tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post7622901804878242520..comments2024-02-25T19:29:38.176-06:00Comments on Rob's Blog: Another round of showers and thunderstorms tonight.. locally heavy rain and hail possibleUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger55125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-56690528760423234542012-05-23T14:54:30.837-05:002012-05-23T14:54:30.837-05:00Too early to say.. looks like showers and possible...Too early to say.. looks like showers and possible tstorms move in Saturday night into Sunday morning, tapering off by evening.. so it's possible there *could* be a break in the rain Sunday afternoon if system is a little faster. However, system is still organizing and is a few days away, so timing and distribution of precipitation, especially convective in nature, is highly speculative at this point.robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-88143371155453171782012-05-23T14:12:12.028-05:002012-05-23T14:12:12.028-05:00Is it gonna rain the heaviest/ all day sunday or w...Is it gonna rain the heaviest/ all day sunday or will it taper off in the aft sunday?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-75518277648706071602012-05-23T13:58:39.553-05:002012-05-23T13:58:39.553-05:00Major cooldown for Friday into Saturday as long wa...Major cooldown for Friday into Saturday as long wave trof moves over Prairies, with northwest winds behind departing low Thursday advecting chilly air from the north into southern Prairies. As mentioned, progs show it will get cold enough for rain to change to snow over higher elevations of western MB and eastern SK Thursday night into early Friday. Will need to keep an eye on frost and freeze potential for Winnipeg and RRV Saturday morning.. hopefully things will stay cloudy enough Friday night to prevent temps from dropping too much after a chilly day Friday, but gardeners beware, potential for frost Friday night into early Saturday. Saturday looks dry for the most part, but another well defined system and warm front with large scale push of warm air from the south will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms into southern MB later Saturday into Sunday with potential for heavy rainfall yet again (of course, it's the Teddy Bear picnic Sunday!). Staying generally cool and unsettled into early next week. Not much in the way of sunshine and warm temperatures for the next little while unfortunately.robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-45487503590979365622012-05-23T13:35:07.617-05:002012-05-23T13:35:07.617-05:00Yikes.. don't look now, but models indicating ...Yikes.. don't look now, but models indicating some snow over the Duck and Riding Mtns and higher elevations of SE SK Thursday night into early Friday. Don't want to see that..robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-23923099670286129682012-05-23T11:28:39.669-05:002012-05-23T11:28:39.669-05:00Agreed; I used the quotes liberally :)Agreed; I used the quotes liberally :)Bradhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09422961165888722429noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-83742276295168582982012-05-23T10:37:09.606-05:002012-05-23T10:37:09.606-05:00Yeah, temperature at my site popped up to 18.6C ar...Yeah, temperature at my site popped up to 18.6C around 4 am before dropping to a low of 13C early this morning. I think it was due to a wind shift into the SW that briefly tapped into the warm sector. Note that the dewpoint also popped up to 17C at that time. A true heat burst would be associated with a sudden rise in temperature as well as a dramatic drying of the dewpoint, usually just preceding a thunderstorm.robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-28990502763620313642012-05-23T10:25:41.943-05:002012-05-23T10:25:41.943-05:00Rob, did you notice the little "heat burst&qu...Rob, did you notice the little "heat burst" overnight after the storms went though? https://img.skitch.com/20120523-xxr92a3jta8dq9p4ek8jyasqh6.pngBradhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09422961165888722429noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-79825300980282432902012-05-23T10:24:57.574-05:002012-05-23T10:24:57.574-05:00I think you're pretty safe today, Mike. If we...I think you're pretty safe today, Mike. If we get anything today it'll be showers in the late afternoon. Maaaaaybe a strike of lightning. Should be a nice lunch hour :-)Bradhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09422961165888722429noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-43979698457172233132012-05-23T09:57:52.416-05:002012-05-23T09:57:52.416-05:00we are hosting an event at my school today, and ha...we are hosting an event at my school today, and have postponed it due to possible thunderstorms? Do you guys think that we will be safe from them at 11:30am to 1:30PM?Mikehttp://www.mikesobs.blogspot.canoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-49235534429526629092012-05-23T09:38:28.545-05:002012-05-23T09:38:28.545-05:00JoeL..
You can access a forecast IR satellite ima...JoeL..<br /><br />You can access a forecast IR satellite image for the Prairies by clicking on the "IR satellite" icon on my main webpage, then scrolling down to "48hr IR satellite forecast" There are links to IR satellite imagery for the next 48 hrs from the Canadian GEM model, which basically shows the amount of total water vapour in the air. Loop to 48 hrs. Time in UTC. It's just model data though, so treat it with a degree of caution. But it can give you a good idea of trends and timing of clouds. <br /><br />For radar, you can try Weather Network's "futurecast" of radar on their radar imagery (available on my radar page) It just takes current radar and "moves" it forward a few hours based on current storm motion. Note however, that it cannot forecast future trends (like intensification or decaying of cells) so beware of its limitations. But it can give you a fairly good sense of storm motion and precip timing if things are behaving. <br /><br />Also, you can also take a look at graphs of model data for things like temperature, precipitation, clouds, etc at select points. GEM model graphical data for Winnipeg available under the Winnipeg forecast icon (12 hr, 48 hr, 6 day, etc) from SpotWx.com Links also for NAM, GFS and European model data shown. These will give you a general sense of precip, temperature, humidity, wind and cloud trends over the next few hours or days (strictly model data though, so again.. treat with caution) <br /><br />Hope that helps!robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-42111164208524993562012-05-23T09:09:13.245-05:002012-05-23T09:09:13.245-05:00Only 3 mm of rain last night at my place with the ...Only 3 mm of rain last night at my place with the thunderstorms that passed through after midnight. Nice light show but main action went generally just north and east of the city, with amounts of 10-20 mm in places like Oakbank, Beasejour and Gimli. Radar accumulation product from Woodlands shows main swath was from Ile Des Chenes area through Oakbank and Beasejour up to Milner Ridge with pockets of 25-50 mm noted (assuming no hail contamination) Little or no rain over the southern RRV which basically missed out on the storms. Secondary area of heavier rain over Duck Mtn area with 25-50 mm towards the SK border.robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-43009157535019420352012-05-23T07:37:43.089-05:002012-05-23T07:37:43.089-05:00Thanks Rob. Now that I know that I can see that bo...Thanks Rob. Now that I know that I can see that both the radar and the satellite are showing what has happened over the last few hours. What I would like to know is there any visual representation of what is likely to occur over the coming few hours? That's the information that my son really needs.JoeLnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-45780209859283421682012-05-23T00:44:26.002-05:002012-05-23T00:44:26.002-05:00Wow incredible light show with that first round. C...Wow incredible light show with that first round. Can't believe my eyes there's a second round coming.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-48130216679858583272012-05-23T00:09:38.900-05:002012-05-23T00:09:38.900-05:00Could see some big wind gusts when the first showe...Could see some big wind gusts when the first showers hit shortly.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-18004554617953449152012-05-23T00:04:59.180-05:002012-05-23T00:04:59.180-05:00Lots of attenuation on the Woodlands radar display...Lots of attenuation on the Woodlands radar display from EC, as that line tries to build. Leading edge looks like its nearing the West Perimeter.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-46852875160229550922012-05-22T23:49:23.001-05:002012-05-22T23:49:23.001-05:00Wow.. Lightning on western horizon is almost conti...Wow.. Lightning on western horizon is almost continuous now.robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-78278178425532119442012-05-22T23:44:32.477-05:002012-05-22T23:44:32.477-05:00Correction... Between midnight and 1 am..Correction... Between midnight and 1 am..robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-20537752199476226982012-05-22T23:41:13.329-05:002012-05-22T23:41:13.329-05:00Yep.. Lots of in cloud lightning to my west. Line...Yep.. Lots of in cloud lightning to my west. Line growing nicely.. Should see something here by 1 am or so...robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-27529447509289647692012-05-22T23:26:55.466-05:002012-05-22T23:26:55.466-05:00And there we go. It's filling in quite nicely...And there we go. It's filling in quite nicely along Highway 13/3/32 from the Trans-Canada Hwy. to the Int'l Border. Plenty of lightning in those storms. Will slowly push eastwards with the LLJ. Should see a bit of a light show move through in the next 1-3 hours.Bradhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09422961165888722429noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-73933324205822517562012-05-22T23:21:17.548-05:002012-05-22T23:21:17.548-05:00Incredible lightning show right now in AltonaIncredible lightning show right now in AltonaDereknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-40516364778207547902012-05-22T22:58:25.355-05:002012-05-22T22:58:25.355-05:00Definitely an interesting situation that's dev...Definitely an interesting situation that's developed.<br /><br />Extensive thunderstorms over SW Manitoba continue to rumble northeastwards. Developing earlier in the day in an area with plenty of sunshine, instability, and a good moisture feed, these storms organized quickly and have grown into a multicellular cluster that will go all night.<br /><br />Convection in North Dakota initiated significantly further south and east than expected, allowing it to tap into even more instability and moisture than if it were to fire further north. That's allowed that storm to just explode; it's anvil now covers almost 1/3rd of North Dakota.<br /><br />Unfortunately, all that air that's going up has to come down, and unfortunately that's often downwind. You can watch the clouds melt away as the anvil grows on the satellite image, and that subsidence will be an extra force that any storms that want to fire further north will have to battle against. One small cell heading towards Emerson has tried to go, but simply can't break through the cap.<br /><br />With the way things are, I think my outlook has been fairly good. The complex over SW MB will push NE and (probably) end up missing the city of Winnipeg. The storms over S. ND will continue to push NNE and into SE MB overnight. There's certainly a non-zero chance that storms may fill in between the two systems, but at the moment it would not be a shock if storms ended up passing Winnipeg to the North and to the East.Bradhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09422961165888722429noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-50613802206015449972012-05-22T22:40:12.666-05:002012-05-22T22:40:12.666-05:00JoeL..
Both satellite and radar images are in UT...JoeL.. <br /><br />Both satellite and radar images are in UTC. Subtract 5 hrs to get CDT. (6 hrs for CST)robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-8746516923472542462012-05-22T22:37:39.885-05:002012-05-22T22:37:39.885-05:00Mike..
Radar will show you where all the storms a...Mike..<br /><br />Radar will show you where all the storms are. Line of cells has popped up north and east of Winnipeg ahead of the warm front. Then we have a few stronger tstorm cells over SW MB and the western RRV moving to the NNE. Finally a cluster of strong to severe tstorms over eastern ND spreading newd possibly to affect southern RRV and SE MB. <br /><br />Winnipeg may actually dodge most of these storms as they skirt to our southeast, and west. However I think we should see something by midnight or early overnight with a band of showers and embedded thunderstorms. However, it's quite possible Winnipeg may miss the heaviest activity this time around.robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-28141014609818439042012-05-22T22:23:36.303-05:002012-05-22T22:23:36.303-05:00Hi Rob,
This will come in the middle of all the p...Hi Rob,<br /><br />This will come in the middle of all the posts about this evening's weather. I am wondering about the time shown on the IR Satellite Image on Rob's Obs - is that CDT? Also the time shown on the Current Radar is UTC. What is the adjustment to convert that to CDT?<br /><br />My son uses these images all the time to help him with his outdoor business.JoeLnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-49996525167057475492012-05-22T22:02:03.787-05:002012-05-22T22:02:03.787-05:00Where is all the storms?Where is all the storms?Mikenoreply@blogger.com