tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post1391875516385763529..comments2024-02-25T19:29:38.176-06:00Comments on Rob's Blog: Nice weekend.. heavy rain looms Monday for southern RRV/ND/MNUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger39125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-50346654110720910672010-01-13T08:54:58.812-06:002010-01-13T08:54:58.812-06:00[url=http://sapresodas.net/][img]http://vioperdosa...[url=http://sapresodas.net/][img]http://vioperdosas.net/img-add/euro2.jpg[/img][/url]<br />[b]cheap microsoft office suite, [url=http://sapresodas.net/]buy photoshop filters[/url]<br />[url=http://sapresodas.net/]buy computer softwares[/url] academic & collegiate software purchase business software<br />nero 6.6 crack [url=http://sapresodas.net/]rm educational software inc[/url] legal to buy oem software<br />[url=http://sapresodas.net/]nero 9 special[/url] where can i buy adobe photoshop<br />[url=http://vioperdosas.net/]office 2003 activation bypass[/url] software store pictures<br />software at student discount [url=http://vioperdosas.net/]microsoft office university discount[/url][/b]Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-15296217789569957162010-01-03T12:14:27.231-06:002010-01-03T12:14:27.231-06:00[url=http://rastimores.net/][img]http://akreoplast...[url=http://rastimores.net/][img]http://akreoplastoes.net/img-add/euro2.jpg[/img][/url]<br />[b]how to change the color of the windows xp start button, [url=http://rastimores.net/]selling software over the[/url]<br />[url=http://akreoplastoes.net/][/url] cheap software uk hacked adobe acrobat pro 8 for mac os x<br />selling software in china [url=http://akreoplastoes.net/]DVD Ultimate Mac OS[/url] adobe acrobat 9 student<br />[url=http://rastimores.net/]software from microsoft[/url] filemaker pro migration<br />[url=http://rastimores.net/]software resellers in singapore[/url] nik software discounts<br />kaspersky keys [url=http://akreoplastoes.net/]Mac Box Set NEWLY[/url][/b]Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-75829391060442154362010-01-01T09:59:34.909-06:002010-01-01T09:59:34.909-06:00[url=http://akreoplastoes.net/][img]http://akreopl...[url=http://akreoplastoes.net/][img]http://akreoplastoes.net/img-add/euro2.jpg[/img][/url]<br />[b]pro cheap software, [url=http://rastimores.net/]where to buy photoshop software[/url]<br />[url=http://akreoplastoes.net/][/url] Extended Mac what software to buy<br />pc software to buy [url=http://rastimores.net/]software cheap software[/url] filemaker pro educational pricing<br />[url=http://rastimores.net/]profit discount software[/url] student discount for software<br />[url=http://akreoplastoes.net/]ict software shop imperial[/url] low cost adobe photoshop cs3<br />coreldraw viewer [url=http://akreoplastoes.net/]windows vista ultimate upgrade[/url][/b]Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-83121462984624650432009-05-29T19:59:25.209-05:002009-05-29T19:59:25.209-05:00Winds gusted to 40 knots (74 km/h) at the airport ...Winds gusted to 40 knots (74 km/h) at the airport at 6:15 pm, with the temperature dropping 6 degrees from the 22C at 6 pm. Lots of blowing dust around. As Daniel noted, classic example of high-based dry microburst. <br /><br />Winds starting to drop off now, but there still may be enough of a breeze overnight to prevent a widespread freeze. The northerly component of the wind coming off the downtown core will likely spare southern Winnipeg from a frost tonight.robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-25843913710321440362009-05-29T19:04:03.076-05:002009-05-29T19:04:03.076-05:00Rob, I'm gonna get some peak gusts, so stay with m...Rob, I'm gonna get some peak gusts, so stay with me!Connorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16890729307808750701noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-51949341628219323112009-05-29T18:53:39.355-05:002009-05-29T18:53:39.355-05:00Now that's what I call a cold front!
We got the ve...Now that's what I call a cold front!<br />We got the very strong winds here on the west side of the city also.<br /><br />You could feel the temperature drop almost right away with the passage of the cold front!daniel Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-29984926821866761082009-05-29T18:19:50.435-05:002009-05-29T18:19:50.435-05:00Wow .. very strong gust front tearing thru central...Wow .. very strong gust front tearing thru central Winnipeg right now.. kicking up strong dust clouds.<br /><br />This is a classic example of high based, dry convection typical of arid climates like the US southwest.<br /><br />The low relative humidities causes a very high LCL(lifted condensation level) and significant evaporative cooling. This leads to very strong downdrafts and gusty winds mixing down to the surface. Often times precip never reaches (virga) as in this case.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00949425441824069047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-27589949312094680782009-05-29T18:13:16.763-05:002009-05-29T18:13:16.763-05:00Yeah, I suspected the automated guidance was way t...Yeah, I suspected the automated guidance was way too warm. Glad to see the meteorologists adjusted down the forecast. The down side is an awful lack of forecast continuity. Forecast this morning was still for +5 C for the low. As Rob has suggested many times... if EC insists on using automated extended forecasts, they could at least adopt a blended or ensemble approach for better continuity.<br /><br />Btw... some surface based convection trying to form along arctic front dropping south. Very low dewpoints and moisture will lead to sparse coverage. However, lapse rates are steep providing instability. Looks like a cell trying to form over the downtown core right now.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00949425441824069047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-27376651444644945282009-05-29T18:10:28.842-05:002009-05-29T18:10:28.842-05:00Winds are crazy strong here in St. Andrews right n...Winds are crazy strong here in St. Andrews right now. I would guess some gusts were up to 90km/h.<br /><br />AndrewAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-35492193164705889612009-05-29T17:13:58.034-05:002009-05-29T17:13:58.034-05:00Well ...frost warning issued for tonight!!
lows a...Well ...frost warning issued for tonight!!<br /><br />lows as low a -5 in some parts of southern Manitoba!daniel Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-58885739504049604502009-05-29T07:14:58.985-05:002009-05-29T07:14:58.985-05:00There WILL be snow in June. You heard it here firs...There WILL be snow in June. You heard it here first. Maybe not snow, but definitely frost. EC saying top end early next week will be 13 or 14C.Chris - St.Vitalnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-74284631054447215182009-05-28T22:15:05.474-05:002009-05-28T22:15:05.474-05:00May has been far below normal...and the numbers ba...May has been far below normal...and the numbers back it up:<br /><br />Average temp: +11.9C<br />Actual average temp (2009): +7.9C<br />Departure: -4.0C<br /><br />Average High: +19.1C<br />Actual average high (2009): +13.6C<br />Departure: -5.5C<br /><br />Incredibly cold for May and even more frightening is that the models show no warm-up going into June (they actually show things getting colder).Scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10378918135776009197noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-72880311239701798142009-05-28T15:48:26.195-05:002009-05-28T15:48:26.195-05:00Who knows what will happen with this summer, but t...Who knows what will happen with this summer, but this weekend still looks bad...<br /><br />Tomorrow actually looks like a mild day with some warm advection and good mixing with westerly flow. Things go downhill from there however, with very strong cold advection over nite Friday and late May version of arctic high building down.<br /><br />Models hang on to some cloud Saturday morning... this is critical, if high is able to cause at least some clearing, lows could quickly spike down to near zero(especially YWG). Saturday looks quite cool with 850 hPa temps around 2-3 C and possible patchy low clouds. Core of cold pool will be over NW Ontatio (850 hPa temps below zero!).<br /><br />Moisture return and warm advection on Sunday morning could lead to elevated showers, but moisture and instability remain somewhat in question. Strong cold advection recommences by afternoon and falling temps are possible. In fact GFS shows another chilly high moving in giving another frost potential Monday morning.<br /><br />After this point GFS has all kinds of difficulty resolving a complex split flow pattern that may emerge.<br />Main idea is to modify and shift arctic vortex over eastern Hudson Bay. However, it also wants generate a cold pool over Alberta north of a large cut off low over California (very strange looking pattern). Latest run wants to merge the two and give us a SW flow .. interesting but far too early to put any stock into this solution.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00949425441824069047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-26855654685156006012009-05-28T12:28:22.722-05:002009-05-28T12:28:22.722-05:00Rob!
Environment Canada insists that this is going...Rob!<br />Environment Canada insists that this is going to be a hot summer!<br /><br />I hope they are right!<br />I mean the weather pattern is going to have to do a complete 180 for that to happen!daniel Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-19451067887801006902009-05-28T10:25:07.511-05:002009-05-28T10:25:07.511-05:00The showers last nite likely formed due to warm ai...The showers last nite likely formed due to warm air advection on a LLJ ahead of a disturbance. Moisture transport was limited however, shallow moisture from local evaporation (southerly flow off of waterlogged southern RRV).<br /><br />Last nite we were in warm sector... had the warm core moved in earlier, yesterday afternoon would have seen highs at least into the mid twenties. Cold front came thru around 3 am and significant cold advection sets in today. We may struggle to get to the forecast high of 17 C.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00949425441824069047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-50204492225183147202009-05-27T23:41:03.725-05:002009-05-27T23:41:03.725-05:00strange pop up shower over the NE part of Winnipeg...strange pop up shower over the NE part of Winnipeg right now....fairly heavy but short downpour. Checking the radar showed a small shower over NE Winnipeg but it popped up out of thin air....anyone have any reasoning?Chrisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-81811186274944084222009-05-27T18:01:18.209-05:002009-05-27T18:01:18.209-05:00The extended outlook on the GFS looks terribly ble...The extended outlook on the GFS looks terribly bleak with well below normal values until perhaps the following weekend (10-12 days away).<br /><br />Persistent arctic vortex/cold pool aloft will continue to plague Manitoba. Cold 850 hPa air will begin oozing back in tomorrow. By Saturday, 850 hPa temps are AOB 0 C. With surface high pressure dropping down on the back side of the cold pool... either Friday or Saturday (or both) may see a hard freeze depending on exact timing of the ridge. Not sure if SCRIBE guidance is out to lunch or GEM is not as aggressive with cold air, but 6 C looks way too optimistic for both nites. Rob?<br /><br />Warmer air and moisture briefly return on Sunday giving us our next chance of precip... yet again however, the bulk of the warmth, moisture and instability stay south of the border.<br /><br />No sooner has that disturbance passed, cold pool once again builds over Manitoba. GFS finally shows this arctic vortex weakening and moving over eastern Canada within 10 to 12 days. The models have been toying (or better put struggling) with the idea of a western upper ridge becoming dominant and sending some heat are way... I will believe it when I see it.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00949425441824069047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-74251574984322428892009-05-27T12:08:12.063-05:002009-05-27T12:08:12.063-05:00Does anyone know where I can get historical Mean D...Does anyone know where I can get historical Mean Daily Dew Point data for the last 30 years. I suspect theres a correlation to the previous question.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-7988531983935257312009-05-27T11:07:54.176-05:002009-05-27T11:07:54.176-05:00Rob.
I wonder if this summer is going to be like l...Rob.<br />I wonder if this summer is going to be like last year's ???<br />Every time it looks like there is going to be some "HOT" weather...it just somehow never makes it here!<br /><br />Don't get me wrong.. the weather is finally looking nice and warm.<br /><br />Just now we are finally hitting "NORMAL"<br />temperatures but....nothing warmer than normal!daniel Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-56200502135393326522009-05-27T06:53:02.817-05:002009-05-27T06:53:02.817-05:00Daniel.. I think you got your answer! High for Sa...Daniel.. I think you got your answer! High for Saturday now dropped to 18C! The GLB model, which drives EC’s automated extended forecast for Day 3 to 5, has slowed down a system over SK that was pushing warmer air into southern MB for Saturday. Model now shows a ridge over us Saturday with cooler temperatures.. but it still looks nice with sunny skies and temps near 20C.<br /><br />This shows the problem with automating an extended forecast based on one model. It can easily flip from one run to the next, resulting in rather large swings in the forecast. A blend of model forecasts using the ensemble approach will result in more conservative but less variable forecasts from one run to the next, and will generally trend in the right direction with subsequent runs. Note that ensemble forecasts for Winnipeg yesterday were showing highs around 18C rather than GLB’s optimistic 27C.robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-28088481176746921422009-05-26T20:31:30.838-05:002009-05-26T20:31:30.838-05:00Rob!
Environment Canada is calling for
27 C on Sa...Rob!<br />Environment Canada is calling for <br />27 C on Saturday!!<br />Do you see that being possible or is that just WISH-CASTING????daniel Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-5074698454380629862009-05-26T16:40:39.594-05:002009-05-26T16:40:39.594-05:00Did someone say an Excess water event..What a diff...Did someone say an Excess water event..What a difference a few weeks makes An inconvenience not a disaster These names cover the entire US RRV Fromm the Southern headwaters near Whapeton/Breckinridge to the Sheyenne, Red lake River, Sabin,Rosseau,Snake,Rivers etc and Devils Lake. A few more Excess Water events like this and Devils Lake will be part of the RRV for the second or third time in 4000 years The Last time was the (minor?) flood of 1826 nlol<br /><br /><br />NOAA<br /><br />SOME OF THE RAINFALL TOTALS THAT OCCURRED OVER THE AREA<br />STARTING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT (MAY 24TH) THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT (MAY<br />25TH). ......AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PEMBINA...<br />KITTSON AND ROSEAU COUNTIES. A RIVER FLOOD WARNING WAS ALSO ISSUED<br />FOR THE TWO RIVERS RIVER AT HALLOCK. THE RAINFALL ALSO MADE AN<br />IMPACT ON DEVILS LAKE...WHICH SHOWED A FAIRLY RAPID RISE OF ABOUT<br />TWO TENTHS OF A FOOT.<br /><br /><br /><br />LOCATION RAINFALL AMOUNT<br /><br />NEKOMA (CAVALIER 3.50in<br />CONCRETE Pmbina 3.50<br />BADGER 3.39<br />LAKE BRONSON STATE PARK 3.25<br />CAVALIER 2.91<br />EDINBURG 2.75<br />MILTON 2.75<br />WARROAD 2.71<br />CHURCHS FERRY 2.54<br />ST. THOMAS 2.46<br />ROSEAU 2.46<br />RED LAKE FALLS 2.40<br />GREENBUSH 2.38<br />PEMBINA 2.37<br />CAVALIER (PEMBINA CO) 2.34<br />EDMORE 2.33<br />HUMBOLDT 2.30<br />BAKER 2.11<br />FOREST RIVER 2.02<br />HALLOCK 1.98<br />LANGDON NDSU 1.87<br />CANDO 1.71<br /> <br />GRAFTON 1.66<br />STEPHEN 1.57<br />WYNDMERE 1.52<br />MICHIGAN 1.44<br />CRARY 1.42<br />MAVIE 1.37<br />ELDRED 1.32<br />SABIN 1.32<br />WAHPETON 1.25<br />HILLSBORO 1.22 <br />ROSEAU 1.20<br />MCHENRY 1.19<br />LONG LOST LAKE 1.12<br />NEW YORK MILLS (OTTER TAIL CO) 1.12<br />MAYVILLE 0.97<br /><br />LIDGERWOOD 0.95<br />BRECKENRIDGE 0.95<br />GRAND FORKS NWS 0.92<br />DALTON (OTTER TAIL 0.91<br />MAYVILLE 0.86<br />WARREN 0.83Jimnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-10701689153532817192009-05-25T23:32:28.943-05:002009-05-25T23:32:28.943-05:00NWS Grand Forks reporting rainfall totals of 2.5 t...NWS Grand Forks reporting rainfall totals of 2.5 to 3.5 inches (60-90 mm) just south of the border from south of Langdon to Pembina. Flood warning issued for Pembina county for small stream and overland flooding. I imagine this will keep the Red River levels up a little while longer..robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-7730463542758477292009-05-25T21:21:24.057-05:002009-05-25T21:21:24.057-05:00General amounts of 20 to 40 mm over the southern R...General amounts of 20 to 40 mm over the southern RRV and SE MB.. with Sprague up to 48 mm as of 9 pm (and still raining) Radar shows heaviest swath was from Emerson area through Sandilands Forest to Lake of the Woods where 40-60 mm may have fallen.robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-56430724855141558942009-05-25T17:38:31.158-05:002009-05-25T17:38:31.158-05:00Generally 15-30 mm along and south of the trans Ca...Generally 15-30 mm along and south of the trans Canada as of 2 pm.<br />Moderate cells still training over the Emerson to Sprague region and will be interesting to see rainfall totals from there.<br /><br />Despite strong radar returns overnite and in early morning, low levels took a long time to saturate due to dry east flow.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00949425441824069047noreply@blogger.com