Rob's Blog

January 2012 on pace for 2nd or 3rd warmest January on record

2012-01-27T05:30:00.012-06:00

Other than a few days of below normal weather during the third week of the month, January 2012 has been unseasonably mild over southern Manitoba, running some 7 degrees above normal to date (normal January monthly mean in Winnipeg is -17.8C) The month began with an exceptionally mild start averaging some 15C above normal over the first 10 days of the month, with temperatures soaring to record breaking values of +7C in Winnipeg on the 5th, and +12C over the western RRV. A mini cold snap between the 16th and 21st brought a spell of below normal temperatures in the minus 20s, but the cold snap was short lived as milder weather returned for the last 10 days of the month. As a result, Jan 2012 is on pace to finish with a mean monthly temperature around -10.8C, which would make it the third warmest January in Winnipeg since January records began in 1873. Only Jan 2006 (-7.4C) and Jan 1944 (-10.6C) have been milder in Winnipeg, with January 1942 currently the third warmest at -11.4C. In fact, if milder weather develops as predicted over the last couple of days of the month, January 2012 will challenge Jan 1944 as the second mildest January ever in Winnipeg. This comes off a mild December that was the 9th mildest on record finishing over 6C above normal. This January will also mark the 7th consecutive month of above normal temperatures in Winnipeg, going back to July 2011. And it looks like the above normal temperatures will continue into the beginning of February with well above normal temperatures likely to start the month. It's been quite the ride.. one wonders, how long will it continue?

For additional details on this winter's amazing warmth, see the latest entry from A Weather Moment ("What happened to winter?") (also includes introduction of a new model viewer as well!)

Mild week ahead..

2012-01-23T14:10:00.006-06:00

Milder weather is on tap over the next few days as a westerly flow of Pacific air spreads across the Prairies one again this week. Temperatures are forecast to climb to the freezing mark by Wednesday over the RRV along with gusty south winds. Some snow is possible in the wake of this system Wednesday night into Thursday, with colder weather forecast for the weekend. Temperatures however are only expected to drop to near normal values for this time of year, which are highs of -13 and lows of -23C. At this time, there are no indications of a return to the deep freeze that we experienced last week. The tame winter of 2011-12 continues..

More snow on the way Sunday..

2012-01-21T16:54:00.004-06:00

Some light snow affected much of the RRV today, as a warm front started to push across southern MB bringing a reprieve from the Arctic cold of the past week. This front will usher in even milder temperatures for Sunday, although more snow is in the forecast. A low pressure system will pass through the Dakotas Sunday with a trough extending back into southern MB. Snow associated with this storm system will spread into the RRV and southeastern MB Sunday with accumulating snow likely. Right now, it looks like areas south and east of Winnipeg may get clipped with 5-10 cm of snow Sunday into Sunday night, with lesser amounts of 2-5 cm for Winnipeg and the northern RRV. Note however that Winnipeg could see higher snowfall amounts if this system pushes a little further north. Slightly colder weather is forecast behind this system Monday and Tuesday, but above normal temperatures are expected for latter half of the week.

UPDATE: Looks like main system will be tracking further southeast than earlier thought.. some light snow possible for us later today into tonight, but little accumulation expected. A couple cm possible to our south and east.

Cold week ahead.. moderating temperatures with some snow by the weekend.

2012-01-16T17:18:00.005-06:00

A large dome of arctic air will be flooding over the Prairies this week, bringing the coldest weather of the season so far to southern MB. Temperatures this week will likely stay below the -20C mark all week, with the season's first -30C readings predicted for Thursday and Friday mornings. A weak clipper system will bring some clouds and light snow to the RRV Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with a dusting to 2 cm possible. Other than that, generally clear and cold weather is expected this week. A moderating trend is expected by next weekend along with a good chance of more snow. Until then, get ready for some typical Prairie mid-winter cold weather for the next few days..

For additional details on this week's deep freeze and other weather stories, check the A Weather Moment weather blog.. another local website with insightful analysis and commentary on southern MB weather.

Milder weekend.. then getting even colder for next week..

2012-01-13T14:30:00.003-06:00

After snapping us back to reality, Mother Nature will bring some moderating temperatures to southern MB this weekend as a warm front over southern Saskatchewan edges eastward. This front will bring in some light snow to southern MB tonight with a dusting to 2 cm possible over the RRV. On Saturday cloudy skies are expected with a chance of flurries, and temperatures around the -8C mark along with light winds. On Sunday, a clipper system from Alberta is forecast to track across southern MB bringing milder conditions to the RRV along with some snow, especially north of Winnipeg through the Interlake regions where 5-10 cm is possible. Colder air will follow in the wake of this storm system by Monday with temperatures plunging back to below normal values for next week. In fact, it will be the coldest weather of the season so far with highs in the minus 20s and our first -30C readings possible in Winnipeg by Tuesday morning. By Wednesday a clipper system will bring in cloud and some light snow followed by clearing and colder weather for the end of week. Looking further ahead, long range guidance is hinting at moderating temperatures for the end for January along with an increased chance of snow bearing systems over southern MB as a strong jet stream sets up along the US border.

Another mild day today then Arctic blast moves in for Wednesday..

2012-01-10T09:25:00.004-06:00

It'll be one more day of above freezing temperatures today over southern Manitoba before the well advertised blast of Arctic air moves in tonight into Wednesday. Temperatures today will once again flirt with record highs near +5c in Winnipeg, with milder readings to our southwest. This will be our 7th day so far this month with a daily high above the freezing mark, an amazing stat considering we typically see only 1 or 2 days above freezing all of January. But that will be the end of the mild weather for awhile as a sharp cold front pushes across southern MB tonight. This front will usher in a much colder airmass from the north along with occasional snow and gusty northwest winds overnight through Wednesday. Temperatures will fall to the minus 15C mark by Wednesday morning, and continue to drop during the day to minus 20C by evening. Windchill values (remember those?) will fall to the minus 30 range.. which will be a shock to the system after such a prolonged spell of mild weather (32 consecutive days above normal). The cold weather will persist through Thursday before a moderating trend this weekend. Get the cold weather gear ready.. more typical January weather is on the way!

Another record breaking mild day across southern MB

2012-01-09T13:31:00.015-06:00

Another day of record highs is expected across southern MB today as the abnormally mild weather pattern of the past month continues across the Prairies.

Highs today of +4 to +9C are expected across southern MB, with the warmest readings expected over the snowfree areas of the southern and western RRV, as well as along the US border. Satellite photos (see left image above) show an incredible lack of snowcover across the southern Prairies and northern Plains, with no snow on the ground over most of the Dakotas, Minnesota, Montana, and much of southern SK and SW MB. The image looks like something from April, not early January! Note the webcam image from Emerson today (above right), showing a complete lack of snowcover under clear blue skies and temperatures of +7C as of 1 pm. Much of the RRV south and west of Winnipeg looks like this. More records are expected today across southern MB, although Winnipeg will likely be slightly shy of today's record high of +5.6C in 1958 due to some lingering snow on the ground here.

Today's records across Manitoba

Location............................ Rec High ........ old ........... year......Records began

BRANDON                 4.5      4.4      1986    1890
GRETNA                  8.0      7.2      1958    1956
ISLAND LAKE            -0.2     -0.6      2002    1971
MELITA                  8.6      3.9      2006    1993
SPRAGUE                 5.9      5.0      1958    1916
THOMPSON               -3.3     -3.8      1983    1967

Regardless, today marks the 31st consecutive day of above normal temperatures in Winnipeg and southern MB (see temperature graph left). Daily temperatures have been above normal every day since Dec 10th averaging 10C above normal through the period, with only 4 days below normal since Nov 21st (a span of 49 days) But some changes are on the way as colder air is poised to move in over southern MB by Wednesday. Even then, temperatures are only expected to fall to the normal range with highs around -13C and lows near -23C. But after 4 straight weeks of mild temperatures, you'll understand if people have forgotten what "normal" is. Until then, enjoy the nice balmy weather while it's here!

Pattern change to colder weather by middle of next week..

2012-01-06T22:42:00.004-06:00

Long range guidance is beginning to show signs of a pattern change to colder weather over southern MB by Wednesday of next week. After another surge of mild Pacific air with above freezing temperatures over southern MB on Monday, a large Arctic airmass will begin to flood into the northwest Prairies by Tuesday. This colder airmass will spread into southern MB by Wednesday in the wake of a low pressure system crossing the International border Tuesday that will bring some snow to southern MB.. possibly 2-5 cm. After Wednesday, long range guidance is suggesting a spell of below normal temperatures over southern MB through next weekend into the third week of January, which would mean daily highs of -15C or colder, and lows of -25C or lower. How long this cold spell will last is not known. The AO index remains positive, which suggests that the spell of cold weather may not last long.. and there is considerable uncertainty in the 2 week forecast. But colder weather appears to be on the way for a little while.. which will be good news for people looking for more typical January weather to finally arrive in southern MB.

Third warmest January day on record in Winnipeg

2012-01-06T07:14:00.007-06:00

Yesterday's high of +6.7C at Winnipeg airport was Winnipeg's third warmest January day on record, tied with the 6.7C on Jan 22 1942. Only 2 January days have been warmer than yesterday in Winnipeg.. Jan 11 1986 at 7.3C, and Jan 23 1942 at 7.8C. Official temperature records in Winnipeg began in 1872.

How close did Winnipeg airport get to setting an all time January high yesterday? Temperatures up to 8C were recorded just outside the Perimeter in Headingley and St Norbert, with 9C in Sanford and Starbuck, 10C in Brunkild, and 11c in Sperling and Elm Creek. (See CWB mesonet temperature plot image above for 3 pm temperatures yesterday, as well as MB ag-wx mesonet summary) My station in SW Winnipeg registered a high of +7.4C, while the Forks hit +7.6C. So the airport was literally just 10 miles away from all time high status. Regardless, a spectacular January day (if you're not crazy about cold weather).

Record mild day on tap.. all time January highs possible over RRV

2012-01-05T08:39:00.014-06:00

Today will be one for the record books as a push of unseasonably mild air spreads across the Prairies into southern Manitoba. A brisk southwest flow will send temperatures well above the freezing mark, with afternoon highs expected in the +5 to +8c range over much of southern MB, some 20C above normal for early January (normal highs of -13C). The warmest area is expected in the western RRV from Portage through Carman to Morden/Winkler/Gretna areas where a lack of snow and a favourable downslope wind will likely push temperatures to the 10C mark this afternoon. In fact , these areas are already at a phenomenal +6C as of 8 am! Numerous record highs are likely today, with the possibility that some localities in southern MB may establish all time January highs today. In Winnipeg, today's record high of +4.3C in 1984 will easily be surpassed.. with the possibility that we may exceed the all time warmest January day ever in the city of +7.8C set back on Jan 23 1942.

All time January high temperatures include..

Winnipeg.......+ 7.8C ..... Jan 23 1942
Portage .........+11.1C .... Jan 23 1942
Brandon ........ + 8.3C .... Jan 21 2001
Dauphin ........ +9.6C ..... Jan 11 1986

Will today be Winnipeg's warmest January day ever since records began in 1872? Be sure to get outside today to find out the answer!

UPDATE: YWG's official high today was +6.7C.. easily a record high for the day, but 1.1C shy of the all time January high. (see video of today's mild weather) Temperatures in the RRV climbed into double digits just south and west of Winnipeg (see 3 pm WxBug temperature plot and MB ag-wx mesonet summary) Other highs today included..

Melita ......... 11.9C
Gretna ........ 11.5C
Carman ...... 11.4C
Morden ...... 11.4C
Emerson ..... 11.1C
Portage ....... 10.3C
Dauphin ...... 9.0C
Brandon ...... 7.3C

Further south in North Dakota, all time January highs were established in Fargo (13C vs 12C), Minot (16C vs 15C), Williston (14C vs 13C) and Jamestown (13C (tied))

Continuing mild.. record highs likely Thursday

2012-01-04T06:50:00.006-06:00

The mild weather of December has continued into January, as Arctic air remains trapped well to the north.. unable to push south due to a strong westerly flow aloft bringing surges of mild Pacific air across the Prairies. Tuesday was another very mild day across southern MB, with temperatures rising above freezing once again in Winnipeg (+0.6C), and a record +6.5C in Carman, MB.. the provincial hot spot. Today will see temperatures around the freezing mark before another surge of Pacific air spreads across southern Manitoba Thursday, with temperatures forecast to reach record breaking values in the +4 to +7C range. Snowfree areas of the western RRV from Portage through Carman to Morden/Gretna areas may even hit the 10C mark Thursday.. over 20C above normal. In Winnipeg, a high of +7C is forecast, which would easily break the record high for January 5th of +4.3C set in 1984. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected for Friday into the weekend, but still remaining some 5-10C above normal for early January (normal highs of -13C, normal lows -23C) No significant precipitation is expected through the next 5 days.

The mild and dry weather is coming off the heels of a very mild and dry December in southern Manitoba, which finished as the 9th mildest December on record in Winnipeg (-8.1C, +6.3C above normal) with only about 5 cm of snow the entire month (9th least snowiest December on record) Average daily temperatures have been consistently above average since Dec 10th. Mild Decembers have been fairly common the past decade. Five of the top 18 mildest Decembers in Winnipeg have occurred within the past 10 years (2011, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2003). December marked the 6th consecutive month in Winnipeg that has averaged above normal temperature wise. (see temperature graph of past 12 months)

A rare brown Christmas for southern RRV, southwest MB, North Dakota..

2011-12-25T16:32:00.007-06:00

It was a rare brown Christmas for portions of southern MB and much of North Dakota this year as the spell of unseasonably mild and dry weather that has persisted much of December continued through the Christmas holiday weekend. Much of the southern and western Red River valley (incl Emerson (above left), Morden and Carman) , southwest MB (Pilot Mound to Melita) and much of North Dakota (Grand Forks, right) were snowfree Christmas morning.. the first time this has happened since at least 1997. In Winnipeg, there was a little more snow around with about 2 cm on the ground Christmas day (an official "white" Christmas here) although most large open fields in and around the city had little or no snow cover (see webcam shots from south Winnipeg and Sanford). This is the lowest Christmas day snowdepth in Winnipeg since 1997 when a trace was officially observed at Winnipeg airport during a strong El Nino winter.

Satellite photos (left) show the minimal snow cover extent across southern MB and North Dakota, with little snow evident over the southern and western Red River valley and North Dakota and Minnesota.. which normally would be covered in white by this time of year. Click here for an explanation on this winter's slow start. Whether it was brown, white or green.. here's hoping everyone had a happy and healthy Christmas! All the best in 2012!

Staying mild and storm free through Christmas..

2011-12-21T14:58:00.003-06:00

The above normal temperatures and tranquil weather of December is forecast to continue through the upcoming Christmas holiday weekend, with little in the way of major weather systems to disrupt holiday travel plans across southern MB. Temperatures are expected to remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal through early next week as mild Pacific airmasses periodically sweep across the Prairies keeping cold Arctic intrusions at bay. In fact, above freezing temperatures are forecast for Christmas Day into Boxing Day as another push of Pacific air sweeps in over the holidays. This will likely mean a brown Christmas for portions of southern MB this year, especially towards the US border into North Dakota (see webcam page). For Winnipeg, we will likely end up with whatever we have now.. a meager coating of about 2 or 3 cm with no significant snowfall expected between now and Christmas. The longer range outlook calls for above normal temperatures to continue through the end of December, with no signs yet of a major pattern shift to colder and snowier weather over the southern Prairies. For you snowlovers out there, have faith though.. technically, winter is just starting! (winter solstice arrives tonight at 11:30 pm CST)

Christmas Day snow stats for Winnipeg

2011-12-20T12:10:00.010-06:00

Here are some Winnipeg Christmas snow stats looking at how often Winnipeg has had a White Christmas. These figures are based on snow on the ground measurements from Winnipeg airport from 1955-2002, and Charleswood from 2003-present.

Christmas day snow on ground stats (Winnipeg since 1955)

Least snow on ground....... TR (1997)
Most snow on ground......... 80 cm (1955)
Average snow on ground.... 16 cm

Last 10 Christmases..

2010 ......... 23 cm
2009 ......... 10 cm
2008 ......... 24 cm
2007 ......... 28 cm
2006 ......... 11 cm
2005 ......... 14 cm
2004 ........... 8 cm
2003 ........... 4 cm
2002 .......... 12 cm
2001 .......... 12 cm
2000 .......... 30 cm

Since 1955, there have been 7 Christmases in Winnipeg with 3 cm or less on the ground. There have been 6 Christmases with 30 cm or more on the ground (last one was Dec 2000). This year it looks like we'll end up with 2 or 3 cm on the ground Christmas Day, barring any unexpected snowfalls between now and Sunday. That will be the least amount of snow on Christmas day in Winnipeg since 1997 (although we had a paltry 4 cm in 2003).

Prior to 1955, there have been 3 Christmases documented in Winnipeg with no snow on the ground, although these are not part of the official climate record. They were 1939, 1913 and 1877. There was also reference made that in Dec 1834, the first snow of the season in Winnipeg fell on Dec 28th.. so it's possible Dec 1834 was also a brown Christmas (but then, we don't know what they considered the first significant snow back in 1834)

Where's the snow? Snow drought continues over southern MB..

2011-12-15T17:59:00.016-06:00

The lack of snow this month in Winnipeg and southern MB is becoming quite evident with barely any snow on the ground just 10 days before Christmas. In Winnipeg, only 0.8 cm of snow has fallen so far this month as of the 15th, with only a couple of cm still on the ground. Parts of the southern Red River valley are actually snow free as is much of eastern North Dakota.. raising the prospect of a possible brown (or "green") Christmas this year with little in the way of significant snowfalls expected over the next week or so.

In Winnipeg, the 0.8 cm of snow so far this month is well below the monthly average of 19.8 cm.. and is on pace to be one of the least snowiest Decembers on record if the snow drought continues. The last December in Winnipeg with less than 10 cm of snow for the month was December 1997 when only 7.3 cm fell during a strong El Nino winter. Below is a list of Winnipeg's top 10 least snowy Decembers since records began in 1872.

Top 10 least snowy Decembers in Winnipeg (since 1872)

1. 1877 ............ 0.5 cm (warmest December and winter on record)
2. 1892 ............ 1.3 cm
3. 1931 ............ 2.0 cm
4. 1899 ............ 2.8 cm
5. 1954 ............ 3.3 cm
6. 1939 ............ 3.6 cm (Green Christmas)
7. 1907 ............ 4.6 cm
8. 1896 ............ 4.8 cm
9. 1959 ............ 5.3 cm
10. 1957 .......... 6.1 cm

As can be seen from the table, there have been several Decembers with meager snowfall.. so we still have a ways to go to enter the top 10. It doesn't take much to get a snowfall of 5-10 cm or more in December, so by no means is it a sure thing. But the way things have been going, the potential is there for a top 10 finish.

So what does a lack of snow in December mean the rest of the winter as far as snowfall is concerned? Not much really. Of the top 10 least snowy Decembers, about half had above normal snowfall the rest of the winter, and half had below normal snowfall. So there really isn't a correlation between December snowfall and the rest of the winter. So if you're itching for some of the white stuff, take heed.. we still have a lot of winter left!

Freezing drizzle leaves icy conditions in Winnipeg/southern MB...

2011-12-14T21:41:00.008-06:00

Freezing drizzle was observed across Winnipeg and much of southern MB today as a moist mild airmass brought extensive low cloud and misty conditions across a large part of the Northern plains and eastern Prairies. The image here is what the Bishop Grandin webcam looked like this evening in the south part of Winnipeg, a result of a coating of freezing drizzle on the webcam lens. Kind of pretty actually.. looks like an impressionist oil painting! Freezing drizzle can sometimes occur in moist stagnant airmasses in the winter when temperatures are close to but below freezing, although it's not as serious as freezing rain which can lead to greater ice accumulations in a shorter time. However, an extended period of freezing drizzle can leave a thin coating of ice on exposed surfaces, with slippery conditions on untreated roads and walkways. Drier and colder conditions are expected overnight into Thursday as brisk northwest winds usher in a colder airmass from the north. Temperatures will return to normal over the next couple of days before another warmup this weekend. Some light flurries are possible from time to time, but overall no significant snowfall is expected over the next week as the snow drought continues over southern MB.

Milder for the weekend.. cooler again next week. Snow continues to evade southern MB..

2011-12-09T14:23:00.008-06:00

Cold weather today will give way to milder weather this weekend as a milder Pacific airmass spreads across the Prairies. Temperatures will climb into the minus 2 to minus 5C range over the Red River valley for the weekend, with light winds and partly sunny skies. Cooler air will follow Monday into Tuesday, but temperatures should be close to seasonal averages which are now close to -10C for highs and -20C for lows.

As far as snow is concerned, there is little in the forecast over the next little while. Models continue to show a lack of major weather systems affecting southern MB over the next week to 10 days.. with the exception of a potential storm system passing through Minnesota late next week which may affect parts of southern MB by next Thursday or Friday. Other than that, things look pretty quiet as snow bearing systems mainly bypass us well to the north, or to our southeast. This will come as bad news to snowlovers out there, but will be welcome news to those who aren't as fond of the white stuff. So far, we've had less than 1 cm of snow in December, with only a minor coating still on the ground.

Snowy weather set to return tonight..

2011-11-25T07:47:00.004-06:00

After a couple of spring-like days over the Red River valley that saw the snowpack virtually disappear with temperatures in the +8-13C range, wintery weather is set to return by this evening as a weather system crosses southern Manitoba. Snow is expected to develop across the Red River valley by early this evening as the system gets organized, with a risk of some freezing rain or ice pellets at the onset. Snow will continue tonight into Saturday morning with accumulations of around 5 cm by the time it tapers off. As the system moves into NW Ontario Saturday, gusty northwest winds of 30 to 50 km/h will develop over southern MB with temperatures near the freezing mark. Clearing skies are expected for Sunday with above normal temperatures into early next week.

UPDATE: 8 am Nov 26th: 6.4 cm of snow at my place since last evening. 6 cm snow on ground. Snowfall total since Nov 1st: 22 cm. Normal Nov snowfall: 21 cm.

Record mild day over parts of southern MB.. more records likely Thursday..

2011-11-23T18:59:00.007-06:00

It was a mild day over southern Manitoba today with plenty of sunshine and a southwest flow tapping a mild Pacific airmass spreading across the Prairies. Temperatures rose to the 7C mark in Winnipeg, even with a coating of snow on the ground, while temperatures soared into the double digits over the snowfree southern Red River valley. Gretna at 12.4C set a new record for November 23rd, beating the previous record high of 7.2C in 1962. Pinawa (6.5C), Gimli (7.6C) and Fisher Branch (8.6C) also set new record highs today. Further south Grand Forks soared to a record 14.4C. More records are likely Thursday over southern MB as the mild airmass remains over the area, with highs of 7-10C over the northern RRV, and 10-13C over the south. For Winnipeg, a high of +8C is forecast Thursday, which would be a record high for November 24th (currently 7.2C set in 1907)

Cooler but above normal weather is forecast for Friday, before a system brings some snow to southern MB Friday night into Saturday with a few cm possible.

UPDATE: (Thu Nov 24th) Winnipeg Airport hit 9.7C this afternoon.. easily beating the previous record high of 7.2C for the day. Even milder readings were found over the western Red River valley including Portage, Carman, Morden and Gretna at 12C. At least 7 record highs were set across southern MB this afternoon. MB hot spot was Cypress River at 12.5C. Note that Winnipeg's latest double digit temperature was an 11.7C reading on Dec 6 1939.

Nice warmup on the way this week

2011-11-20T10:22:00.002-06:00

If the cold weather this weekend was a little too early for your liking, take heart.. warmer weather is on the way across the Prairies this week. A surge of mild Pacific air will push into Alberta Monday and then spread into southern SK and southern MB Tuesday into Wednesday, pushing temperatures above the freezing mark once again. The mild weather is forecast to continue through the end of the week before a brief cooldown on the weekend.

Clipper to bring more snow by Thursday night.. colder weather for the weekend..

2011-11-16T20:21:00.002-06:00

An Alberta clipper system is forecast to track across southern Manitoba Thursday night bringing a band of light to moderate snow mainly along and north of the TransCanada corridor. Snow from this system will spread into western Manitoba Thursday afternoon and push into the northern RRV Thursday evening. Snowfall amounts of 2-5 cm are likely by Friday morning with 5-10 cm possible over the Riding Mtns and southern Interlake. (see attached HPC probability map of snowfall>= 5 cm) The snow should pull off into NW Ontario Friday with northerly winds bringing in colder weather for the weekend. High temperatures will only reach the -8C range while overnight lows drop into the minus teens.. with -20C possible in some areas.

Weekend storm system brings first significant snowfall across southern Manitoba

2011-11-07T09:53:00.005-06:00

The storm system that tracked across southern Manitoba over the weekend brought the season's first snowfall to much of southern Manitoba, including Winnipeg and the Red River valley last night. Light rain yesterday changed to snow in the evening and continued overnight bringing a coating of about 3-4 cm of wet snow to Winnipeg by Monday morning. The heaviest snowfall with this storm system however was concentrated towards the SK border where 20-30 cm of snow was recorded near the Swan River area beginning Saturday night. Here are some snowfall reports from the latest storm..

Mafeking .............. 28 cm (between Swan River and The Pas)
Cowan ................. 28 cm (east of Swan River)
Swan River ........... 20 cm
Roblin .................... 17 cm
Gilbert Plains ........ 17 cm (west of Dauphin)
Grand Rapids ........ 14 cm
Elkhorn ................... 14 cm
Rossburn ................ 14 cm (western Riding Mtn Park)
Oakbank ................. 6 cm
Winnipeg ................ 3 cm (Rob's Obs)
Steinbach ............... 2 cm

Weekend system to bring rain to RRV.. snow towards SK border..

2011-11-04T13:45:00.010-05:00

The storm system that will be affecting southern Manitoba this weekend is expected to track across the western RRV Saturday night pushing through the Interlake towards the Ontario border Sunday. The bulk of precipitation with this system is expected to fall north and west of the low track, with most of the precipitation falling as snow towards the SK border. Snow is expected to develop over eastern SK late Saturday then spread northeastward towards the MB border Saturday night into Sunday morning. Snow will then continue over the northern Interlake pushing across the north basin of Lake Winnipeg during the day. At this point, it looks like a general 10-15 cm of snow is possible along the SK/MB border especially from Roblin up through the Swan River area towards The Pas. (see graphic from NOAA HPC showing probability of 10 cm or more snowfall) Similar amounts of snow are expected over neighbouring eastern SK. Further south, some light rain is expected to fall over the RRV Saturday night into Sunday, possibly mixing with a few wet snowflurries by Sunday afternoon as colder air wraps in behind the system. Overall though, the bulk of wintery weather with this system is expected to fall well north and west of Winnipeg. People planning on travelling through the Swan River/Roblin/Yorkton/Kamsack areas late Saturday into Sunday should be prepared for winterlike driving conditions.

UPDATE.. 8 am Nov 6. Here's a webcam image from Assessippi ski resort this morning along the MB/SK border near Roblin. At least 10 cm of snow was reported in the area overnight with another 5 cm or more expected today before things taper off. Road conditions in western MB and southern SK are listed as snowcovered and slippery this morning with travel not advised on some highways.

Some snowfall observations from southern MB and SK last night into today..

Mafeking, MB ......... 27 cm (between Swan River and The Pas) (5 pm)
Pelly SK ................... 24 cm (west of Swan River near Kamsack) (5 pm)
Grand Rapids MB ... 14 cm (6 pm)
Yorkton SK .............. 10 cm (8 am)
Roblin MB................. 10 cm (8 am)
Rossburn MB ........... 9 cm (8 am)
Regina SK.................. 6-10 cm (8 am)
Saltcoats SK ................ 8 cm (SE of Yorkton) (8 am)
Gilbert Plains MB .... 5 cm (west of Dauphin) (8 am)

Storm system still threatens rain/snow over southern MB this weekend..

2011-11-02T23:33:00.002-05:00

Models continue to indicate the likelihood of a storm system emerging out of the central Rockies and moving into the northern Plains this weekend, bringing an area of rain and wet snow over southern MB Saturday into Sunday. As usual with these systems, determining where the rain/snow line will set up is difficult to pinpoint several days ahead.. but a growing consensus is emerging that the bulk of the snow will likely fall mainly west and north of the Red River valley (especially in areas with higher elevation), with mainly rain over the Red River valley and SE MB. Even here though, rain may change over to snow Sunday morning as colder air wraps in on the backside of the system, with some slushy accumulations possible before the area of precipitation moves out. Again, the storm system is still a few days out and things can change.. so stay tuned as we monitor the progress of this potential first snowmaker of the season for parts of southern MB.

Dry and mild for Halloween.. Potential Colorado low storm system threatens rain/snow for upcoming weekend..

2011-10-31T09:59:00.002-05:00

It will be ideal weather for trick or treating this evening with above normal temperatures and dry conditions forecast. Cloudy skies this morning will give way to afternoon sunshine along with brisk southerly winds of 30-50 km/h that will send temperatures up to the 10-11C mark this afternoon. For this evening, expect partly cloudy skies and temperatures of +5 to +8C, with diminishing southwest winds... about as good as it gets in southern MB for Halloween.

The rest of the week looks uneventful with generally dry weather and above normal temperatures. Attention will then turn to the upcoming weekend as models are indicating the potential of a Colorado low storm system moving into the Northern Plains spreading an area of rain and snow over the Dakotas and southern MB Saturday into Sunday. At this point, it's still too early to be more precise on what areas will see snow and what areas will see rain, if any. Currently, models are suggesting that the storm will track from Colorado through Nebraska into NW Minnesota with the rain/snow line setting up somewhere through the RRV. This would give a higher threat of rain over southeastern MB and snow over southwest MB. This of course will be highly dependent on the actual track and intensity of the storm which is still in question. Still, it's the first potential storm of the season for us to monitor.. and we'll stay on top of it to see how it unfolds. Stay tuned!

Seasonable weather this week

2011-10-23T10:17:00.002-05:00

Generally dry and seasonable weather is expected over southern Manitoba over the next few days as a zonal flow predominates over the central continent. Today will be a beautiful fall day over the Red River valley with sunny skies and temperatures of 10-13C (warmest in the south) although some cloud is spreading over the northern valley through the Interlake regions (towards Gimli and Grand Beach). A system passing through the Dakotas is forecast to spread cloud and some precipitation mainly south of the border Monday night into Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure will follow in the wake of that system bringing generally dry and seasonable weather for the remainder of the week.

Brisk and cool this weekend.. lake effect showers possible

2011-10-14T22:06:00.003-05:00

It will be a brisk and cool weekend over southern Manitoba with increasing northwesterly winds as a strong storm system intensifies over northern Ontario this weekend. Northwest winds of 30-40 km/h Saturday will increase to 40 gusting 60 km/h Sunday as the storm system intensifies. The cool northwest winds blowing over the 13C waters of the Manitoba lakes will generate bands of lake effect showers mainly off Lake Winnipeg, with localized bands of rain to the southeast of the lakes. Brisk and cool conditions are expected through early next week with temperatures in the single digits before calmer weather by mid week.

Wild winds whip Winnipeg, Red River valley

2011-10-08T04:00:00.007-05:00

After several days of unseasonably warm temperatures, a cold front swept through Southern Manitoba late Friday bringing very strong winds mainly through the Red River Valley along with a few late season thunderstorms. The band of thunderstorms even produced pea to marble size hail in a few localities through the Interlake. Behind the front, very strong southerly winds developed by mid to late afternoon with gusts of 90 to 110 km/h recorded across much of the Red River Valley including Winnipeg. The winds were strong enough to bring down trees and power lines in parts of Winnipeg resulting in local power outages. The strong winds were also fanning two large brush fires south and east of Steinbach.

Some of the strongest wind gusts recorded Friday from Environment Canada and private weather monitoring sites:

South perimeter (Winnipeg)........ 108 km/h
Altona ........................................... 108 km/h
Winnipeg brady landfill............... 101 km/h
Oak Bluff ....................................... 100 km/h
Rosser ............................................. 98 km/h
Whyte ridge (Winnipeg) .............. 98 km/h
Lockport ........................................ 98 km/h
Miami ............................................. 98 km/h
Morris ............................................ 98 km/h
St. Laurent ..................................... 97 km/h
Winnipeg airport............................ 95 km/h at 6:09 PM
Steinbach ........................................ 95 km/h
Morden ............................................ 95 km/h
St. Adolphe....................................... 95 km/h
Narcisse ........................................... 93 km/h
darlingford ...................................... 93 km/h
Brunkild ........................................... 93 km/h
Fannystelle ..................................... 93 km/h
La Salle............................................. 91 km/h
Emerson ......................................... 89 km/h at 6:47 PM
Deerwood ...................................... 89 km/h at 3:27 PM
Portage la Prairie.......................... 89 km/h at 4:12 PM
Victoria Beach ................................ 89 km/h at 5:24 PM

At my site in Charleswood, my station's recently roof-mounted anemometer recorded a peak unadjusted wind gust of 76 km/h at 6:06 pm, the highest wind gust at my station since I installed it in Aug 2001. Note however that up until last month, my anemometer was never roof mounted but lower to the ground, so it's hard to compare with my previous wind history. Nevertheless, it was a strong wind event. Note that my website displays an adjusted wind speed that is 30% higher than the raw wind speed indicated by my weather station. This is to compensate for the less ideal exposure at my location, which is surrounded by trees and residential homes. I have found that 30% makes my wind readings more comparable to standard wind readings taken at well exposed sites at 10 metres (33 feet). Adjusting the raw peak gust value of 76 km/h by 30% would give a value of 98 km/h, which is line with peak gusts recorded in south Winnipeg Friday. I may tweak this adjustment factor down to 20-25% once surrounding trees are bare.

Very windy conditions Friday..

2011-10-06T18:24:00.004-05:00

It's been a windy day over Winnipeg and the Red River valley with southerly winds gusting to 70 km/h at times this afternoon. But even stronger winds are possible Friday as a cold front pushes across southern Manitoba. This front will be accompanied by a band of showers as well as some isolated thunderstorms as it moves across the Red River valley in the afternoon. Behind the front, a strong south-southwest push of cooler air will flood in, with gusts to 80 km/h at times. These strong southerly winds will persist through the afternoon before diminishing somewhat by evening. Cooler and breezy conditions are expected Saturday behind the front with lighter winds and more pleasant conditions Sunday. A few showers are possible by Thanksgiving Monday.

9:10 am UPDATE: A wind warning has been issued for the Red River valley including Winnipeg for very strong southerly winds this afternoon gusting to 90 km/h or higher. Click here for real time Winnipeg airport wind readings (in knots)

Winnipeg closes in on all time October high temperature

2011-10-05T12:49:00.008-05:00

Today's already one for the record books.. with Winnipeg airport's 28.6C as of 1 pm surpassing the record high for Oct 5th of 28.3C set back in 1943. The question now is.. could Winnipeg set an all time high temperature today for any day in October, which currently stands at 30.5C on Oct 1 1992? The potential is there.. with a few more hours of heating left this afternoon along with gusty south to southeast winds tapping warm air to the south, lots of sunshine, and low humidity. Since 1872, Winnipeg has hit the 30C mark in October on only 3 occasions.. Oct 1 1992 (30.5C), Oct 1 1922 (30.0C) and Oct 6 1879 (30.0C) The way things are going, today will be another to add to the list. One for the record books!

3 pm update: It's official! Winnipeg records hottest October day ever with a temperature of 30.8C as of 3 pm today. Previous warmest October day was Oct 1 1992 at 30.5C. Records go back to 1872. Temperature may still climb a bit for the final reading today. (Final reading 31.1C) Temperature at my Rob's Obs site hit 31.7C at 3:39 pm (see temperature graph left).

The record day today was accompanied by gusty southerly winds up to 60 km/h, tapping 925 mb temperatures of 25C (see 19Z 925 mb plot) This, along with plenty of sunshine and low humidity, resulted in surface temperatures of 30-33C across the Red River valley. Manitoba and Canadian hot spot today was Portage La Prairie at 32.8C. See Free Press article on record setting day.

Warm and windy Wednesday.. record breaking temperatures possible.

2011-10-04T19:33:00.002-05:00

The summerlike conditions over southern Manitoba will continue Wednesday.. with even warmer temperatures expected. Gusty south to southeast winds up to 60 km/h will bring in unseasonably warm air from the Dakotas, with temperatures rising into the upper twenties over Winnipeg and the Red River valley. In fact, it's possible that some localities may touch the 30C mark Wednesday. In Winnipeg, a high of 28C is forecast which is very close to the day's record high of 28.3C set on Oct 5 1943. If Winnipeg hits 28C tomorrow, it will be the warmest October day in the city since Oct 1 1992 when we hit 30.5C. Note however that the record warmth will be accompanied by strong southerly winds up the valley which will gust to 60 km/h by afternoon. The unseasonably warm conditions, accompanied by low humidity and strong winds will create dangerous fire conditions.. and in fact a fire weather watch has been posted for the Red River valley in North Dakota.

Awesome autumn continues..

2011-10-02T13:25:00.002-05:00

An upper ridge of high pressure over central North America will continue to bring dry and warm weather over southern Manitoba through the first week of October. Temperatures will climb into the mid 20s much of the week, some 10 degrees above the normal high of 15 for early October. The warm dry start to October this year is similar to last year which saw summerlike conditions through the Thanksgiving weekend. For today, temperatures in southern Manitoba will range from the 20 degree mark through the Interlake region to 24C along the TransCanada corridor and up to 27C near the US border. The good news is that winds today will be a lot lighter than Saturday's gusty values so conditions will be more comfortable and temperatures will feel warmer. Look for sunshine and highs in the 24-27C range the rest of the week over southern Manitoba, with increasing south winds again by Wednesday. Unsettled weather is expected by next weekend (Thanksgiving) with a few showers and cooler conditions moving in. Until then.. enjoy the fine fall weather!

After the deluge.. turning warm and dry through the end of September..

2011-09-21T20:34:00.002-05:00

After Tuesday's soaking rains which brought 25 to 75 mm of rain to the RRV, conditions will be turning dry and warmer the rest of this week through the weekend and into next week. A large upper ridge of high pressure will build over the Prairies bringing a prolonged stretch of sunny dry and warm weather over central Canada over the next week or so, including southern Manitoba. After a frosty night tonight, temperatures will rebound into the mid teens Thursday with light winds, then into the mid 20s over the weekend as warmer air spreads in. Long range models are indicating the dry and warm weather should continue over southern Manitoba through the end of the month. Fall officially arrives this Friday, so it looks like a nice warm and dry start to autumn. Enjoy!

Rain by Tuesday.. windy and warmer by end of week

2011-09-18T23:32:00.002-05:00

The new week will start off on a dry and mild note with sunshine and temperatures rising into the low to mid 20s. Unsettled weather however will move in overnight Monday into Tuesday with occasional rain and possible thunderstorms, along with gusty northwest winds and cooler temperatures. Models are hinting that rainfall may be heavy at times Tuesday over portions of southern Manitoba and the RRV, with 20-40 mm possible in some areas. This system is expected to clear out by Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure builds in over southern Manitoba. This will be followed by increasingly windy and warmer weather by the end of the week into the weekend as the ridge moves east and a return southerly flow sets up over southern Manitoba. Gusty south winds will allow temperatures to rise to above normal values in the mid 20s by Saturday. The autumnal equinox arrives this Friday the 23rd.

Widespread freeze tonight.. warmer weather for end of week into next week

2011-09-14T16:12:00.002-05:00

The first blast of fall like weather pushed into southern Manitoba yesterday, resulting in below normal temperatures, gusty north winds, lake effect precipitation and frost over parts of southern Manitoba this morning. Well below normal temperatures continued today with brisk northwest winds keeping temperatures only near 10C this afternoon. For tonight, a ridge of high pressure over Saskatchewan will build over southern Manitoba bringing clearing skies and light winds. This will lead to a widespread freeze over southern Manitoba by Thursday morning, with overnight lows of -1 to -4C forecast in most areas. (Downtown Winnipeg and areas along the MB lakeshores should escape the freeze tonight) The first frost over Winnipeg and the Red River valley usually isn't until the third week of September, so this year's first frost is arriving about a week earlier than normal. Sunny and milder weather will develop Thursday into Friday as the high pressure ridge pushes east and we get into a moderating southerly flow. A frontal system pushing in from the west threatens showers for Sunday.

Cold outbreak brings first lake effect of the season over southern Manitoba

2011-09-14T15:49:00.005-05:00

The first cold outbreak of the season brought some lake effect showers yesterday through last night into this morning off the Manitoba lakes, with a few narrow bands of significant precipitation to the southeast of the lakes. Most of the precipitation fell as rain thanks to the 18C lake waters, however precipitation was mixed at times with ice pellets or graupel and even some wet snowflurries in some areas. The radar image to the left shows a 6 hour precipitation accumulation between 3 am and 9 am, and nicely shows how the main lake effect bands were oriented, with a NNW flow of 330-340 degrees bringing narrow bands of precipitation off Lake Manitoba and Lake Winnipeg. The bands produced 5-15 mm of rain off Lake Manitoba through the High Bluff-Elm Creek areas, about 5 mm in the Pinawa region, and 10-15 mm near Fischer Branch. 850 temps of -4C were moving over 18C lake waters to produce the lake effect, which was generally cellular and disorganized during the day, becoming more pronounced overnight. The bands weakened during the day Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure built in from the west.

Falling temperatures, lake effect precipitation and frost.. fall weather pushing into southern Manitoba today..

2011-09-13T10:32:00.000-05:00

A cold front through central Manitoba this morning will push south today, ushering in a flow of unseasonably cold air from Northern Manitoba southward. This front will be accompanied by a few showers as it moves across southern Manitoba around midday today, followed by gusty northerly winds and falling temperatures this afternoon. The flow of colder air over the warm lake waters of the Manitoba lakes will likely set up some heavier bands of rainshowers off Lake Winnipeg and Lake Manitoba later today into tonight, with narrow bands of locally heavy precipitation possible mainly east and west of Winnipeg. Strong northerly winds of 50-70 km/h will also cause large waves and rising water levels along the south shores of the lakes today into tonight. Things should settle down Wednesday as high pressure drifts across southern Manitoba easing winds and weakening lake effect precipitation. This area of high pressure however will likely produce the season's first widespread frost across southern Manitoba Thursday morning with temperatures of 0 to -3C likely in many areas including the Red River valley.

Record heat possible today.. fall like weather arriving early next week..

2011-09-10T07:33:00.006-05:00

The long hot dry summer of 2011 continues today over southern Manitoba with another 30C+ day on tap.. our 4th in a row in Winnipeg, and the 23rd occurrence of 30C or more temperatures this year. Several record highs are likely again today over southern Manitoba, including Winnipeg where 1998's mark of 32.4C set on this date in 1998 is in jeopardy. Another summerlike day is expected Sunday with temperatures in the upper 20s, not quite as hot as today as we get into a light northeast flow of somewhat cooler air.

Big changes are on the way though as we get into Monday and Tuesday. A cold front will push through southern Manitoba Monday with clouds and a chance of showers, with gusty northwest winds developing bringing in cooler air. By Tuesday and Wednesday, high temperatures will only be in the low teens along with clouds and brisk northwest winds along with some lake effect showers off the Manitoba lakes. High pressure will build in by Wednesday and Thursday which will likely produce the season's first widespread frost to southern Manitoba. Moderating temperatures are expected by the end of the week into next weekend as temperatures return to more normal values for this time of year (around 20c). So enjoy the warm weekend.. this could be summer's last hurrah!

Beautiful first week of September ahead

2011-09-03T21:53:00.002-05:00

Cool unsettled weather over southern Manitoba today will give way to clearing skies and more pleasant conditions Sunday as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west. Temperatures Sunday will still be a couple degrees below normal for early September, but lighter winds and more sunshine will result in a more pleasant day than Saturday. The ridge will move east of the province on Labour Day resulting in a southerly flow of warmer temperatures in the low 20s for the last day of the holiday weekend. The rest of the week looks fabulous as an upper ridge builds over the Prairies allowing sunny skies and increasingly warmer air to build over southern Manitoba through the upcoming week. Look for sunny skies and mid 20C temperatures as the kids head back to school Wednesday with temperatures rising into the upper 20s to near 30C by Thursday and Friday. The summer of 2011 ain't over just yet!

5th driest summer on record at Winnipeg

2011-09-01T20:45:00.001-05:00

The summer of 2011 will go down as the 5th driest summer on record in Winnipeg since records began in 1873. The 93.0 mm of rain recorded at YWG airport from June through August was over 140 mm below the 3 month summer average of 235 mm, about 40% of normal. The summer was the driest since 2006 when 91.5 mm was recorded. The dry weather took hold by the last week of June, which carried through the driest July on record (10.0 mm) into a drier than normal August (37.5 mm) Between June 23rd and August 18th, there were no daily rainfalls greater than 5 mm at YWG airport as convective storms evaded the city, much to the delight of sun worshippers, but to the dismay of farmers who saw crops wither in the hot and dry weather. The dry weather however was not widespread over southern Manitoba. Southwest MB and the southern RRV experienced more normal amounts of rain during the summer, with the driest conditions mainly over the northern RRV and eastern MB.

Top 5 driest summers - Winnipeg (since 1873)

1. 1929 ........ 76.7 mm
2. 1886 ........ 77.2 mm
3. 1961 ........ 91.0 mm
4. 2006 ...... 91.5 mm
5. 2011 ....... 93.0 mm

Temperature wise, the summer of 2011 had a 3 month average of 19.5C.. about 1C above average (18.5C) and the warmest summer since 2006 (19.8c) The 19.5C summer average tied it for Winnipeg's 17th all time warmest summer. The bulk of the heat was during July and August which were 1.7C and 1.8C above normal respectively. The summer saw 19 days of 30C or more, including 8 in July and 9 in August. Cool spells were minor and fleeting, and were quickly replaced by sunny warmer weather. The hottest temperature was a record setting 37.2C on August 23rd, while the coolest was a 3.8C reading on June 9th.

Top 5 hottest summers in Winnipeg (since 1873)

1. 1988 ............ 21.0C
2. 1983 ............ 20.8C
3. 1961 ............ 20.4C
4. 1955 ............ 20.2C
5. 1963/1930 ....... 20.1C

Thunderstorms possible tonight.. cooler weather for start of September..

2011-08-31T10:23:00.002-05:00

August will be ending on a warm and muggy note, with morning clouds giving way to some afternoon sun along with humid conditions. A storm system developing over Montana will trigger a few thunderstorms over eastern SK and western MB later today into this evening, some possibly severe with damaging winds and large hail, along with a risk of isolated tornadoes. The system will sweep a cold front across southern MB tonight with showers and thunderstorms possible across the Red River valley through the Interlake regions. Cooler weather is on tap for the first few days of September behind this system.

Another 30C day on tap today.. showers possible Sunday

2011-08-25T06:52:00.007-05:00

30C temperatures will be returning to southern Manitoba today as southerly winds develop ahead of a trough of low pressure pushing across southern SK. For Winnipeg, today's high of 30-32C will be the 19th time this summer the city has hit the 30c mark.. the most 30c days in a summer since 2006 when we had 22 days of 30C or more. On average, Winnipeg sees 11 days of 30C weather between June and August but the past few summers have generally fallen short of that mark. In fact, this summer's 30C total will match the total number of 30C days for the past 3 summers combined! The following table lists the number of 30C days in Winnipeg (at YWG airport) since 2006.

30C days in Winnipeg - June through August

2011 ...... 19 (as of Aug 25th)
2010 ...... 11
2009 ....... 3
2008 ....... 5
2007 ....... 10
2006 ....... 22

Slightly cooler but sunny conditions are forecast for Friday and Saturday before some unsettled weather moves in for Sunday with showers and scattered thunderstorms possible over the Red River valley. Let's hope it materializes. Other than a 20 minute downpour of 21 mm during last Thursday's thunderstorm, rain events have been few and far between these past two months.

City sizzles through hottest day in 16 years..

2011-08-23T21:13:00.009-05:00

It was a torrid Tuesday over southern Manitoba as a southwest flow of hot dry air sent temperatures into the mid to upper thirties over the Red River valley. In Winnipeg, the mercury soared to a record breaking 37.2C by 2:30 pm, beating the previous high for Aug 23rd of 36.7C set in 1952. Not only was this the hottest day of the summer, it was also Winnipeg's hottest temperature since June 17 1995 when the city hit 37.8C. The record heat today was accompanied by very dry conditions (see YWG 22Z sounding), with dewpoints dropping to the 10C mark by mid afternoon giving humidity values of only 20%. At my Rob's Obs station in Charleswood, a maximum temperature of 38.0C was reached at 2:49 pm today, the hottest temperature at my site since it was started in 2001. (see my station's temperature trace above)

Luckily the record heat will be short lived. A cold front was pushing through southern Manitoba Tuesday evening dropping temperatures into the 20s accompanied by gusty northwest winds. This front will usher in a cooler airmass for Wednesday with temperatures some 10 degrees cooler than today.

30C weather set to return to southern MB.. record heat possible Tuesday..

2011-08-21T12:02:00.003-05:00

If the past few days had you thinking that the summer of 2011 was over.. think again. Mid summer heat is set to return to southern Manitoba Monday and Tuesday with temperatures climbing well into the thirties. In fact, Tuesday could see some record highs across the Red River valley as temperatures soar into the 35-38C range. Winnipeg's record high Tuesday (23rd) is 36.7C from 1952, and it's possible we may come close to that mark. Conditions are favourable for very warm air to surface Tuesday as the Red River valley gets a southwest flow tapping a hot and dry airmass moving across the Prairies. Typically these are the set-ups that usually give Winnipeg and the Red River Valley its hottest temperatures. Winnipeg's hottest temperature so far this summer was a 34.4C reading on July 19th.. so Tuesday has the potential to be the hottest day of the summer. After a brief cooldown Wednesday, 30C weather is possible later in the week. More beach weather ahead as the fabulous summer of 2011 continues!

Severe thunderstorms roll through Winnipeg/ northern RRV

2011-08-18T23:15:00.011-05:00

After dodging thunderstorms much of the summer, a line of severe thunderstorms pushed across Winnipeg Thursday evening, bringing heavy rain, intense lightning, strong winds and marble to toonie size hail to parts of the city. The line of thunderstorms developed northwest of the city Thursday evening and pushed across the city between 8:50 and 9:30 pm preceded by an impressive shelf cloud ahead of the storm (see photos). The storms brought some welcome rain of 15-25 mm across much of the city including 21 mm at YWG airport.. the heaviest rainfall of the summer, and the first daily rainfall over 5 mm at the airport since June 22nd. The line of storms was triggered by a cold front pushing across southern MB, which will usher in cooler weather for the weekend. Winnipeg hit 31C Thursday.. the 16th occurrence of 30C plus temperatures this summer.

Photos above courtesy of Winnipeg Free Press (top) and Weather Network (lower 3) See additional photos from CTV Winnipeg.

Thunderstorms developing through Interlake.. severe thunderstorm watch in effect into this evening

2011-08-18T17:44:00.003-05:00

A cold front over western Manitoba late this afternoon is triggering a line of thunderstorms mainly northwest of the Red River valley through the western Interlake areas late today, with some potentially severe storms developing. (see 5:50 pm radar image left) A severe thunderstorm watch has been posted for much of southern Manitoba including Winnipeg and the Red River valley for the potential for severe thunderstorms into this evening as the cold front approaches. It looks like the bulk of storms will pass to the north of Winnipeg through the Interlake region, but the potential is there for isolated storms to develop further south. This front will usher in a cooler airmass for the next few days with highs only in the low 20s through the weekend. Warmer weather is expected to return to southern MB early next week.

Strong westerly winds to buffet Manitoba lakes this afternoon into Wednesday morning

2011-08-16T13:35:00.005-05:00

A cold front pushing across southern Manitoba today will usher in a westerly flow of drier and cooler air this afternoon into tonight. West winds gusting to 60 or 70 km/h are likely this afternoon into this evening across the Red River valley as drier air pushes in from the west (see real time wind readings from Winnipeg airport). Strong wind warnings have been posted over the Lake Manitoba and southern Lake Winnipeg marine areas for sustained westerly to northwest winds of 30 knots later today into tonight, with west to northwest gales of 40-45 knots forecast over the north basin of Lake Winnipeg by tonight. These strong winds will cause already high lake levels to rise another 0.5 to 1 metre on the east and south side of the lakes, with waves of 1-2 metres on top of that. See real time lake levels for Manitoba (click here for Victoria Beach or Lk Wpg north basin), and here for latest Manitoba marine observations.

Showers and thunderstorms overnight into Tuesday..

2011-08-15T07:18:00.005-05:00

Here we go again.. another weather system will be pushing into southern Manitoba tonight into Tuesday spreading showers and thunderstorms into the region. The big question is.. will Winnipeg finally see some significant rainfall out of this or will precipitation skirt the city as it's done the past 6 weeks or so? At Winnipeg airport, only 20 mm of rain has fallen since June 23rd, with no daily rainfall greater than 5 mm in that time. (note that some areas of the city have had more rain) The last thunderstorm to hit the airport was back on July 4th. So it's been a long stretch of dodging convective weather systems over the northern RRV. Will this next round be the same story? For tonight, thunderstorms are expected to develop over North Dakota and southwest Manitoba, some potentially severe, which are forecast to spread into the RRV overnight into Tuesday. Some of the rain could be heavy with local amounts of 20-40 mm possible in thunderstorms. The unsettled weather is expected to push east of the RRV later Tuesday with breezy and cooler conditions Tuesday night into Wednesday. Hit or miss for Winnipeg? Let us know in Rob's Obs latest poll!

Another chance of showers/thunderstorms mainly south of Winnipeg tonight.. nice weekend shaping up with more dry warm weather into early next week..

2011-08-11T10:43:00.003-05:00

A weak system tracking through the Dakotas will bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms later today into tonight mainly near and south of the international border. Scattered thunderstorms are possible over the Red River valley, but the more organized activity is expected mainly south of the border, as has been the case most of the summer. Sunny and warm weather is expected over southern Manitoba for the weekend into early next week, with temperature climbing to the 30C mark once again by Sunday. Great weather for beach lovers, but not for farmers in the northern RRV who are desperately looking for some significant rainfall.

Severe thunderstorms over southwest Manitoba Sunday evening.. showers/storms bypass Winnipeg/northern RRV yet again..

2011-08-08T11:54:00.010-05:00

Some stunning images sent to the Weather Network of locally severe thunderstorms that affected southwest Manitoba last evening. The left image shows a shelf cloud passing over Oak Lake, MB which produced strong wind gusts, heavy downpours, and quarter size hail. The right image is a beautiful shot from Virden of mammatus clouds being underlit by a setting sun. Mammatus cloud sometimes accompany tornadic storms, and this cell did indeed produce a brief tornado just east of Virden Saturday evening. The strongest storms generally moved from the Transcanada highway near the SK border down towards the southern RRV last night, once again bypassing Winnipeg and the northern RRV. About 5-15 mm of rain was recorded in storms last night over the southern Red River valley.

These storms come from the same system that pounded southern Saskatchewan Saturday with some exceptionally heavy rain and hail north and east of Regina. Hail up to a foot deep fell on Highway 6 north of Regina Saturday afternoon (image left) which disrupted travel in the area. 50-70 mm of rain flooded areas just east of Regina along with hail and local funnel clouds.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms possible tonight.. cooler weather moving in Monday

2011-08-07T15:52:00.003-05:00

A cold front over southern Saskatchewan will push eastward across southern Manitoba tonight. This front will trigger some showers and thunderstorms over western Manitoba this evening.. some possibly severe.. before they move into the Red River valley overnight. Rainfall amounts are not likely to be heavy as the band of showers will be fairly short lived and fast moving, but local amounts of 5-10 mm with up to 20 mm in thunderstorms are possible. The line of showers will move east of the RRV overnight with cooler weather on tap Monday along with clouds, brisk NW winds and a chance of showers. Temperatures are only expected to be in the low 20s over the next couple of days. Drier and warmer weather is expected Wednesday before another chance of showers Thursday. Overall, it looks like temperatures will be averaging near to slightly below normal over southern Manitoba over the next week or so. (Ignore the eternally optimistic warm and sunny Day 6-7 forecast.. it has a warm and dry bias and fails to capture cooling trends properly)

Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall south of the border tonight into Saturday.. flash flood watch in effect for North Dakota

2011-08-05T16:43:00.003-05:00

A low pressure area will track across North Dakota tonight into Saturday, bringing widespread thunderstorms with some heavy rainfall likely generally near and south of the international border. Local rainfall amounts of 50-75 mm are possible in these areas overnight into Saturday, and flash flood watches are in effect for much of northern ND. There will be a sharp cutoff to the rain north of the border with little rain expected over the northern Red River valley including Winnipeg. This will be the latest in a series of convective weather systems that have brought thunderstorms and heavier rainfall over the southern RRV into North Dakota over the past few weeks. While the northern RRV struggles with very dry conditions since the end of June, it's been a different story south of the border where rainfall has averaged above normal in July in many areas.

Hot humid day on tap.. strong thunderstorms possible this afternoon/evening?

2011-08-01T09:10:00.006-05:00

Hot and more humid conditions will spread over southern MB today ahead of a trough of low pressure through Saskatchewan. Afternoon temperatures will reach the low thirties with dewpoints climbing into the uncomfortable low 20s today. This will send humidex values close to the 40C mark this afternoon across the RRV, and thus a humidex advisory has been issued for the area including Winnipeg. The big question is what will happen later this afternoon into this evening as the frontal trough approaches from the west. This trough will encounter the hot and humid airmass over southern MB to trigger some scattered thunderstorms later today.. some of which may be severe with heavy rain, hail and strong winds possible. There is even a risk of isolated tornadoes with any discrete supercells that develop. At this point, the best chance for convective development will be over the RRV, and SE MB into ND.. but hopefully, some weaker storms fire up in the RRV to give us some much needed rainfall. Will we miss out again, or will we finally see some rain today? Stay tuned..

11:00 am update: A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for all of southern Manitoba including Winnipeg for the potential for severe thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening.

Winnipeg sets mark for driest July on record..

2011-08-01T07:42:00.004-05:00

The hot and dry weather of the past month has resulted in the driest July on record in Winnipeg since records began almost 140 years ago in 1872. Only 10.0 mm of rain was recorded at Winnipeg airport in July 2011, beating the previous driest July of 2006 at 10.5 mm. Normal July rainfall in Winnipeg is around 70 mm so rainfall this month was a meager 14% of normal. Rainfall was a little higher in other parts of the city in July including downtown (17.8 mm at the Forks) and northern sections (20-25 mm over North Kildonan/E St Paul areas) due to locally heavier showers and thunderstorms earlier in the month. But southern and western parts of the city have been the driest with only 8-10 mm recorded in July along the south perimeter.

The dry weather has been the result of a split in weather systems across the RRV this past month, with the jet stream bringing synoptic systems and significant rainfall across the central Prairies, while scattered thunderstorms further south have been tracking mainly south and west of the RRV through Saskatchewan into the Dakotas (see Prairie precip anomaly map above). The result has been a lack of precipitation events especially over the northern RRV, Steinbach and the Whiteshell areas. This is in sharp contrast to the start of the growing season that saw cool and wet conditions through May and early June across the region. The dry weather now has become a serious concern for farmers whose crops have not developed deep enough root systems to tap into more plentiful soil moisture deeper down in the earth.

The southern Red River valley was not quite as dry in July, being grazed by some thunderstorm complexes tracking through North Dakota. Areas from Morris to Emerson saw around 50 mm in July, while heavier amounts were recorded south of the border including Grand Forks at 67 mm, and Fargo at 133 mm.

Some July rainfall totals included..

Winnipeg airport..... 10.0 mm
Winnipeg Forks ...... 17.8 mm
Charleswood ........... 14.0 mm /Rob's Obs/
Brady landfill ........... 9 mm
Oak Bluff ................. 9 mm
St Vital .................. 14 mm
Whyte Ridge ............ 20 mm
N. Kildonan .............. 20 mm
E St Paul .................. 24 mm

Starbuck .................. 8 mm
Steinbach ................. 9 mm
Sanford .................... 10 mm
Portage ................... 14 mm
Pinawa .................... 16 mm
Selkirk ..................... 17 mm
St Pierre ................... 26 mm
Winkler .................... 35 mm
Carman ................... 38 mm
Morden ................... 44 mm
Morris ...................... 47 mm
Emerson ................... 55 mm
Grand Forks ............ 67 mm
Fargo ........................ 133 mm

Gimli ......................... 70 mm
Arborg ..................... 57 mm
Brandon .................. 65 mm
Dauphin .................. 153 mm
The Pas .................. 141 mm

Rain bypasses Winnipeg/northern RRV again.. driest July on record within reach at Winnipeg..

2011-07-27T09:33:00.009-05:00

A system tracking through the Dakotas brought an area of showers and scattered thunderstorms over the Northern Plain States yesterday.. but once again, the bulk of the rainfall was confined south of the border, with precipitation once again bypassing Winnipeg and much of the northern RRV and southeast MB (there were some brief showers over parts of the city last night with 2 or 3 mm, but it appears to have missed the airport) Some areas of southwest MB did pick up some rainfall yesterday, with general amounts of 5-10 mm near the US border and southern RRV, with heavier amounts through the Swan River area into the northern interlake. However, most other areas of southern MB remained dry yesterday.. a growing concern for area farmers who are looking for some much needed rainfall. After a wet start to the growing season in the RRV, the taps starting shutting down in June.. with very little rainfall recorded in July, especially over Winnipeg and the northern RRV. (see above graph showing cumulative precipitation at Winnipeg airport over the past 90 days)

In Winnipeg, only 9.5 mm of rain has been recorded this month. If we get less than 1 mm of rain over the next 4 days, this will go down as Winnipeg's driest July since records began in 1872 (currently July 2006 at 10.5 mm) Will it happen? Things look dry through Friday, but there is chance of some scattered shower or thunderstorm activity Saturday as increasingly warm and more humid air moves into southern MB. At this time of year, it doesn't take much to get more than 1 mm of rain even with some passing showers, so it's not a given that we'll break the record. But given the track record of storms over the past few weeks, the potential is certainly there. Stay tuned..

Another chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday night..

2011-07-25T19:28:00.002-05:00

A low pressure system developing over Montana is producing scattered thunderstorms over the western Dakotas this evening, and these are expected to continue overnight as warm and unstable air push north. Some of these storms are likely to spread into SW MB overnight with locally heavy rain possible. On Tuesday, these thunderstorms will push eastward and weaken bringing cloud and a few showers to the Red river valley by afternoon. Additional thunderstorms are expected to fire up over SE Saskatchewan and western ND late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Most of the strongest storms are expected to stay in North Dakota where severe storms are possible, but some thunderstorms may track across the border bringing locally heavy rain to portions of the RRV. It remains to be seen if this area of precipitation will get into Winnipeg as models hint the heaviest rainfall may occur south of the city Tuesday. Will Winnipeg miss out again.. or will we finally see our first significant rainfall of the month? Stay tuned..

Rain bypasses Winnipeg to the south.. dry spell continues..

2011-07-23T10:33:00.003-05:00

The rain that was supposed to have spread over the Red River valley this morning has tracked further south.. bypassing much of southern MB and denying us some much need rain. Strong thunderstorms with high winds and heavy rain pushed across North Dakota last night, but very little precipitation made its way across the border with minimal amounts of 2-5 mm recorded along the US border including the southern RRV. There is still a chance of some showers and isolated thunderstorms later today as a trough of low pressure pushes across southern Manitoba later this afternoon, but the band of showers will be narrow and short lived with minor amounts. The lack of rain today will be a disappointment to those who were looking forward to some replenishing of the rapidly depleting soil moisture levels in the region. Only 7 mm of rain has fallen in Winnipeg so far this July, a month which normally sees about 70 mm.

Some much needed rain on the way..

2011-07-22T08:32:00.003-05:00

After a week of hot temperatures, and yesterday's dry and windy weather.. things are getting parched in the Red river valley. Winnipeg has seen only 7 mm of rain this month, with many storms bypassing the city to the north, west or south of us. Finally though, it looks like a system moving through North Dakota Saturday will bring a widespread area of rain that should give Winnipeg and the RRV its first significant rainfall in a month. Showers and thunderstorms will develop over southeast SK and the western Dakotas later today into this evening then spread into SW Manitoba overnight. Precipitation is expected to move into Winnipeg and the RRV Saturday morning, with 10-20 mm possible by Saturday night. Embedded thunderstorms may give locally heavier rainfalls of 20-40 mm in some areas. The unsettled weather will move out Saturday night with drier weather by Sunday.

Peak of heat wave expected today.. thunderstorms likely Wednesday with cooler and more comfortable conditions by Thursday..

2011-07-19T08:11:00.003-05:00

The heat wave which has been affecting southern Manitoba since Saturday is expected to peak today with afternoon temperatures of 35-38C forecast, along with humidex values in the mid 40s. In Winnipeg, highs of 36C are forecast which would be a record for the day (currently 34.4C in 1967), and likely the city's hottest day since Aug 19 2003 when we hit 35.9C. Today should be the hottest day of the heat wave before a cold front pushes through Wednesday bringing some welcome showers and thunderstorms that will likely be accompanied by locally heavy rainfall. Cooler and more comfortable conditions will follow in the wake of the front by Thursday with seasonable temperatures and lower humidity.

The heat is on! Winnipeg hottest spot in country with 34C reading.. Heat wave to continue into early next week..

2011-07-16T18:09:00.006-05:00

The heat wave has officially started in southern Manitoba with numerous localities hitting 32c or higher today. Hot spot honours went to Winnipeg with an afternoon maximum of 34.1C at YWG airport, and 34.5C at the Forks.. the hottest temperatures in Canada today. Humidex values touched 40C this afternoon as dewpoints rose to 20C in the city.. uncomfortable, but not as oppressive as the 24C dewpoints Winnipeg recorded on June 30th that resulted in peak humidex values of 44c. The hot weather will continue through the weekend into early next week with daytime highs of 32-35c likely through Tuesday. Luckily, humidity values will be somewhat tolerable over the next couple of days as some drier air from northern Manitoba works its way across the Interlake and northern RRV. Dewpoints on Sunday and Monday are forecast to drop into the mid teens in Winnipeg.. quite comfortable compared to the oppressive 22-25c dewpoints being recorded south of the border. By Tuesday however, the higher dewpoints will be spreading back into southern MB with humidex values likely reaching the low to mid 40s across the RRV. Current indications are that a cold front will push across southern MB Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms, followed by cooler and more comfortable conditions later in the week.

Chilly morning.. building heat wave expected by late week

2011-07-12T07:18:00.002-05:00

It was a chilly Tuesday morning over southern Manitoba with temperatures falling well into the single digits overnight. At Winnipeg airport, temperatures fell to 6C this morning, the coolest temperature of the month so far. Temperatures will warm up nicely today under sunny skies with afternoon highs around 25C. Another chilly night is in store tonight with lows near 10C, but then a significant warming trend is set to develop by mid to late week as a large upper ridge of high pressure builds over the central continent allowing hot air from the United States to flow north. Temperatures over 30C are likely by the weekend into next week along with increasing humidity levels that will likely send humidex values over 40C. There may be some scattered thunderstorm activity as we get into the building heat later this week, but overall hot and humid conditions are expected through the weekend with long range models hinting that the heat wave may continue through the middle of next week. So enjoy those comfortably cool temperatures while they last.. heat and humidity is on the way!

Severe thunderstorms possible over southern MB later today into tonight..

2011-07-08T08:56:00.004-05:00

A low pressure trough moving across the Prairies today is forecast to trigger another round of thunderstorms over southern SK and southern MB this afternoon into tonight, with some severe thunderstorms likely in some areas. The best focus for severe storms today will be over southeast SK into SW Manitoba later this afternoon into this evening where large hail and damaging winds will be the main threat with storms that develop, along with the chance of some isolated tornadoes. These storms will likely push eastward into southern MB tonight with a risk of large hail, strong winds, and heavy rainfall as storms move through. Stay tuned on this developing severe weather situation..

Severe thunderstorms possible today over southern MB..

2011-07-04T09:37:00.002-05:00

A cold front over western MB will interact with a warm and humid airmass over southern MB today to produce scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, a few likely severe especially over the Red River valley and eastern MB into NW Ontario. The main threat with the strongest storms will be golf ball size hail and 100 km/h wind gusts, which were reported with this system yesterday in Saskatchewan. In addition, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out given the potential for supercells today. Stay tuned on today's severe weather threat..

Steamy last day of June.. possible severe storms this evening?

2011-06-30T09:21:00.002-05:00

It will be a steamy end to June as hot and muggy conditions spread over the Red River valley with temperatures climbing into the low 30s, and dewpoints in the uncomfortable 21-24C range. This will produce humidex values around 40C this afternoon which has prompted a humidex advisory to be issued for the RRV and southeast MB. Late today, a cold front will push through which may produce some strong to severe thunderstorms.. with large hail and damaging winds as the main threats. There is considerable uncertainty still as to if and where these storms will pop up.. so stay tuned today as the situation unfolds.

Warming up this week.. first 30C of the year likely by Thursday..

2011-06-27T14:02:00.003-05:00

After a rather cool start to the week, things will be on an upswing this week as an upper ridge of high pressure builds over the Prairies. This will finally allow warmer air over the States to finally push northward into the southern Prairies, with the summer's first 30C readings likely by Thursday.. the last day of June. Before then, look for a cool night tonight as skies clear allowing temperatures to fall into the single digits by Tuesday morning. Tuesday will see sunshine with some afternoon clouds and afternoon temperatures of 22C. Southerly winds will be on the increase for Wednesday with gusty south winds of 40 gusting to 60 km/h pushing temperatures up to the 27C mark in Winnipeg. Thursday looks like the warmest day of the week with temperatures of 30-33C expected over southern MB.. including Winnipeg. If so, it will the first 30C reading of the year in Winnipeg.. almost a year to the day we reached our first 30C last year (a high of 30.2c on July 1st) A cold front will push through Thursday night with the potential for showers and thunderstorms, ushering in cooler but seasonable weather for the weekend.

Heavy rain over portions of Red River valley and southeast Manitoba

2011-06-22T10:32:00.003-05:00

A storm system over the northern Plains brought an area of widespread rain over the Red River valley and SE Manitoba overnight into Wednesday morning, with some locally heavy bands of rain south and east of Winnipeg. In Winnipeg, rainfall amounts through Wednesday morning showed a significant north-south delineation across the city with about 5 mm along the north perimeter to 25 mm over the south perimeter.

Unofficial rainfall amounts through 11 am Wednesday morning (amounts since 6 pm Tuesday evening. Data from MB ag-weather, CWB Weatherbug and private stations)

Winnipeg stations..

North Perimeter ..... 6 mm
McPhillips ................. 10 mm
Charleswood ............ 12 mm
Whyte Ridge............. 18 mm
Oak Bluff .................. 19 mm
St Vital ..................... 20 mm
Brady Landfill .......... 25 mm
St Norbert ................. 29 mm

St Adolphe ................. 29 mm
Sanford ....................... 30 mm
Steinbach ................... 50 mm
St Pierre ..................... 51 mm
Morris ........................ 58 mm
Letellier ..................... 49 mm
Winkler ...................... 48 mm

Storm system over northern plains to bring rain to southeast Manitoba..

2011-06-21T15:24:00.002-05:00

A strong storm system over southeastern South Dakota will track through Minnesota over the next 24 hours bringing a wide swath of rain over the North Dakota and northern Minnesota. The heaviest rain is expected to fall near or just south of the US border with totals of 25 to 50 mm by Wednesday evening. Some of this rain will spread into southeast Manitoba tonight into Wednesday with 15-25 mm possible over the southern RRV and southeast Manitoba (Steinbach, Sprague, etc) There will be a sharp cutoff on the northern extent of this rain shield.. which will likely set up roughly along the TransCanada highway. Little or no rain is expected north of this line, while areas to the south will see some precipitation, heavier as you go towards the international border. Winnipeg will lie on the dividing line with little or no rain expected north of the city.. and perhaps 5-10 mm just to the south Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Unsettled pattern this week..

2011-06-14T12:50:00.003-05:00

Generally warm but unsettled conditions are expected over southern Manitoba this week as a large upper low pressure system settles over western Canada. This will put southern Manitoba in a southwest upper flow of unstable air through the rest of the week with periodic showers and thunderstorms as impulses move along the upper flow. Unfortunately, it looks like southwest Manitoba will bear the brunt of the heaviest precipitation during this period, with an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms the further west you go. The Red River valley will be somewhat drier with a mix of clouds and sunshine the rest of the week, and a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. Due to the relatively slow motion of these storms, and the higher dewpoints advecting into southern Manitoba, rainfall will be very heavy with some of these storms, with local rainfall amounts of 25 to 50 mm, and in some cases higher amounts with training cells. This will put waterlogged SW Manitoba in a highly vulnerable situation depending on where the heaviest convection fires up.

More rain on the way over southern MB..

2011-06-11T07:20:00.001-05:00

It will be a nice start to the weekend today over southern MB with plenty of sunshine, light winds, low humidity and temperatures around 23C this afternoon. But in what is becoming an all too familiar pattern this year, the nice weather will not last long. A system pushing in from Montana will spread another round of showers and thunderstorms into southern MB Sunday, reaching SW Manitoba in the morning, and the Red River valley by late afternoon. General rainfall amounts of 10-20 mm are expected across southern MB Sunday through Sunday night into Monday, with thunderstorms bringing locally heavy rain of 25 to 40 mm in some areas. This will spell more bad news for the Souris and Assiniboine watersheds which are completely saturated and unable to take any more water. Wet weather will move into the Interlake regions Monday with generally drier weather for much of the upcoming week.

Another soaker for Southwest Manitoba..

2011-06-08T16:34:00.007-05:00

As bad as this spring has been over the Red River valley, it's been even worse to our west. Southwest Manitoba and Southeast SK have bore the brunt of several major rain systems that have tracked across the Northern Plains states over the past 4 to 5 weeks. The result has been some amazing rainfall totals over SW Manitoba that have caused numerous problems with record high water levels on lakes and rivers, and a virtual wipeout of any crop this year for area farmers. Tuesday saw another 25 to 50 mm of rain across much of Southwest MB with the heaviest swath from the Virden area to Minnedosa where up to 55 mm was recorded. This is on top of at least 3 other major rain storms in the past 4 weeks that have brought 100-150 mm of rain over the area into the Interlake regions. In Souris, another 25 mm of rain fell yesterday bringing the total since May 1st to a whopping 216 mm, about 300% of normal.

Other rainfall totals since May 1st include.. (data from MB Ag-wx network)

Minnedosa............ 190 mm
Hamiota ............... 187 mm
Virden .................. 181 mm
Pierson ................. 175 mm
Brandon ............... 157 mm

A persistent storm track across the northern plains has resulted in a very wet start to the growing season over much of the southern Prairies, especially over southeast SK and southwest MB where over 200 mm of rain has fallen since April 1st (see map image left). In sharp contrast, things are very dry by the time you get over the central and northern Prairies with precipitation less than 40% of normal over central and northern Alberta (image right). (Maps courtesy of Drought Watch)

Severe thunderstorms bring large hail and heavy rain over SW Manitoba, north of Winnipeg..

2011-06-02T21:55:00.012-05:00

Severe thunderstorms affected much of southern Manitoba today as a warm front pushed north from North Dakota spreading moist and very unstable air ahead of it. Severe storms developed early this morning over SE Saskatchewan and SW Manitoba producing baseball size hail near Shilo and Hartney MB as well as very heavy rain. Storms moved into the Red River valley this afternoon, with a severe storm developing just northwest of Winnipeg around 2 pm. This storm brought golf ball size hail that produced extensive car damage (photos above) at the Bel Acres golf course just north of Winnipeg (see video of hailstorm) The storm continued northeast bringing large hail and very heavy rain to Stonewall, Tuelon and Winnipeg Beach areas. In Selkirk, the storm produced 37 mm of rain in only 20 minutes between 2:40 and 3 pm.

Severe thunderstorms affecting SW Manitoba this morning.. showers/tstorms spreading into RRV this afternoon into tonight

2011-06-02T11:21:00.004-05:00

Severe thunderstorms have developed over SW Manitoba this morning in advance of a warm front pushing north from North Dakota. This front is pushing in very unstable air aloft which has triggered strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail and very heavy rain across SW Manitoba. Quarter to golf ball size hail has been reported in some localities with 25 to 45 mm of torrential rain falling within 1 or 2 hours, in areas that are still recovering from 50 to 75 mm of rain from earlier this week. The severe thunderstorms will continue this morning with additional showers and thunderstorms spreading into the Red River valley this afternoon into tonight. Some storms may continue to be severe with locally large hail and very heavy rainfall. Stay tuned..

Scattered showers and thundershowers today.. a respite Sunday then more rain Monday into Tuesday..

2011-05-28T07:24:00.006-05:00

Scattered showers and thundershowers are expected to develop today across southern Manitoba as an unstable airmass settles over the area. Partly sunny skies this morning will give way to convective cloud development as temperatures climb into the mid teens by the noon hour, setting the stage for scattered showers and thundershowers this afternoon. Any thundershowers will be fairly weak due to a lack of strong dynamics today, however small hail and brief downpours are possible. Conditions are even favourable for some cold core funnel clouds to develop today (with or without a thundershower) however these will be isolated and should not have enough energy to reach the ground. Things will dissipate this evening as we lose daytime heating, leading to drier weather Sunday with no precipitation expected.. welcome news for the large outdoor events planned tomorrow (including U2 concert and Teddy Bear picnic)

The dry weather will be short lived however as a stronger storm system develops over the Northern high plains and into southern Manitoba by Monday. This will bring a more general rainfall across southern MB Monday into Tuesday, with 10-20 mm possible for Winnipeg and the RRV, and heavier amounts for 20-40 mm likely across southwest MB into the interlake areas. This, in combination with gusty north winds will bring additional high water and flooding concerns to the Lake Manitoba area, and will be yet another setback for area farmers who desperately need a prolonged stretch of dry and warm weather to accelerate seeding operations. Long range guidance is hinting at warmer weather moving in by the end of next week, that hopefully signals the start of a trend to more summerlike weather finally moving into southern MB.

Joplin.. a terrible reminder of what a violent tornado can do in an urban center..

2011-05-23T17:14:00.016-05:00

The Joplin tornado disaster should serve as a wake-up call for us in the Prairies as to what an F4 or F5 tornado is capable of doing when it moves into a populated area. By strong tornado standards, the Joplin tornado was relatively short lived.. lasting only about 20 minutes with a track length of about 20 km (often, violent tornadoes can track 100 km or more and last 1 or 2 hours or more). But much of those 20 km were right over a densely populated and commercialized area of a moderately sized city, leading to the deadliest single tornado event in the US in over 60 years. Even with today's technology and advanced warnings, these violent tornadoes are not survivable unless you're in a reinforced shelter, or underground. Although rare, F4 or F5 tornadoes can and do occur in the Prairies. We're fortunate that we have a lot of open space that's sparsely populated.. but it only takes one violent tornado hitting a populated area to do what we saw in Joplin. F4 tornadoes have occurred in Regina and Edmonton, and an F5 tornado struck just west of Winnipeg in Elie in 2007. The odds are remote, but they're not zero. It can happen here..

Wet weather moving in over holiday weekend..

2011-05-18T07:19:00.004-05:00

Beautiful summer like weather will continue through Friday in southern MB with sunshine and temperatures in the mid 20s. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like the nice weather will hold through the upcoming May 24 holidays as an area of low pressure over the southwest US tracks into the Dakotas and across southern MB over the weekend. This system will spread an area of showers and isolated thunderstorms into southern MB on Saturday which will continue Saturday night into Sunday. Rainfall amounts from this system will depend on how much convection fires up Saturday but preliminary guidance indicates 15 to 25 mm of rain is possible over portions of southern MB and North Dakota over the weekend. Rain from this system will move out Sunday night with drier but cooler weather for holiday Monday.

Great stretch of weather this week..

2011-05-15T15:57:00.003-05:00

It looks like Mother Nature is making amends this week after delivering a prolonged stretch of cloudy, cool and damp weather last week. A large area of high pressure over southern MB has brought a gloriously sunny weekend to the province with temperatures ranging from 19C in the south to 25C in the north. This area of high pressure will move slowly eastward over the next few days maintaining sunny skies and temperatures in the low 20s over southern MB. The good news is that high pressure in the upper atmosphere over Manitoba will block weather systems from affecting southern MB through the entire week maintaining dry and warm weather through Friday.. welcome news for the ongoing flood-fighting efforts. There are indications that the weather will turn more unsettled over the May 24 holiday weekend with some shower activity moving in .. especially for the latter half.. but this is still a ways ahead to be more specific. Until then.. get out and enjoy the much overdue stretch of sunny warm weather!

Cool and unsettled rest of week.. turning sunnier and warmer over weekend into next week..

2011-05-11T10:31:00.000-05:00

Cool and cloudy weather will dominate southern MB through Friday as a stubborn area of low pressure over NW Ontario circulates clouds and northwest winds over southern MB. As a result, temperatures will be some 10 degrees below normal for this time of year, which are now approaching 20C for daytime highs. Little additional precipitation is expected through Friday, although there may be some light showers or drizzle from time to time, with even a stray snowflurry possible Friday morning. The good news is that models are indicating a significant clearing tend for the weekend into next week, with temperatures warming to near or even above normal values next week. That will translate to temperatures in the 20s over southern MB along with more prolonged sunshine that we've been seeing of late, and gusty south winds at times, some welcome news that will help start drying out the excessively moist soil conditions over southern MB. We need it..

Unsettled weather moving in Sunday night.. showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain possible

2011-05-07T18:37:00.002-05:00

Today's scattered shower and thunderstorm activity over the Red River valley was a prelude to what looks to be an active period of weather coming up over southern Manitoba. A strong storm system is forecast to move into South Dakota late Sunday which will draw up a moist and unstable airmass northward. Shower and scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to develop over North Dakota and move into southern MB by late Sunday into Sunday night. Some of the rain could be heavy at times with amounts of 15-25 mm possible over portions of southern MB by Monday morning, including parts of the Red River valley. This system will be slow moving and will continue to generate showers and scattered thunderstorms over the northern plains and southern MB Tuesday into Wednesday. Of concern will be rainfall over this period, as river levels remain high across southern MB. Since much of this rainfall will be convective in nature, it will be difficult to pinpoint which areas will receive the heaviest rain and how much at this point.. but stay tuned as this situation develops.

EC predicting a hot dry summer.. or are they?

2011-05-05T20:03:00.019-05:00

Environment Canada's preliminary 3 month summer outlook was issued May 1st, garnering some enthusiastic media headlines across the country about how EC was proclaiming a hot dry summer across the country. Stock up on the sunscreen and invest in that inground pool! This summer will be a scorcher according to the headlines. Unfortunately, this was more media hype than reality when taking a closer look at what EC's summer outlooks were really showing..

The image to the left is the outlook map that caused all the excitement. It shows most of Canada glowing red.. like some great fireball had landed on the country and oozed red hot lava all over the country. Only the coasts would be spared from this glowing fireball of a summer, and an inexplicable patch of coolness over southern Hudson Bay. Well, if the map is mostly red, it must mean a hot summer, right? Well, not really.

Let's take a look at the more revealing probabilistic forecasts from the very same model output.

This chart breaks down the odds of a warmer than normal, near normal, and cooler than normal summer for country, in increments of 10% probabilities. It is a far more revealing product than the grossly simplified image above and tells us a lot more information. For example, this map shows that the far north has the greatest chance of seeing an above normal summer, while it's not as likely over the south. It also shows a greater chance of a "near normal" summer over Eastern Canada, and cooler than normal over the West coast. Everywhere else, it's a tossup. This is a very different interpretation from the original map which showed virtually all of Canada above normal. This more detailed chart is known as the probabilistic forecast, and is a far more valid product than the oversimplified and misleading deterministic product that is so misinterpreted by the media and public. Simply put, the deterministic map is a poor reflection of the probabilistic output from the climate models, and should not be taken at face value without consulting the probabilistic forecast for additional interpretation.

What about precipitation? Again, here's the simplified deterministic map given to the media..

Blue areas denote drier than normal, and red denotes wetter than normal (shouldn't the colour scheme be the other way around when talking about precipitation?) Note that the Prairies and NW Ontario are shown as wetter than normal, while the West Coast and the Arctic are drier than normal, as well as parts of Ontario. The probabilistic precipitation forecast is much more informative (as well as having a more logical colour scheme) showing near normal pcpn over much of the country, drier than normal over the Arctic, and wetter than normal over BC and Alberta. Again, a vastly different story than what the oversimplified deterministic forecast here shows. It should be noted however, that summer precipitation forecasts have little or no skill, (less than 35% accuracy as national average) which means they're pretty much useless over much of the country.

Put it all together, and the forecasts are actually pointing to near normal temperatures and precipitation for much of the Prairies.. hardly the hot dry summer being advertised.

So how are these long range seasonal forecasts produced? Seasonal 3 month outlooks are produced by the Canadian Meteorological Center's supercomputer in Montreal by running an ensemble of 4 global climate models initialized by weather patterns over the last 10 days of the month. The models run simulated weather patterns for the next 90-120 days, and an average temperature map for the country over that time period is produced. This temperature map is compared to "normal" temperatures for the country for that 3 month period, and the outlook map shows areas of warmer than normal , colder than normal or near normal temperatures according to the model ensemble. This outlook is totally model driven with no human intervention or augmentation whatsoever. Since it initializes with the last 10 days of weather patterns, long range outlooks are heavily weighted towards climate anomalies over the past couple of weeks. It does not take into account expected changes in ENSO patterns or other major climatic influences and as a result, the seasonal outlooks predictive skill is very low.

In contrast, seasonal outlooks from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) incorporate expertise and input from human forecasters who have experience in long range climate patterns. As a result, CPC seasonal forecasts tend to be more realistic and more accurate. Even here though, predictive skill with seasonal outlooks is limited, with the best skill noted during major climate episodes like El Nino or La Nina. For what its worth, CPC is predicting a cooler and wetter summer over the Prairies this year (see image above), at least through June, with a trend towards warmer and drier conditions towards the latter half of summer.

So, still think we're going to have a hot dry summer?

Satellite image shows aftermath of weekend storm

2011-05-02T10:00:00.008-05:00

The satellite image to the left from this morning shows the aftermath of this weekend's powerful winter storm that moved across southern Manitoba. The white areas reveal snow on the ground over much of southern Manitoba and southeast Saskatchewan. Heaviest snowfalls from this storm were observed over eastern SK into west central Manitoba where amounts of 30 to 50 cm were reported Saturday April 30th - Sunday May 1st, along with large drifts caused by 80-100 km/h wind gusts. (Darker forested areas of Riding, Duck and Turtle Mountains are clearly evident)

Note the secondary axis of heavier snow to the south of Lake Winnipeg that brought a swath of 5-10 cm of snow from northeast of Winnipeg down to the US border near Emerson during Sunday May 1st. Note also how this snow band reveals the extent of the Red River flooding to the south of Morris into northern ND, which shows up as a narrow band of dark patches amongst the snow covered terrain.

Sunny skies and temperatures warming up to 10 degrees today will melt most of the snow today, although snowfall in heaviest hit areas will take another day or two to disappear. Watch satellite loops to see how quickly the snow melts today..

Strong storm system to bring significant rain, snow and wind to southern MB this weekend

2011-04-29T16:38:00.005-05:00

Don't let that 22C sunshine today fool you.. Old Man winter is still lurking in the Prairies and will make his presence felt within 24 hours as an intensifying storm system moves across North Dakota tonight into Saturday. In advance of this system , rainshowers will overspread southwestern MB tonight and become more widespread overnight as they push into the Red River valley. Rain will continue Saturday in southeastern MB while colder air moving into western MB will change the rain to snow Saturday morning. Snow will increase in intensity as strong northerly winds to 70 km/h brings in unseasonably cold air, producing poor visibilities in snow and blowing snow. Travel will become difficult over southwestern MB into the Interlake regions Saturday into Saturday night where winter storm warnings are in effect for 10 to 20 cm of snow, with even greater amounts possible over the higher elevations of Riding and Turtle Mountains. The heavy snow and strong winds may also lead to local power outages. Rain will change to snow from the west during Saturday, reaching Portage by afternoon and Winnipeg by evening. At this point, it looks like Winnipeg and the RRV will see about 5 cm of snow Saturday night accompanied by cold northerly winds with temperatures dropping below freezing making for poor travel conditions. If the storm moves slower, Winnipeg could see greater snowfall amounts. The storm is expected to move into NW Ontario Sunday leaving cloudy skies and cold temperatures in its wake.

While unusual, snowfall at this time of year is not unprecedented. In 1967, Winnipeg saw 21 cm of snow on May 1st. In 2004, a snowstorm on May 11-12th produced 20-30 cm of snow across southern MB including Winnipeg leading to the shutdown of the TransCanada highway. Here is a list of Winnipeg's heaviest all time May snowfalls..

1. May 11, 2004.....31 cm (estimated)
2. May 1, 1967.... 21.1 cm
3. May 19, 1931.....20.3 cm
4. May 9, 2002.....20.0 cm
5. May 20, 1882.....15.2 cm
6. May 5, 1938.....13.0 cm
7. May 5, 1931.....12.2 cm

Intensifying storm system to bring showers Friday night.. colder weekend with possible .. snow??!!

2011-04-28T10:04:00.005-05:00

An intensifying storm system is forecast to track across southern Manitoba Friday into Saturday, bringing some widespread precipitation across the Dakotas and southern Manitoba. The system is expected to push a band of showers across the Red River valley late Friday into Friday night, with isolated thunderstorms possible over the far south into the Dakotas. General rainfall amounts of 10 - 20 mm are possible across southern MB by Saturday morning, with locally higher amounts in thunderstorms. On Saturday, the storm system is forecast to track east of Lake Winnipeg, dragging colder air on the backside of the system, and changing rain to wet snow mainly over the Interlake regions although some snow could also fall in Winnipeg Saturday into Saturday night. Cold weather will persist through Sunday with temperatures well below normal for the beginning of May.

Some nice temps for Easter weekend..

2011-04-24T06:04:00.002-05:00

Looks like we'll finally be seeing some nice springlike temperatures today, with sunshine and a westerly breeze allowing temperatures to climb to 17C today in Winnipeg. The atmosphere should be a little more stable as well so we shouldn't see much in the way of convective afternoon showers developing like the past few days. All in all, a nice Easter Sunday on tap. On Monday, a "back door" cold front is forecast to slip into the Interlake region as a cooler high pressure system moves across Northern Manitoba. This will bring cooler temperatures to the interlake regions Monday, while mild weather prevails over the far south with temperatures climbing to 20C for the first time this season, especially over the southern RRV. There is some difference in opinion on where this back door cold front will lie Monday as some models suggest the front will push south of Winnipeg, bringing northeast winds and slightly cooler temperatures for us (around 15C) Other guidance suggests the front will lie just to our north, allowing temperatures to rise to the 20C mark in Winnipeg. We'll have to see who's right, but the 21C forecast for Winnipeg Monday will be in jeopardy if that front settles a bit further south.

Tuesday looks mild again with temperatures in the upper teens with generally dry weather and near normal temperatures (around 15C) expected for the upcoming week. Long range guidance is hinting of a possible storm system over southern Manitoba by next weekend.

Precipitation possible Friday and next Tuesday as Red River crest heads north..

2011-04-19T22:39:00.007-05:00

A weak system will cross the Dakotas on Friday bringing a band of light rain to the Red River valley. Precipitation amounts are expected to be light with 2-5 mm over most areas of southern MB, and perhaps 5-15 mm over the North Dakota portion of the Red River valley. Precipitation may even be mixed with some wet snow early Friday morning. Things are expected to dry out for the weekend before another stronger system develops by Tuesday over the central Plains briging another round of precipitation and storms mainly south of the border. Some precipitation however is possible over southern MB Tuesday into Wednesday, although the bulk of precipitation is again expected south ot the border. Precipitation amounts should not have a dramatic effect on the levels of the Red River and its expected crests next week into early May. However, the extra precipitation may prolong the length that river levels stay high.

Temperatures will remain cooler than normal through the end of April and likely into the beginning of May as the overall pattern continues to favour a strong storm track south of the border with cooler air over much of the Prairies.

Snow possible by weekend over southern MB

2011-04-13T13:30:00.004-05:00

A strong storm system moving into the Central US plains this week is poised to bring a large area of rain and wet snow to the Northern Plains, with some snow likely working its way into southern Manitoba Friday into Saturday. The bulk of precipitation is expected to fall over the southern Dakotas into the northern Mississippi Valley where totals of 50 mm or more are possible, but a band of rain and wet snow is forecast to spread northward into southern Manitoba during Friday, likely changing to snow Friday night into Saturday even across the Red River valley. Much of the snow should melt initially, however some accumulations are possible especially over higher terrain. Like it or not, winter ain't done with us yet.

Flood links

2011-04-05T21:07:00.005-05:00

As the Red River rises, here are a few links that will come in handy over the next few days and weeks ahead..

Winnipeg city river levels (real time)

NWS Grand Forks Hydrology link

Manitoba Water Stewardship link

Manitoba Flood cams (8 across southern MB)

Winnipeg Red River flood graph (James St levels)

Free Press Flood coverage

CBC flood coverage

CTV flood coverage (includes 2 floodcams)

No joke.. spring storm system to bring snow across southern MB overnight into Sunday

2011-04-02T18:42:00.003-05:00

A beautiful springlike start to the weekend will end on a wintery note as a spring storm system tracks across the Dakotas tonight into Sunday bringing an area of snow to southern MB. Snow will spread into southwest MB this evening, possibly mixed at first with some rain before becoming heavy at times tonight. A snowfall warning is in effect from Melita to Pilot Mound where 10-20 cm is possible by Sunday, especially over higher elevations. Further east.. precipitation will likely begin as rain overnight in the Red River valley including Winnipeg, before changing to snow early Sunday. Wet snow, possibly heavy at times will continue Sunday before easing later in the day. Snow will likely melt initially however, 5-10 cm of heavy wet snow is possible in Winnipeg and the RRV by the time the snow taper offs by Sunday evening. Travellers should be prepared for a return to wintery weather Sunday over the RRV and much of southern MB with slippery road conditions and poor visibilities at times in heavy snow.

Dry weather over next week to give ideal snow melt conditions..

2011-03-24T14:02:00.008-05:00

A blocking ridge of high pressure over the Prairies will maintain generally sunny and dry weather over the next week over southern MB.. giving ideal slow snow melt conditions over the Red River valley. Strong late March sunshine and afternoon temperatures near freezing will contribute to a slow snowmelt during the day, while well below freezing temperatures at night will prevent a more rapid melt. No major precipitation events are expected over the next week over southern MB, although models show the potential for some precipitation over the central US Plains with some stronger storms systems. Latest guidance is hinting for some unsettled weather moving into southern Manitoba the first few days of April. Until then, the weather is looking very favourable over southern MB. This is good news in light of the 20-40 mm of precipitation that fell in the Red River basin south of Grand Forks earlier this week. Updated flood outlooks from Grand Forks and Manitoba indicate an increased threat of major flooding over the Red River valley on par or worse than the flood of 2009, especially in the southern RRV of North Dakota.

Storm to spare much of southern MB.. significant precipitation still expected over Red River basin..

2011-03-22T11:00:00.005-05:00

The storm system that was threatening to bring significant snowfall to southern MB as far north as Winnipeg will be sparing much of the area, with the heaviest precipitation expected to remain mainly south of the border over North Dakota. Winter storm warnings over southwest MB have been downgraded to areas mainly near the US border from Melita to Pilot Mound where 10-15 cm is possible. Heavier snowfall, mixed at first with ice pellets or rain, is expected across the Red River basin of North Dakota with a foot or more of snow forecast for Grand Forks this afternoon through tonight into Wednesday. Overall, it looks like 20-30 mm of precipitation is expected over the Red River basin of North Dakota through Wednesday which will add to the Red River flood threat as we get into the melting season. The good news is that most of the Assiniboine basin should miss out on heavier precipitation with this system.

Increasing threat of significant snowfall over Red River basin Tuesday into Wednesday

2011-03-20T15:50:00.003-05:00

Models are indicating the potential for significant snowfall across the Red River basin this week as a strong storm system pushes in off the Pacific and tracks across the US Plains. This system will be bringing in considerable moisture from the south while colder air feeds in from the north. The result will be a widespread area of precipitation developing over the northern Rockies and northern Plains, spreading into southwest MB by Tuesday morning. Precipitation is expected to be mainly snow although it could initially be mixed at first with ice pellets or freezing rain. Snow will spread over the Red River valley Tuesday becoming heavy at times especially to the south and southwest of Winnipeg. Early indications are that snowfall amounts of 15-25 cm are possible across portions of southwest MB and southern RRV with locally heavier amounts across North Dakota where winter storm watches are currently in effect. At this point, Winnipeg appears to be on the northern edge of this system with perhaps 5-10 cm Tuesday into Tuesday night.. but we'll be watching this system closely to see if there's any northward trend noted with the precipitation shield. Regardless, it looks like there could be a significant amount of precipitation falling into the Red River basin over the next few days. Stay tuned on this developing storm system.

System to bring rain and snow to southern MB Wednesday

2011-03-15T15:15:00.006-05:00

A low pressure system moving across southern MB Wednesday into Wednesday night is forecast to bring an area of rain and snow to our area, with some potentially heavy snowfall through the Riding Mountain and Interlake regions where snowfall warnings have been issued. Current indications are that areas along and south of the TransCanada will get some rain and wet snow Wednesday while areas north of the TransCanada through the Interlake and Riding Mtn areas will see mainly snow.. possibly heavy at times. At this point, it looks like maybe 5 mm of rain will fall along the TransCanada corridor Wednesday, including Winnipeg, with rain mixed with wet snow at times especially by evening. Heavier snowfall amounts of 10-15 cm are possible to our north and northwest Wednesday into Wednesday night. Snowfall amounts will be tricky depending on surface temperatures (will be some melting with near or above freezing temps Wednesday), timing of transition to snow, and elevation issues (heaviest snowfall will likely be over higher elevations to the west of Lake Manitoba). Travellers should be advised that locally heavy snow may be occurring Wednesday into Wednesday evening, especially north and northwest of Winnipeg.

Slick conditions developing Friday with mixed precipitation changing to snow and blowing snow Friday evening

2011-03-10T10:10:00.007-06:00

A storm system over the western Prairies is forecast to track through the MB interlake region overnight into Friday bringing a mixed bag of weather over southern MB Friday into Friday night. Milder air in advance of the system will bring some patchy rain, ice pellets or freezing rain over southern MB Friday morning, with slippery conditions likely as rain freezes on contact with colder surfaces. Temperatures are expected to rise above freezing for a few hours Friday afternoon (+1 to +4C range) which will result in some melting of snow and ice. A strong cold front however is expected to push through the Red River valley by late Friday afternoon with snow and blowing snow developing accompanied by strong northerly winds of 50 to 70 km/h. This front will drop temperatures well below freezing Friday evening freezing up any standing meltwater resulting in slick conditions. Snow and blowing snow will bring about 5 cm of fresh snow to Winnipeg and the RRV Friday night with heavier amounts likely north and east of the city. Be prepared for poor driving conditions across southern MB and the Interlake regions especially Friday evening into Friday night as temperatures drop and snow and blowing snow produce poor visibilities. Environment Canada has issued a special weather statement for Winnipeg and southern MB on the potentially wild and wintery weather Friday.

Storm system threatens snowfall for Friday.. risk of freezing rain

2011-03-07T19:58:00.003-06:00

Long range models are indicating the possibility of a storm system that will track across North Dakota Friday threatening snow and some mixed precipitation (freezing rain, ice pellets or even rain) across Southern Manitoba. Preliminary models suggest snow will spread over southern MB Friday possibly mixed with some rain or freezing rain initially. It's too early to say how much snow may accompany this system but early estimates are for at least 5-10 cm of snow across the TransCanada corridor and potentially 10-15 cm over parts of southern MB. Stay tuned on this potentially wintery finish to the work week.

Another cold night.. some moderation Sunday but generally colder than normal weather through start of March

2011-02-25T18:03:00.002-06:00

Another cold night is on tap over southern Manitoba as a ridge of Arctic high pressure over the Dakotas maintains clear skies and below normal temperatures over the area. Temperatures will likely drop to the -30C mark once again over the Red River valley overnight into Saturday morning with south to southwest winds of 15 to 20 km/h producing wind chills near minus 40 overnight. On Saturday, temperatures will start to moderate but gusty south winds will make it feel uncomfortably cold in the Red River valley. A frontal trough will pass through Saturday night with clouds and some light snow, which will be followed by milder conditions Sunday with highs around -5c along with lighter winds. Colder weather will follow for Monday with some snow possible Monday night (1-3 cm possible for southern MB including Winnipeg) Below normal temperatures will continue through the first week of March with additional snow possible by the end of the week. Old Man Winter is hanging on tough this year!

Snow and blowing snow moving into Red River valley

2011-02-17T17:26:00.002-06:00

An intensifying storm system developing over North Dakota will track into Northwestern Ontario tonight. Snow is spreading eastward across Southern Manitoba this afternoon as this system approaches. 5 to 10 cm of snow is likely for most areas of Southern Manitoba before the snow tapers off from west to east overnight into Friday morning. In addition to the snow, strong northwest winds gusting up to 70 km/h will develop by evening on the back side of this system and the combination of the falling snow and strong winds will produce poor visibilities of less than 1 km in snow and blowing snow especially over open rural areas. Blizzard conditions may develop especially in the Red River Valley this evening if the strongest of the winds materialize. Conditions will improve on Friday as winds gradually subside.

Mild week ahead.. Storm system threatens snow, colder temps for late week

2011-02-13T08:28:00.003-06:00

Springlike weather will be moving over southern MB this week as a mild Pacific airmass spreads across the Prairies. We'll get a taste of that mild weather today as a westerly wind brings in above freezing temps into southern MB and the RRV with highs of +2 or +3C. A cold front however will push through this afternoon into this evening, bringing a few rainshowers that will change over to snow by late afternoon/evening as temperatures drop below freezing. Watch for icy conditions tonight as northerly winds bring in colder air and freeze up any standing water. Monday will see increasing southerly winds develop in the afternoon and evening, bringing temperatures back towards freezing. This will set the stage for very mild conditions Tuesday and Wednesday as the peak of the warm air spreads over southern MB. Temperatures will be climbing into the +2 to +5C range over Winnipeg/RRV with +7C readings possible over the traditionally warmer downslope areas from the eastern Riding Mtns through the western RRV (Dauphin to Portage and Morden)

Attention then turn to a potential storm system that may affect southern MB for the end of the week. Long range models are showing a storm system developing over the central Plains that will be moving into Minnesota by Friday. This system will be bringing increasing north winds and colder temperatures by Friday along with the potential for accumulating snow, possibly significant over the RRV. At this point, it's too early to be more specific, but it does pose our next threat for significant snowfall. Stay tuned.

Winnipeg snowfall stats through January

2011-02-06T11:06:00.006-06:00

The following is a summary of the winter snowfall so far in Winnipeg. Snowfall data is from my site in Charleswood, while past snowfall data previous to 2004 is from YWG airport and St Johns College.

Snowfall - October 2010 to January 2011 ………. 116.6 cm
Normal snowfall (October to January inclusive).... 69.3 cm
Normal snowfall for entire snowfall season ........ 110.6 cm

So already at the end of January, we have exceeded our normal snowfall for the entire snowfall season (technically from September to May, although snowfall in both September and May is rare).

This is the greatest October to January snowfall accumulation since October 1996 to January 1997 when 136.8 cm was recorded. However this is still nowhere near a record and not in the top 10 for Oct-Jan snowfall accumulations. The record was in 1955-56. From October 1955 to January 1956, Winnipeg Richardson Intl Airport received 183.3 cm and for the entire snowfall season there was 252.6 cm, our snowiest winter ever.

Top 12 Snowfalls October to January (cm)

.......Years......Oct-Jan... Entire Snowfall Season
1. 1955-56..... 183.3..... 252.6 cm
2. 1915-16..... 152.9..... 216.7
3. 1919-20..... 152.6..... 211.8
4. 1996-97..... 136.8..... 213.4
5. 1909-10..... 132.8..... 212.8
6. 1906-07..... 127.0..... 193.5
7. 1933-34..... 126.6..... 170.5
8. 1949-50..... 126.0..... 201.9
9. 1988-89..... 122.9..... 152.3
10. 1965-66..... 117.3..... 212.6
11. 1874-75..... 116.7..... 140.3
12. 2010-11..... 116.6......???

Top 12 Snowfall seasons (Sept-May)

.......Years..... Entire Season..... Oct-Jan
1. 1955-56...... 252.6 ............ 183.3 cm
2. 1915-16...... 216.7............. 152.9
3. 1996-97...... 213.4............. 136.8
4. 1909-10...... 212.8............. 132.6
5. 1965-66...... 212.6............. 117.3
6. 1919-20...... 211.8............. 152.6
7. 1949-50...... 201.9............. 126.0
8. 1893-94...... 194.3............. 101.3
9. 1906-07...... 193.5............. 127.0
10. 1935-36.... 184.3............... 93.8
11. 1995-96.... 183.0.............. 99.1
12. 1892-93.... 181.2............. 100.7

Snowfall records:

Winnipeg St Johns College: 1872-1938
Winnipeg Richardson Intl Airport: 1938-2007
Winnipeg Charleswood: 2004-present

Risk of freezing rain overnight in Winnipeg/Red River valley

2011-02-03T19:24:00.007-06:00

Temperatures finally climbed to the freezing mark today in Winnipeg, the first time since November 16th that the temperature did not stay below freezing. In fact, it was milder today in Winnipeg (0.0C) than in Brownsville Texas (-1C with freezing rain and sleet) Temperatures have dipped below freezing this evening but are expected to rise overnight as clouds and southwest winds increase ahead of the next batch of precipitation currently over central SK/MB. This batch of precipitation is falling in the form of rain and some wet snow, and will track into southern MB overnight. This will result in patchy freezing rain developing where surface temperatures remain below freezing. Even if temperatures climb above zero overnight, the light rain falling on cold surfaces will likely result in locally slippery conditions on untreated surfaces such as walkways and side roads, which could create problems for the morning commute. Luckily the temperature should remain above freezing Friday so any ice should quickly melt Friday morning. Saturday looks fairly tranquil before blustery and colder conditions move in Sunday with some snow and blowing snow.

UPDATE: 9 pm: Freezing rain warning issued for Winnipeg and Red River valley.

Dry week ahead with warming trend.. next snow threat looms for weekend..

2011-01-30T16:59:00.007-06:00

A large ridge of Arctic high pressure over the Prairies will bring dry and cold weather over southern Manitoba to start the work week.. allowing some time to recover from Friday's wintery wallop. This high pressure ridge will dive southward into the US during the upcoming week, bringing unseasonably cold weather to the southern US Plains while helping to fuel a significant winter storm system that will affect a large part of the US midwest, Ohio valley and New England, as well as southern Ontario by mid week. Meanwhile, a return flow of milder Pacific air will spread over the western Prairies during the week, bringing a noticeable warming trend into southern MB for the middle to latter part of the week. The next threat of snow for Winnipeg and southern MB will be next weekend as another Alberta clipper tracks across southern MB bringing some snow, and a return to colder weather for next week.

It's too early to say how much snow the weekend's clipper will bring to the Red River valley.. these systems have had a history of bringing 5-10 cm to southern MB although Friday's more intense system brought 10-20 cm. These systems have helped to produce another month of above average snowfall in Winnipeg, with 44 cm recorded during the month, some 20 cm above normal. This has put the seasonal snowfall since Nov 1st to 115 cm in the city.. which is already an entire winter's worth of snow... with 2-3 months of additional snowfall to come. This winter is on pace to be the snowiest winter in Winnipeg since the winter of 1996-97 when 205 cm was recorded prior to the great Red River flood in the spring of 1997.

Alberta clipper to bring more snow.. risk of freezing rain.. to southern Manitoba tonight into Friday

2011-01-27T17:19:00.005-06:00

An intensifying Alberta clipper storm system will track into central Manitoba overnight and move across the Red River valley Friday bringing another round of snow to southern Manitoba. Snow from this system is expected to move into The Pas area this evening then spread southeastward through the Interlake areas into southern Manitoba tonight. Snow will become moderate to heavy at times with 5 to 10 cm likely across the Red River valley by Friday afternoon, and 10-15 cm possible through the Interlake areas. An area of freezing rain is also possible over southwest Manitoba this evening and overnight as the clipper system brings in some warmer air aloft. On Friday the clipper will track into the Dakotas with northerly winds behind it dragging colder air in by Friday evening into Friday night. This will lead to colder but sunnier weather for the weekend.

UPDATE: This storm system brought heavy snow to Winnipeg and the northern Red River valley, especially between 9 am and noon. I recorded 3.6 cm of snow between midnight and 7 am, with another 11 cm between 7 am and 1 pm. Snow was especially heavy around 11 am when visibility dropped to 100 metres in heavy snow. Click here for a 24hr time lapse sequence of this day, and note the near zero visibility about half way into the video .