tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post9177793032465182631..comments2024-02-25T19:29:38.176-06:00Comments on Rob's Blog: Some snow moving into southern Manitoba overnight into FridayUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger36125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-71158586952354796292012-12-26T05:34:59.543-06:002012-12-26T05:34:59.543-06:00That a wonderful blog and very informative. Overni...That a wonderful blog and very informative.<a href="http://www.abet-uae.com" rel="nofollow"> Overnight Desert safari Abu Dhabi </a><br /><br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04409384083635011111noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-89805870669457957562012-12-13T18:40:50.173-06:002012-12-13T18:40:50.173-06:00http://louboutinshop.co.uk I don't believe a ...http://louboutinshop.co.uk I don't believe a good beer travels well . http://dkgoose.com Rihrwsbga [url=http://canadagoosesweden.com]canada goose jakke[/url] <br />czopco 962150 [url=http://www.canadagoosestorontofactory.ca]red canada goose jacket[/url] 729204 [url=http://www.officialcanadagooseparkas.ca]canada goose jackets price[/url] Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-76148591647510038272012-11-04T16:48:41.895-06:002012-11-04T16:48:41.895-06:00Looks like we will get quite cold behind this syst...Looks like we will get quite cold behind this system, with highs in the minus teens for a few days (yeah, I'm not ready for it either!) Depending on how much snow we get, we could see lows in the minus 20s. (Note we set a record low of -26C after the 1986 blizzard) How the rest of November plays out is too hard to say at this point, as I don't see a clear signal one way or the other. <br /><br />New post up on this week's weather and the potential storm.. robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-54415788091718632982012-11-04T14:56:47.631-06:002012-11-04T14:56:47.631-06:00Hi rob,
Thanks for all the great info...it's ...Hi rob,<br /><br />Thanks for all the great info...it's basically a wait and see game right now.<br /><br />I forgot to mention earlier, just how cold will likely get behind the system because i'm hearing well below nornal 2nd half of november. Could we be looking at plugging the car type of cold? I certainly hope not, not yetAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-8861423017061729782012-11-04T14:52:28.620-06:002012-11-04T14:52:28.620-06:00At least that 1986 Nov blizzard was followed by a ...At least that 1986 Nov blizzard was followed by a very mild and low-snowfall winter. (up till late Feb). Wouldn't mind that!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-35704867457781083822012-11-04T14:48:28.040-06:002012-11-04T14:48:28.040-06:00@Anon.. Yes, the Euro backed off on that one run o...@Anon.. Yes, the Euro backed off on that one run of 30 cm, with bulk of snow to our northwest. Will have to see how it trends.. but Euro is usually pretty reliable.<br /><br />As for whether we could see another 1986 type blizzard here, well, I can't say it WON'T happen, because the potential is there according to the GFS and GGEM. Good setup with the digging long wave western trof and strong thermal gradient over the plains, and surface low tracking over northern MN. Now, everything has to come into place, and the storm has to track across northern Minnesota into Kenora-Ft Frances area for best chance for us.. but I can't rule out the possibility of a major storm for us. At the same time, it's still a small chance at this point. We'll just have to wait and see how things develop, but we'll follow it closely and keep you updated through the week.. robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-30237048471831633292012-11-04T13:53:18.697-06:002012-11-04T13:53:18.697-06:00Hi Rob,
That seems to be a change from what Euro ...Hi Rob,<br /><br />That seems to be a change from what Euro was indicating yesterday for Winnipeg...30 CM...now Euro is showing basically nothing much for Winnipeg and points east...5CM of snow or less is not something to talk about, even less a snow event.<br /><br />But I agree, with these types of systems it's very difficult to get a handle on what will happen this far out...certainly something to watch this week.<br /><br />I remember 1986, yes that famous blizzard of Nov '86, where the call was only 10 to 15 cm initially but we all know how that played out..so you just never know.<br /><br />Rob, do you think this storm could become something like 1986 for us here in the city?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-74793730991752143612012-11-04T13:36:31.394-06:002012-11-04T13:36:31.394-06:00One thing I forgot to mention that Dan from GFK al...One thing I forgot to mention that Dan from GFK alluded to earlier.. Euro model is indicating that the heaviest swath of snow from the weekend storm is expected west and northwest of Winnipeg, mainly over southern SK through Dauphin into the interlake regions, with less snow over the RRV and SE MB. Euro has been fairly consistent on this. GFS/GGEM on the other hand are further south and east with most of the heaviest snow over ND/RRV/SE MB. So even though most models agree there will likely be a snow event by Saturday, there is still considerable uncertainty as to where the heaviest swath of snow will fall. This will be the difference between a glancing blow to Winnipeg (5 cm or less), or a major hit (15 cm+). Hopefully, we can get some concensus over the next few days to get a better idea on how this storm will set up. robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-21875489539308786392012-11-04T11:43:55.093-06:002012-11-04T11:43:55.093-06:00Latest guidance continues to support a snow event ...Latest guidance continues to support a snow event for RRV/southern MB for next weekend, with GGEM and GFS very similar on overall pattern, timing and precip distribution. Euro is a bit less aggressive, but still brings a swath of snow over us in the same time frame. Latest GFS has come down on snowfall estimates with "only" 35 cm for Winnipeg, but still a good storm. Euro has also come down from 30 cm to 10 cm. GGEM is in the 20-30 cm range. Obviously these numbers will continue to change with each model run.. but they give some perspective.<br /><br />NAEFS ensembles are giving a 50% chance of seeing up to 9 cm in Winnipeg Saturday into Sunday, with a 25% chance of up to 23 cm. On the other hand, there's also a 25% chance we may see less than 2 cm. This far out, you have to expect that type of wide range in pcpn estimates.. which will tighten up as you get closer to the event.<br /><br />Overall though, I think it's a pretty good bet we'll be getting accumulating snow next weekend, the question is.. how much? At this point, on a scale of 1-10, I'd say confidence for at least 5 cm of snow for Winnipeg is an 8, and for 10 cm or more, I'd rate a 5. Stay tuned.. robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-70068092145487215652012-11-04T11:12:47.107-06:002012-11-04T11:12:47.107-06:00Hi Rob,
I noticed EC has rain or snow in the fore...Hi Rob,<br /><br />I noticed EC has rain or snow in the forecast for Thursday, does that look like anything big or just some light accumulations if any?<br /><br />I've heard today that Euro is still going with 30 cm at least with that possible big storm next weekend, what's the latest on this situation?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-80110700546877145182012-11-03T17:24:49.080-05:002012-11-03T17:24:49.080-05:00Mike..
Potential is there for a major storm.. wou...Mike..<br /><br />Potential is there for a major storm.. wouldn't be much of a surprise at this time of year. Although given how most snowstorms lately have been missing Winnipeg, it would be a surprise if we finally got one! :) But as I said, still early to say for sure. If nothing else, it will give us something interesting to talk about this week! robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-18963035275979392872012-11-03T17:03:20.282-05:002012-11-03T17:03:20.282-05:00Goodness, the models seem to like the idea of snow...Goodness, the models seem to like the idea of snowmaggedon type systems this Fall.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-9254431392957644802012-11-03T15:59:50.610-05:002012-11-03T15:59:50.610-05:00Rob, that potential snowstorm for next week is rea...Rob, that potential snowstorm for next week is really showing up on some models and is looking like it could be quite significant. The GFS Spotwx as such is pointing at 50cm of snow at my house by Monday, very unlikely. The cold weather followed looks quite January like with -12 and cooler wx. Though mother nature has a tendency to surprise. What do you think?Mikehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17535184969918068444noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-7747973506599441082012-11-03T15:37:51.220-05:002012-11-03T15:37:51.220-05:0012Z GGEM has come more in line with GFS and Euro a...12Z GGEM has come more in line with GFS and Euro about potential snowfall next weekend over southern MB, with 12z GFS now ramping things up to possible blizzard conditions over Winnipeg/RRV for Saturday (not that it's going to happen, but GFS gives Winnipeg over 50 cm of snow and winds gusting to 80 km/h!) Euro is taking main wave over northern plains, with inverted trof over southern MB bringing a general snowfall, but not quite as windy. Still, Euro showing about 30 cm of snow for Winnipeg over the weekend, which in itself is worrisome given the reliability of the Euro model. Overall, consensus seems to be growing that we will see a general snowfall over Winnipeg/RRV next weekend, with potentially significant amounts of 15 cm or more. Now, it's still a week away and a lot can change, so don't panic. Just stay tuned and keep checking in.. I'll be posting updates through the week. (Should I mention that Thursday is the 26th anniversary of the Blizzard of 1986 over southern MB?:))robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-41362917890378221992012-11-03T10:53:00.082-05:002012-11-03T10:53:00.082-05:00Anonymous..
Yes, the storm for next weekend has ...Anonymous.. <br /><br />Yes, the storm for next weekend has the potential to be significant over southern MB, with the possibility of 10 cm of snow or more. Still too early to get more specific, but models are agreeing that there will be a system tracking across the Dakotas late Friday into Saturday (Nov 10th) with snow spreading over the northern plain states and southern MB. Below normal temperatures to follow in its wake. I'll add a new post on this potential storm system over the next day or so. robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-3786266420933759912012-11-03T10:05:43.217-05:002012-11-03T10:05:43.217-05:00Rob,
2 questions.....
Does this storm for next w...Rob,<br /><br />2 questions.....<br /><br />Does this storm for next weekend look like a possible significant one?<br /><br />I'm hearing rumblings on very chilly temps in the 2nd half of the month, what's your opinion on that?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-41793975084177882682012-11-03T07:34:12.132-05:002012-11-03T07:34:12.132-05:00Got a light dusting of snow overnight, just enough...Got a light dusting of snow overnight, just enough to slick up the roads. Careful driving out there this morning.. could be slippery, especially bridges and overpasses..robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-83076277244214968322012-11-03T01:11:32.858-05:002012-11-03T01:11:32.858-05:00Daryl..
Click on my name for output from GFS mode...Daryl..<br /><br />Click on my name for output from GFS model valid for Saturday evening Nov 10th showing the potential storm that Dan was referring to. Still a ways away, but something we'll be following in the days ahead..<br /><br />robhttp://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gfs&stn=PNMPR&hh=192&comp=1&runb=00&mod2=gfs&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=204&fixhh=1noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-68739868249975937662012-11-03T00:44:54.618-05:002012-11-03T00:44:54.618-05:00Area of light snow just to the south of the city t...Area of light snow just to the south of the city trying to push north.. may move in overnight and give a dusting to the city. Snowfall amounts of 2-5 cm recorded from Portage through Carman to Morden/Winkler to Emerson today.<br /><br />A note about EC radar. EC radar on Weatheroffice is still in "rain" mode, which underdoes radar returns when its snowing. Weatheroffice radar doesn't go over to snow mode until Dec 1st. To see EC radar in either rain or snow mode, I recommend going to Brad's radar viewer on my radar page, or directly at..<br /><br />http://aweathermoment.tumblr.com/radar-viewer<br /><br />and select "1.0 CAPPI" under "product" selector. 1.0km cappi is snow mode, while 1.5 km cappi is rain mode. robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-11837673288214325632012-11-02T22:52:17.587-05:002012-11-02T22:52:17.587-05:00Thanks DanThanks DanDarylnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-86182613140300176352012-11-02T22:23:07.882-05:002012-11-02T22:23:07.882-05:00I was able to view the 168 hr 12hr GEM from the 12...I was able to view the 168 hr 12hr GEM from the 12z run and the 11/3 00z 216-240 hr GEM for that 10-12th period. GEM is a bit flatter with upper ridge ahead of trough and trough is a bit more positive tilt and thus low is a bit more suppressed and bulk of precip stays in ND into far southeast Manitoba as surface high is over central Canada. <br /><br />Who knows right now but the signal is there for something in the Winnipeg-Grand Forks region that period. Dan - NWS GFnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-68687236403691747412012-11-02T22:19:10.413-05:002012-11-02T22:19:10.413-05:00Hi Daryl...
Yes the entire Winnipeg-Grand Forks-B...Hi Daryl...<br /><br />Yes the entire Winnipeg-Grand Forks-Brandon-Bismarck region. Models of course a bit different run to run with how deep the storm is and track but all take a pretty deep trough into the 4 corner region of the US and have a surface low run northeast somewhere up into western Minnesota into far northwest Ontario with a wide swath of precip north and west of storm system from the Dakotas into southeast Sask and Manitoba into NW Ontario. <br /><br />12z Euro in particular is a bit farther west and would get a good snow event for areas from Regina to Dauphin to the Interlake region. Other runs had the snow area a bit farther south and east. Dan - NWS GFnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-28357871968626819542012-11-02T20:42:48.215-05:002012-11-02T20:42:48.215-05:00Hey Rob or Dan
When you say possiblity of large s...Hey Rob or Dan<br /><br />When you say possiblity of large storm around Nov 11 - 12. Do you mean in the Grand Forks area, the Winnipeg area or just somewhere on the praries?Darylnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-39972581821794533012012-11-02T18:39:43.429-05:002012-11-02T18:39:43.429-05:00Reports of isolated 6 inches in Northeast ND....Ro...Reports of isolated 6 inches in Northeast ND....Rolla area to between Pembina and Grafton. Heavy snow band set up there briefly in frontogentic forcing band. Radar shows weakening now....Dan - NWS GFnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-54999035250031818712012-11-02T17:52:06.181-05:002012-11-02T17:52:06.181-05:00Update NWS Bismarck got 3 reports of 6 inches o...Update NWS Bismarck got 3 reports of 6 inches of snow in Rolla ND (Turtle mountain region). <br /><br />Have noticed on radar that band of heavy snow that moved through Grand Forks this aftn moved to near a Portage to Morden to Grafton ND line is now starting to pivot back south some....So might give an idea that the main snow may not reach YWG.<br /><br />Dan - NWS GFnoreply@blogger.com