple tornadoes and funnel clouds... along with hail and strong straight line winds. Leading edge of line will cross just east of Emerson at about 6:15. What is the delay?Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00949425441824069047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-49450353307350041492010-06-17T18:03:11.337-05:002010-06-17T18:03:11.337-05:00I'm a little surprised by EC not issuing Sever...I'm a little surprised by EC not issuing Severe thunderstorm watches at least along the international border (sw part of MB) since the storms coming up from the south are decently strong and even have tornado warnings on them in the US.Matthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12218729708560701279noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-44959557029826003852010-06-17T17:40:42.733-05:002010-06-17T17:40:42.733-05:00EC is going to have to extend severe Tstorm watch ...EC is going to have to extend severe Tstorm watch a bit further east and soon issue warnings. Leading tornadic cell will soon cross into Manitoba with several behind. I doubt they can weaken fast enough to prevent severe parameters from affecting Manitoba.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00949425441824069047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-78877169713929308522010-06-17T17:24:59.214-05:002010-06-17T17:24:59.214-05:00funnel cloud reports as far north as Oslo MN...funnel cloud reports as far north as Oslo MN...Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00949425441824069047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-56629348259436501892010-06-17T16:35:57.167-05:002010-06-17T16:35:57.167-05:00These and other reports are coming in every few mi...These and other reports are coming in every few minutes on <a href="http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=FGF&issuedby=FGF&product=LSR&format=CI&version=6&glossary=0" rel="nofollow">FGF Local Storm Report</a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT<br />NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND<br />409 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010<br /><br />..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...<br />..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....<br /> ..REMARKS..<br /><br />0405 PM TORNADO HOLMES 47.72N 97.30W<br />06/17/2010 GRAND FORKS ND FIRE DEPT/RESCUE<br /><br /> MULTIPLE VORTEX TORNADO<br /><br /><br /><br />0339 PM TORNADO 8 NNE FINLEY 47.62N 97.77W<br />06/17/2010 STEELE ND NWS EMPLOYEE<br /><br /> RELAYED BY OFF DUTY DODGE CITY NWS METEORLOGIST CHASING<br /> STORM.Jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03903818436067284685noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-13708757895164575312010-06-17T16:32:28.677-05:002010-06-17T16:32:28.677-05:00Severe thunderstorm watch issued for SW and south ...Severe thunderstorm watch issued for SW and south central Manitoba (excluding Winnipeg).Connorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16890729307808750701noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-19374682698188900422010-06-17T16:18:44.307-05:002010-06-17T16:18:44.307-05:00So far Winnipeg has been remarkably lucky in missi...So far Winnipeg has been remarkably lucky in missing all the storms... they have been diverting around the city in a bizarre fashion. it appears as though our luck is about to run out however with this next wave of elveated convection.<br /><br />We will get a breif (and I mean brief) taste of clearing and warm sector behind this current line. However, surface based convection has erupted along surface trough with at least 10 tornado warnings (!!!) in N Dakota/ NW Minnesota... unreal.<br /><br />Discrete cells should rapidly merge and produce another large area of heavy rain that will move up in a few hours. Strong straight line winds will also be a threat.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00949425441824069047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-15255105120510417492010-06-17T16:13:03.954-05:002010-06-17T16:13:03.954-05:00Severe storms are EXPLODING in north dakota!
A da...Severe storms are EXPLODING in north dakota!<br /><br />A dangerous situation is developing with numerous tornado warnings!!daniel Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-89875720228346968942010-06-17T16:07:35.408-05:002010-06-17T16:07:35.408-05:00Daniel, that line of 28C appeared at 1pm to be ju...Daniel, that line of 28C appeared at 1pm to be just south of Fargo thru Wapheton and Fergus. Cooled rapidly to the north.<br /><br />Fargo Airport is showing 48mm of rain. The only one greater is Morbridge at 54mm.Jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03903818436067284685noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-85601875241727532402010-06-17T16:02:40.124-05:002010-06-17T16:02:40.124-05:00If you can't Golf in this mild breeze and want...If you can't Golf in this mild breeze and want to catch both the US Open (Mike Weir is one off behind the leader) and follow the Weather, NBC channel 6 on MTS cable is updating regularly. Major situation expected momentarily in Fergus Falls..Detroit Lakes and Alexandria just SW of Fargo TWarnings in all 3. 1 Tornado on the ground now in Lee n Douglas CountyJimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03903818436067284685noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-88079545219550410882010-06-17T15:53:52.653-05:002010-06-17T15:53:52.653-05:00quite a few thunderstorms starting to erupt in Sou...quite a few thunderstorms starting to erupt in Southern Manitoba now!<br /><br />The high for today was originally <br />28 C yesterday....so ya quite the departure!!daniel Pnoreply@blogger.com