tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post7518335613485429400..comments2024-02-25T19:29:38.176-06:00Comments on Rob's Blog: NWS issues Red River flood outlook for North Dakota - similar flood to 2009 expected this springUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger39125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-69587757460398642012012-12-16T08:47:39.705-06:002012-12-16T08:47:39.705-06:00�Dividing your documents into binders based on d...�Dividing your documents into binders based on document type will help you to feel more secure since you will know exactly where all of your documents areientrymail Some tailgaters never actually enter the stadium#file_links\NFL\UBB.txt,1,L] but instead enjoy the entire game from the parking lotThis method is one that will be tracked in the forum and predicted scores will be given using both averages and medians Some older drive utilities such as Spinrite included a sector refreshing function that read and rewrote all sectors to firm up the sector magnetic domains<br />now they have an expansive choice because of all the various modern house numbers that are availabletimestamp a > span {display: inline-block;width: 16px;background-image:url(http://images Wrote some books#5) @jack_welch (Up from #7) - Jack Welch - Author#file_links\NFL\UBB.txt,1,L] Commentator#file_links\NFL\UBB.txt,1,L] and Founder of the Jack Welch Management Institute#6) @JohnCMaxwell (Up from #8) - John C Maxwell - Bestselling author & speaker on leadershipWith Kind Regards#file_links\NFL\UBB.txt,1,L]Veronica Richards:Thank You Letter to Teacher from StudentAlhough these letters are usually written by parents#file_links\NFL\UBB.txt,1,L] there is no hard and fast rule about it; even students can write one The odds of doing it yourself without causing any harm to your computer are heavily stacked against you<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-61823993303106618252010-02-25T19:52:10.507-06:002010-02-25T19:52:10.507-06:00Clouds look to hang around for a better part of th...Clouds look to hang around for a better part of this weekend as slow moving shortwave digs over us. It will will eventually drag a weak surface trough and switch our winds back to northerly. High pressure builds back in although GFS brings in a follow up disturbance.<br /><br />Both GEM and GFS agree on good warm up next week as upper ridge axis finally moves east and surface ridge moves SE. Things get unclear as large pacific trough tries to crash onshore around Mar 3.<br /><br />It appears as though this system will wash out due to strong blocking in place as suggested previously. Models diverge... GFS colder then GEM allowing northern shortwaves to erode upper ridge putting us back into a NW flow. Deep Pacific trough will persist awaitng a breakdown of block...Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00949425441824069047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-25602895403230230832010-02-25T09:23:53.051-06:002010-02-25T09:23:53.051-06:00Thanks for your link, Ben. We'll be watching. ...Thanks for your link, Ben. We'll be watching. Looks like you guys are ready for the worst this year. Hopefully things aren't as bad as last year. Best of luck..robnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-2025910714804913482010-02-24T23:45:32.068-06:002010-02-24T23:45:32.068-06:00If interested, I set up a live webcam of the Red R...If interested, I set up a live webcam of the Red River right outside of my window. I live in Fargo.Benhttp://www.fargoflooding.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-28708959835028633462010-02-24T21:42:28.669-06:002010-02-24T21:42:28.669-06:00Interesting question Anonymous. It's happened ...Interesting question Anonymous. It's happened 5 times since 2000, though it isn't highly usual; from 1939-2000, only 11 februarys didnt get to 0C, according to my findings. The last time we didnt hit +0 in Feb was in 2008.Jewelsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-19586761803179353172010-02-24T20:18:06.854-06:002010-02-24T20:18:06.854-06:00Rob!
Have you ever heard of a "SNOWICANE&quo...Rob!<br /><br />Have you ever heard of a "SNOWICANE"<br /><br />How about "SNOWMAGGEDON"<br /><br />Yet more superlatives to describe the upcoming east coast storm!daniel Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-28513961085822755442010-02-24T19:04:15.435-06:002010-02-24T19:04:15.435-06:00It appears that February will be lacking a Temper...It appears that February will be lacking a Temperature greater than 0 C.<br /><br /> When was the last time and how frequently does this occur.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-36204545459780533062010-02-24T11:43:54.262-06:002010-02-24T11:43:54.262-06:00Daniel
Thanks for the caution on the Data. The e...Daniel <br />Thanks for the caution on the Data. The early drawdown of Lake Traverse by the corps of engineers appears to have an effect on the "Snow Melt Date" especially since the 1996. <br /><br />This years Lake Traverse drawdown began Feb 16 (usually Mar 1)..If you look at the USGS water flow data for each of the RR locations upstream of Fargo you can see the increase stream flow about a week later in Fargo for example. (this artificially effected date appears to be used in the Data)Jimnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-3894623828865941042010-02-24T09:34:18.721-06:002010-02-24T09:34:18.721-06:00Dan GF
If the surface weather similarity to 69 ...Dan GF <br />If the surface weather similarity to 69 continues we have an opportunity to observe the effect at a time when the average spring melt commencement date in Fargo is 25-30 days earlier.. e.g. March 27 1969 to Feb 28 2009<br /><br />Also Interesting is, that although the Melt begin date in Fargo is 30 days earlier, the actual (not average) Flood Crest date is only 18 days... Apr 14 1969 to Mar 27 2009. <br />In Winnipeg in 69 it took another 29 days (May 13th) to reach here.Jimnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-25924024891965329962010-02-23T18:30:07.763-06:002010-02-23T18:30:07.763-06:00Daniel
Hi We were discussing the long range toda...Daniel<br /><br />Hi We were discussing the long range today and actually the past few days. Right now the AO is very negative and blocking very strong and our local climate person in the office is thinking it will persist through mid March. But once it gives way it will do so quickly followed by a potential storm end of March time period. As always a bit tricky dealing that far out. Of course huge implications for our flood. <br /><br />In chat with the RFC in Chanhassen the year 1969 comes up again and again.Dan - GFnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-69468914488827880342010-02-23T17:41:51.663-06:002010-02-23T17:41:51.663-06:00-29 C to -32 C were pretty common undert the ridge...-29 C to -32 C were pretty common undert the ridge this morning. I do not expect it to get that cold at YWG tonite with lite SW flow developing.. however the SW flank of the city may drop down to -30 C early this evening before stabilizing.<br /><br />Looking at EC's extended forecast for Winnipeg... it is too optimistic (unfortunately). The guidance seems to often get tripped up by shallow inversions like the one which will likely set up over the extended period. Strong blocking pattern will prevent arctic high from moving far enough east, keeping us in a southerly valley flow. 850 hPa temps warm as arctic air modifies but with surface high possibly retrograding (moving back west), we are looking at a pattern very similar to what we experienced last week... clear skies will allow for cold nites and limited recovery over high albedo areas (RRV).<br /><br />Have to keep an eye on signs of block breaking down towards end of extended (2 week) period. GFS has been consistent with general idea of Colorado low ejecting out somewhere between Mar 5-8 for quite some time now...Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00949425441824069047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-36920201173703573862010-02-23T08:56:30.204-06:002010-02-23T08:56:30.204-06:00Daniel its interesting to note that since 1950 eac...Daniel its interesting to note that since 1950 each time there is a recovery to a later date in the other two stations (St Croix and St Louis Rivers) Fargo's snow melt trends sharply earlier.Jimnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-82559906921707495542010-02-22T22:27:24.831-06:002010-02-22T22:27:24.831-06:00Based on a quick scan of the study.. I would not b...Based on a quick scan of the study.. I would not be surprised if there is another factor contributing to earlier commencement of high flow rates at Fargo. Perhaps changes w.r.t. drainage control structures on Lake Traverse etc...<br /><br />Otherwise I cannot see how snow melt could be occurring earlier at Fargo versus the other two stations which are forested (lower albedo) and at similar or lower latitude.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00949425441824069047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-86592682696147765972010-02-22T21:54:56.679-06:002010-02-22T21:54:56.679-06:00Earlier Fargo flood crests, and last year I believ...Earlier Fargo flood crests, and last year I believe was the first March crest in Fargo History, can result in more problems downstream unless there is a corresponding earlier breakup here.Jimnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-14225503815010697112010-02-22T21:49:02.771-06:002010-02-22T21:49:02.771-06:00Rob your update of MBs flood forecast reminded me ...Rob your update of MBs flood forecast reminded me of a study by Pat Neuman (Retired NWS Hydrologist) from Chanhassen which studied the RRV and Central Minnesota and concluded a shift in spring temperatures was resulting in significanly earlier spring thaw at Fargo. <br /><br />IMO This climate trend of much earlier spring breakup in Fargo and the recent trend to greater precipitation March 1 thru RRV Crest (8 of the last 20 years and 7 of the last 15) suggests a higher probablty than 10%. for the a flood greater than last year. <br />.<br /><br />An updated study based on Pat’s data is available on my name or at at http://processtrends.com/pg_global_warming.htm#Beginning_Day_of_Snowmelt_-_3_Midwest_BasinsJimhttp://processtrends.com/pg_global_warming.htm#Beginning_Day_of_Snowmelt_-_3_Midwest_Basinsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-48707049664819075782010-02-22T20:18:04.210-06:002010-02-22T20:18:04.210-06:00Thanks for that information !Thanks for that information !daniel Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-54801458478874420332010-02-22T19:32:15.762-06:002010-02-22T19:32:15.762-06:00daniel..
I would say that if you or someone is in...daniel..<br /><br />I would say that if you or someone is interested in the field of meteorology, go for it! Yes, EC's meteorological workforce is smaller due to automation and centralization, but there will always be a need for meteorologists to add their expertise and knowledge. As we all know, automation can't do everything.. and humans will always be needed to do the things machines can't do. (consider us akin to pilots.. auto-pilot technolgy does a lot of the work for them, but you don't want a machine landing an airplane!)<br /><br />Keep in mind also, there is always a turnover in EC staff retiring or moving on to other things, so EC continues to accept and train new recruits each year (a dozen or two) A good background in math and physics is required, but increasingly I would say that expertise in computer programming, GIS technology, and/or web design would be a great asset for future meteorologists given the direction of meteorological data dissemination.robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-79346196373436780372010-02-22T19:14:13.180-06:002010-02-22T19:14:13.180-06:00Wednesday morning looking cold with arctic high pr...Wednesday morning looking cold with arctic high pressure sitting over us as expected. Temps at YWG will be tricky though with lite SW flow developing by dawn. Look for coldest temps from SE Manitoba into Grand Forks area. Same high will be over SE Saskatchewan tomorrow morning... we'll see what lows are like there.<br /><br />GFS struggling with evolution of omega block pattern over N America and its eventual breakdown by strong pacific energy. First wave dives south and travels along southern stream as upper ridge tries to build east over Manitoba. Column warms but not sure how much will manifest itself at surface with high pressure around for much of the period. We will have to wait for upper ridge axis to pass and west/southwesterly surface flow to develop for good warming.<br /><br />Next wave of energy (and one of interest for us) progged to come onshore approx Mar 3. Still see inverted trough signature for Alberta and Saskatchewan with freezing drizzle/rain a possibility. Things get murky as usual when upper level energy starts consolidating south and surface low pressure reorganizes in Colorado. At this point GFS takes the low south of us into the uprre midwest/ central plains.<br /><br />I would not be surrpised if future model runs further push back arrival of system given blocking pattern that is progged. We will have to see if that trend continues and look for definitve clues that block will breakdown. Any thoughts Rob or GF Dan?Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00949425441824069047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-83337096347847356812010-02-22T18:50:37.185-06:002010-02-22T18:50:37.185-06:00Rob!
I have a question for you!!!
If one were to...Rob!<br /><br />I have a question for you!!!<br /><br />If one were to ask you what kind of opportunity's are there in the field of Meteorology what would you say???<br /><br />I have always heard Environment Canada cutting back jobs year after year due to computer technology basically replacing forecasters!!!daniel Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-50923217434886275822010-02-22T16:48:18.861-06:002010-02-22T16:48:18.861-06:00Band of snow moving in from the north is producing...Band of snow moving in from the north is producing visibilities of 1.5 to 2 miles in light snow.. not particularly heavy, but enough to slick up the roads a bit with a dusting to 2 cm or so through this evening. Winds shift into the northwest behind it and bring in colder air with temps dropping to -25C by morning.. our coldest weather in awhile. Thankfully, it will be short lived as milder air works back in by mid to late week.<br /><br />BTW, Manitoba released its spring flood outlook today, see updated blog entry for link. With normal precipitation levels over the next two months, a flood higher than 2006 but lower than 2009 is predicted for the Red River.robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-25124994024261586462010-02-22T16:31:07.203-06:002010-02-22T16:31:07.203-06:00Daryl.
Actually the leading edge of the snow is ju...Daryl.<br />Actually the leading edge of the snow is just over the radar site so it appears that the leading edge thins out when actually it remains just as potent!daniel Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-30509139015606674762010-02-22T16:26:45.382-06:002010-02-22T16:26:45.382-06:00Daniel
Actully it appears that the snow is thinni...Daniel<br /><br />Actully it appears that the snow is thinning out quite rapidly as it approaches Winnipeg. Might be running out of moisture,Darylnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-65574381861747412172010-02-22T15:54:12.144-06:002010-02-22T15:54:12.144-06:00Yeah that looks like more snow then this aftenoon ...Yeah that looks like more snow then this aftenoon but a little more compact. I guess the temp will drop rapidly when that snow hits us.Darylnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-11258586492048959462010-02-22T15:49:49.994-06:002010-02-22T15:49:49.994-06:00Oh the radar is back online!
And look at that col...Oh the radar is back online!<br /><br />And look at that cold front that is heading this way!!!<br /><br />Look for heavy snow in about a hour!daniel Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-7407193987876769662010-02-22T14:22:11.787-06:002010-02-22T14:22:11.787-06:00Daniel P
Yes it does seem that way and further it...Daniel P<br /><br />Yes it does seem that way and further it seems to go down when it snows. The last time was during the blizzard a few weeks back and now again.Darylnoreply@blogger.com