tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post8239584985635268179..comments2024-02-25T19:29:38.176-06:00Comments on Rob's Blog: Colorado low to bring round two of precipitation over southern MBUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger55125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-71708132112093835142009-03-24T22:59:00.000-05:002009-03-24T22:59:00.000-05:00Still getting freezing drizzle here as well.. even...Still getting freezing drizzle here as well.. even getting some power bumps now and then due to those high winds and icing.robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-91605876370700300802009-03-24T22:39:00.000-05:002009-03-24T22:39:00.000-05:00Freezing drizzle here...significant ice accumulati...Freezing drizzle here...significant ice accumulations on driveways, sidewalks, trees, and some highways. Fire trucks have been out many times tonight.<BR/><BR/>Brett Anderson from Accuweather is calling for 15 to 30cm of snow for Winnipeg. I don't have the foggiest idea where he got those numbers from. In any case it does appear that Winnipeg will get more than nothing tonight, I think 5cm sounds like a very good "guess". I say "guess", because the models have been so terrible lately any prediction is basically a guess at this point.Scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10378918135776009197noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-88100889987428571662009-03-24T22:33:00.000-05:002009-03-24T22:33:00.000-05:00Yeah, no kidding.. these past few days have really...Yeah, no kidding.. these past few days have really tested our met skills. Sure has been interesting though..<BR/><BR/>By the way, latest models keep bringing snow back over Winnipeg/RRV overnight/Wednesday as upper low moves almost due north towards International Falls and we get wrap around snow on the western flank. Latest radar showing some echoes to our east trying to work their way towards us. Perhaps this area will fill in overnight into Wednesday morning as upper low moves north. I still think the bulk of snow will fall east of the city, but Winnipeg may get 5 cm overnight/Wednesday..<BR/><BR/>Note that winds are quite strong tonight through Wednesday morning which will cause visibility problems with any snow that does fall.robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-15892315165672792922009-03-24T21:58:00.000-05:002009-03-24T21:58:00.000-05:00DanielPlease don't tease me. I don't know if I ca...Daniel<BR/><BR/>Please don't tease me. I don't know if I can take another miss. LOLAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-44389948348718867312009-03-24T21:54:00.000-05:002009-03-24T21:54:00.000-05:00Btw... another Colorado low is possible Mon/Tues s...Btw... another Colorado low is possible Mon/Tues somewhere over the N Plains ... I already have storm fatigue.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00949425441824069047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-60124734819679234842009-03-24T21:24:00.000-05:002009-03-24T21:24:00.000-05:00Daryl..Yeah, it's looking that way. Radar and sate...Daryl..<BR/><BR/>Yeah, it's looking that way. Radar and satellite photos show the area of pcpn over Minnesoa and ND is pretty much staying wrapped around the upper low well to our southeast. Southeast MB may get clipped overnight into Wednesday as the upper low moves north overnight, but it's looking like Winnipeg will miss much of the heavier snow (which is fine by me!)robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-23572008506554755572009-03-24T21:09:00.000-05:002009-03-24T21:09:00.000-05:00Did I read that right? Most of the snow will now ...Did I read that right? Most of the snow will now miss us? At least that is what most are thinking?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-32491738531233230952009-03-24T21:07:00.000-05:002009-03-24T21:07:00.000-05:00Warnings on the EC's Weatheroffice website appear ...Warnings on the EC's Weatheroffice website appear in upper and lower case letters if you prefer it that way. I prefer using the College of Dupage website for warnings because they are on the web faster, are more complete, and appear just as they are produced from the weather office, which are all caps and in an easier to read format (especially critical in summer severe weather)robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-35401296383573594712009-03-24T21:00:00.000-05:002009-03-24T21:00:00.000-05:00Mid level/upper low would have to move a couple of...Mid level/upper low would have to move a couple of hundred km further north for Winnipeg to be affected. GFS still progs 700 hPa low to move into NW Minnesota by dawn tomorrow. RUC is a bit further SE with that feature... for right now its pretty much stationary.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00949425441824069047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-70706325596075546522009-03-24T20:27:00.000-05:002009-03-24T20:27:00.000-05:00ROB Do you or anyone know why all of the Weather W...ROB Do you or anyone know why all of the Weather Warnings are issued All Caps in a Mono spaced Font (very difficult to read)??Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-68003615373735804002009-03-24T20:18:00.000-05:002009-03-24T20:18:00.000-05:00Thats Beaumont School.Thats Beaumont School.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-36646480084997716962009-03-24T20:15:00.000-05:002009-03-24T20:15:00.000-05:00RobI don't know about the worst, but like the prov...Rob<BR/><BR/>I don't know about the worst, but like the provincial flood forecast the late seventies (78 or79?)produced huge lakes in Charleswood with the front stair landings being the first above water visible object in most yards between bemont school and Roblyn Snow covering fences 6 feet high in most yards on April 14th was gone by April 17th I recall.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-56969617368806343782009-03-24T20:03:00.000-05:002009-03-24T20:03:00.000-05:00will that area of precip hit Winnipeg? The models...will that area of precip hit Winnipeg? The models show it hitting us. If not the models are way off!!!<BR/><BR/>So much for a decent snow event for us.<BR/><BR/>Damn!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-41485430801845693732009-03-24T19:59:00.000-05:002009-03-24T19:59:00.000-05:00That area of rain over northern MN is showing very...That area of rain over northern MN is showing very little motion northward.. it's mainly moving west around the upper low. Looks like only extreme SE MB will get clipped by this area of pcpn area as the upper low moves over northern MN tonight.robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-50257598624317652982009-03-24T19:38:00.000-05:002009-03-24T19:38:00.000-05:00Daniel P. asked..>>So Rob.....what do we win...Daniel P. asked..<BR/><BR/>>>So Rob.....what do we win for guessing the amount of precip in your poll....???? A trip down south ,somewhere warm???"<BR/><BR/>Well.. I was prepared to do that.. but with the economy the way it is, I had to scale back this year. So I just will give you a pat on the back for a job well done! By the way, the correct answer to the poll was 15-30 mm, with the Forks reporting around 21 mm since Sunday night. This is about half of what most models were suggesting prior to this event, at least for Winnipeg, but within range of the ensemble estimates.robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-9314792628133824792009-03-24T19:15:00.000-05:002009-03-24T19:15:00.000-05:00That's correct.. a winter storm warning is issued ...That's correct.. a winter storm warning is issued for snow plus another severe winter element.. such as freezing rain. EC does not have a freezing rain watch..just a winter storm watch which can be upgraded to a freezing rain warning if significant freezing rain is expected. In tonight's case, I guess they expect most of the precip over SE MB to turn to snow this evening, with a period of rain or freezing rain to start. Note that GFK is now reporting freezing rain. <BR/><BR/>By the way, I recorded 6 mm of rain overnight, and 7 mm of melted snow/ice pellets this morning for a storm total of 13 mm today. That puts me up to 19 mm since Sunday night. A lot of standing water in Charleswood area.. local city councilor Bill Clement says it's the worst he's ever seen around here.robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-28619033587466768632009-03-24T18:32:00.000-05:002009-03-24T18:32:00.000-05:00Daniel..I think the winter storm warning includes ...Daniel..<BR/><BR/>I think the winter storm warning includes a freezing rain warning/advisory.Scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10378918135776009197noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-40450521464720997192009-03-24T17:54:00.000-05:002009-03-24T17:54:00.000-05:00I am surprised EC did not issue at least a freezin...I am surprised EC did not issue at least a freezing rain watch for SE Manitoba.. what is your take Rob?Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00949425441824069047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-43111042703609760132009-03-24T15:43:00.000-05:002009-03-24T15:43:00.000-05:00Deformation band associated with mid level forcing...Deformation band associated with mid level forcing was progged to move NW of Winnipeg as discussed.<BR/><BR/>This band will weaken and wash out. As main 700 hPa low moves towards SE Manitoba tonite.. strong frontogenetic band redevelops as the low starts tapping cold arctic air streaming down form high. It is already forming in central Minnesota.<BR/><BR/>Expect it to intensify and back into SE Manitoba overnite. GFS and GEM hit SE Manitoba and RRV with 10-15 cm of snow overnite.<BR/><BR/>Uncertainties... how far NW will this band set up.. and freezing rain potential.<BR/><BR/>Freezing line is running right now from Emerson thru La Broquerie to Great Falls. Rain/snow line (850 hPa isotherm) running about 100 km west of that. Model sounding shows good inversion at YWG (0 C @ 850 hPa).<BR/><BR/>As that forcing moves in from the SE.. RUC depicts 0 C at Winnipeg and points SE until atleast 10 pm. Therefore there is initial risk of freezing rain for a few hours before precip changes back to snow.. maybe 10 cm worth..<BR/><BR/>That's my guessDanielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00949425441824069047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-36735850971803759132009-03-24T14:35:00.000-05:002009-03-24T14:35:00.000-05:00Was it expected for this initial precepitation to ...Was it expected for this initial precepitation to move as far north as it did? Usually it seems to stall and then counter rotate and move back over us but it seems to keep moving north as it counter rotates. I guess their is more comming from the south then or is the blip on radar going to move back down after the rotation?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-46909438280298589012009-03-24T14:32:00.000-05:002009-03-24T14:32:00.000-05:00getting reports of lots of water in the red lake b...getting reports of lots of water in the red lake basin east of Grand Forks up to Red Lake MN itself...ice jams occurring as well.. Lots of water too south of Fargo yet to get into the Red River as fields and towns are surrounded by water... thinking is more and more that all 3 bridges in GF will be closed as 52 ft looks more and more likely.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-22148725005821297252009-03-24T13:52:00.000-05:002009-03-24T13:52:00.000-05:00So Rob.....what do we win for guessing the amount ...So Rob.....what do we win for guessing the amount of precip in your poll....????<BR/><BR/>A trip down south ,somewhere warm???Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-57574379353337368752009-03-24T11:50:00.000-05:002009-03-24T11:50:00.000-05:00Lol... yeah its true, Winnipeg was often bypassed ...Lol... yeah its true, Winnipeg was often bypassed this winter.<BR/><BR/>From looking at RUC, warmer 850 hPa temps start to back in from the east by late afternoon... surface temps likely will stay below zero with the northerly flow. I think potential is there for light freezing drizzle by rush hour.<BR/><BR/>Gem and GFS then hit us with another blob of precip overnite.. this would be snow. It seems to be associated with the 700 hPa low and what looks like decent frontogenetic forcing.<BR/><BR/>But here I am guessing... because by looking at thermal gradient at 700 hPa one can only crudely estimate the forcing. <BR/><BR/>If we had access to quantitative forecasting tools such as Q vector analysis... mid level forcing would be a lot easier to pick out.<BR/><BR/>EC forecast discussions etc are necessarily more qualitative.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00949425441824069047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-28522845366764664212009-03-24T11:35:00.000-05:002009-03-24T11:35:00.000-05:00DanielIt almost seems to be the story of the entir...Daniel<BR/><BR/>It almost seems to be the story of the entire winter for WinnipegAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-2684574764170607972009-03-24T11:23:00.000-05:002009-03-24T11:23:00.000-05:00Deformation zone has backed off the NW... this is ...Deformation zone has backed off the NW... this is where the models painted the best baroclinicity and forcing at 700 hPa. Models hinted all along that Winnipeg could end up in stratus filled dry slot...Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00949425441824069047noreply@blogger.com