tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post7975495934766475933..comments2024-02-25T19:29:38.176-06:00Comments on Rob's Blog: Spring break begins with winter stormUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-65706666686596087842008-03-30T17:00:00.000-05:002008-03-30T17:00:00.000-05:00AWCN11 CWWGSummary weather statement issued by Env...AWCN11 CWWG<BR/>Summary weather statement issued by Environment Canada at 3:06 PM CDT <BR/>Sunday 30 March 2008.<BR/><BR/>Summary of severe weather events and forecasts from 8.00 AM CDT <BR/>Saturday to 8.00 AM CDT Sunday.<BR/><BR/>An intense weather system tracked through southern Manitoba on <BR/>Saturday and into early Sunday morning leaving a trail of wet heavy <BR/>snow to many areas. The southernmost part of the province,<BR/>Including the City of Winnipeg escaped the significant amounts as <BR/>temperatures remained warm enough to allow the falling snow to melt <BR/>throughout much of the event. The heaviest snow extended through<BR/>The Riding Mountain park region across Lake Manitoba into the<BR/>Central Interlake region. The heavy snow and strong overnight winds <BR/>produced widespread poor driving conditions. A number of highways <BR/>were closed including the Yellowhead and portions of the<BR/>Transcanada. The wet heavy snow and winds also combined to produce <BR/>power outages in the Lake Manitoba area.<BR/><BR/>Here is a summary of notable reported accumulations:<BR/><BR/>Brandon 12 cm<BR/>Neepawa 18 cm<BR/>Strathclair 30 cm<BR/>Rossburn 18 cm<BR/>Dauphin 20 cm<BR/>Carberry 10 cm<BR/>Amaranth 25 cm<BR/>Alonsa 35 cm<BR/>McCreary 25 cm<BR/>Steep Rock 15 cm<BR/>Ashern 30 cm<BR/>Lundar 10 cmAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-78790671318581038802008-03-30T14:12:00.000-05:002008-03-30T14:12:00.000-05:00I read the PASPC discussion this afternoon, and it...I read the PASPC discussion this afternoon, and it said that 30 to 40cm of snow fell in and around the Riding Mountains! I can agree with both comments, the snow was very heavy at times, but yet it seems unlikely 20mm fell in Winnipeg.<BR/><BR/>I thought Environment Canada would post a report of snow totals today. Do they still do that?Scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10378918135776009197noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-58921684852596823682008-03-30T13:47:00.000-05:002008-03-30T13:47:00.000-05:00I am not sure... maybe 15 - 20 mm is not out of th...I am not sure... maybe 15 - 20 mm is not out of the question for yesterday. The snowfall rate was phenomenal at times and the water content of the snow was extremely high. Is it possible the very strong winds caused some stations to underestimate precip totals?Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00949425441824069047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-9700254968052514972008-03-30T12:49:00.000-05:002008-03-30T12:49:00.000-05:00Scott..Those readings from Winnipeg (both airport ...Scott..<BR/><BR/>Those readings from Winnipeg (both airport and Forks) look suspiciously high.. and I suspect they were overcatching precipitation due to the presence of nipher snow shields still being on the precipitation guage. These snow shields act like larger funnels that make more accurate readings for snowfall during winter . However if they're still on in the spring, they will overestimate rainfall by as much 2 times due to the overcatchment area. These shields are usually removed by early April. That's some of the problems with relying on auto-station reports without proper quality control being done. Looking at other sites around Winnipeg (unshielded) showed results more in the 10 mm range during the storm. <BR/><BR/>Other auto-sites in western MB may have underreported precip amounts due to clogged gauges with the wet snow.. tough to say. I see several climate station reports (taken by real live humans!) of 15-20 cm of snow through the Riding Mtn/Minnedosa/Dauphin/Arborg areas .robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-74972253814441127002008-03-30T11:52:00.000-05:002008-03-30T11:52:00.000-05:00I was just looking at the precipitation accumulati...I was just looking at the precipitation accumulation from yesterday, and noticed something interesting. <BR/><BR/>Winnipeg received 17.5mm (Airport) and 21.8mm (Forks). Brandon on the other hand received 16.2mm, Dauphin 5mm, Carberry 14.3mm, Melita 6.2mm, Virden 6.2mm, McCreary 10.9mm, and Minnedosa 16.2mm.<BR/><BR/>It turns out Winnipeg received more precipitation than all these other regions that were supposedly right in the track of the storm. Is it possible there was lots more accumulation overnight? I am curious to see how much snow accumulated in the above regions in Environment Canada's statement later today. If it would have been a couple degrees colder, we could have been dealing with 20cm of snow!Scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10378918135776009197noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-87566562773590426122008-03-30T10:02:00.000-05:002008-03-30T10:02:00.000-05:00Well, after it was all said and done, ended up wit...Well, after it was all said and done, ended up with about 3 or 4 cm of wet slushy snow here in Winnipeg, and around 5 mm of rain for a total of 10 mm in melted precipitation for this event.robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-12895564908981845862008-03-30T06:54:00.000-05:002008-03-30T06:54:00.000-05:00Downtown Winnipeg this morning (Sunday) has some s...Downtown Winnipeg this morning (Sunday) has some serious wind gusts. I'd estimate it maybe around up to 60KM/h, Windows are rattling heavily in my apartment building.<BR/><BR/>WFP Current Conditions says the winds are 38MPH.Adam Alkinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16592660313633635810noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-42848524930457668612008-03-29T23:55:00.000-05:002008-03-29T23:55:00.000-05:00Okay..this is getting silly... somehow my google a...Okay..this is getting silly... somehow my google account name was changed. Last two posts were from me Daniel. Sorry for the multiple postings.<BR/><BR/>DanielAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-12797445132983460222008-03-29T23:51:00.000-05:002008-03-29T23:51:00.000-05:00Sorry..that last post was me... dont know how the ...Sorry..that last post was me... dont know how the heck that happened lol.. anyways good nite.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00949425441824069047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-51162203728727589162008-03-29T23:47:00.000-05:002008-03-29T23:47:00.000-05:00What an intense band of snow that passed thru befo...What an intense band of snow that passed thru before 10 pm to around 11:15 pm. With such strong warm air advection and low level jet... it would have been a good set up for nocturnal tstorms if there was a bit more moisture and warmth. Seems like the very strong dynamics and large scale ascent cooled the column off enough for a change to all snow after waffling between frozen and liquid precip. <BR/><BR/>As the forcing and band moves off...temps may climb as we will tap mild air down in N Dakota and Minnesota on a SE flow ahead of the low and the cold front. A lot of this snow/slush may gone by the morning... atleast I hope. The last we need is for all this gunk to refreeze as colder temps move in.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00949425441824069047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-43880355680313440012008-03-29T22:22:00.000-05:002008-03-29T22:22:00.000-05:00Scott..These types of system are the most challeng...Scott..<BR/><BR/>These types of system are the most challenging to forecast.. for the experienced and beginners alike! You're always learning in this business! <BR/><BR/>Very windy conditions setting up this evening in the southern Red River valley with southerly gusts to 85 km/h at the CWB site in Dominion City, and gusts to 83 km/h at Hallock MN. Doppler radar indicating 70 kt southerly low level jet at 5000 feet, some of which is surfacing this evening possibly due to that convective band coming through. Impressive system with a lot of dynamics!robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-21238299195065260382008-03-29T22:04:00.000-05:002008-03-29T22:04:00.000-05:00Today certainly stretched my forecasting abilities...Today certainly stretched my forecasting abilities, an indication I still have lots and lots to learn. Overall it was a good experience, luckily we got some kind of big snowfall this winter. In Steinbach our largest snowfall still looks to stand at 9cm for the winter, unfortunately this winter seemed especially poor. Spring is just around the corner(meteorologically) and the snow should be gone shortly. By the end of this week I think winter should finally be behind us, and April will hopefully bring warmer temperatures.<BR/><BR/>By the way, we still need to see which poll answer from the previous question will be correct.Scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10378918135776009197noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-63277107944796414032008-03-29T21:22:00.000-05:002008-03-29T21:22:00.000-05:00Well, it's certainly been an interesting day in Wi...Well, it's certainly been an interesting day in Winnipeg today with precipitation battling between wet snow and rain into this evening. Rain has now changed to wet snow in the city as of 8:30 pm (during Earth Hour!), and starting to give a slushy accumulation. Still some good echoes on radar, so we may still get 5-10 cm out of this thing tonight. Conditions worse to the west of Winnipeg with the TransCanada now closed from Brandon to SK border. <BR/><BR/>Note convective line of showers in North Dakota with tops to 30000 ft generating some lightning strikes near the SD border!robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-49249588218612323742008-03-29T14:55:00.000-05:002008-03-29T14:55:00.000-05:00So far in Winnipeg it is all wet snow.. (I will be...So far in Winnipeg it is all wet snow.. (I will be "camped" out in Winnipeg (St. Boniface)for the weekend, so no reports from Steinbach.)<BR/><BR/>...This leads me to believe that we will see just snow here. The temperature just fell from 2 to 1 degree, and the wet snow might cool the air a bit further. Upper air temperatures will be below zero through the entire event, and as long as the surface temperature doesn't rise I don't think we will see much rain. Some wet accumulations are already forming, I am interested to see this system develop some more, as to where the heaviest line of snow will set up.<BR/><BR/>The GFS and Global model(s) both show Winnipeg just along the heaviest line. The PASPC discussion suggested that the system may be tracking slightly farther South than expected, which would shift that heavy line right into Winnipeg. We are about to enter a small dry slot as of 2:40 p.m. and beyond that looks like more heavy snow.<BR/><BR/>This is definitely a good weekend for weather enthusiasts!Scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10378918135776009197noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-38093448786396386252008-03-29T12:51:00.000-05:002008-03-29T12:51:00.000-05:00WOWThat radar return is looking mighty impressive!...WOW<BR/>That radar return is looking mighty impressive!<BR/>I wonder if it is going to be a rain /snow mix or all snow.<BR/>Well I guess we will find out in a hour !!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-87860304898911086102008-03-29T08:23:00.000-05:002008-03-29T08:23:00.000-05:00I dislike the heavy snow falls with these temps. I...I dislike the heavy snow falls with these temps. It makes it almost impossible to move. The stuff comes out of the snowblower like a sausage machineAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-60935828387405485432008-03-28T15:23:00.000-05:002008-03-28T15:23:00.000-05:00The bust potential for this storm is highest along...The bust potential for this storm is highest along the US border, over the red River valley (including Winnipeg)and SE MB. These are the areas where enough warm air could mix in to give more rain than snow and keep overall accumulations down. But this is a wild card at this point, and I wouldn't bet on it. It only a takes a degree or two difference to give you snow instead of rain, so I'd be cautious about downplaying things for Winnipeg at this point. Hence the winter storm watch. I think it's pretty much a given that areas from Brandon through McCreary to Fisher Branch will see a decent snowfall from this thing by Sunday morning with a good 20-30 cm in that swath. For Winnipeg, we could see anywhere from 5 cm if we get more rain to 15 cm if its mainly snow.robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-20290094734370024142008-03-28T13:08:00.000-05:002008-03-28T13:08:00.000-05:00I think that is unlikely, this system has been in ...I think that is unlikely, this system has been in the forecast for quite a while now, a last minute switch just doesn't seem reasonable. This system is also developing today, so I don't think that overall system will change at all. Although precipitation amounts and exact track are always variable factors.<BR/><BR/>About the +3 temperatures...The ground is still frozen (besides the top couple centimeters during the day) and with the cold ground most will probably stick. Furthermore with the freezing mark in the upper atmosphere veering well south of us as the system comes in at its fullest, most precipitation will be snow. Rain is just possible as it approaches, in the first stages of its impact.<BR/><BR/>Some of that was my opinion, what do others think about snow amounts? I think Winnipeg will see 15 to 25cm and areas west should see 20 to 30cm. Eastern Manitoba will be on the fringe so it could end up being 15 to 25cm there, or only 5 to 10cm we will have to wait and see.Scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10378918135776009197noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-49136743169338937872008-03-28T12:20:00.000-05:002008-03-28T12:20:00.000-05:00What are the chances that this system could be a c...What are the chances that this system could be a complete bust???<BR/>If they are calling for 3 C for a daytime high tomorrow will the snow even stick??Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com