tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post4159647697564999181..comments2024-02-25T19:29:38.176-06:00Comments on Rob's Blog: Warming up this week.. first 30C of the year likely by Thursday..Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-28757583738631095402011-06-30T09:30:47.726-05:002011-06-30T09:30:47.726-05:00Humidex adv for Winnipeg? Don't see it at EC&#...Humidex adv for Winnipeg? Don't see it at EC's web page. BTW, what are the Cdn criteria for a humidex adv?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-79046581108465027852011-06-30T06:35:57.951-05:002011-06-30T06:35:57.951-05:00Humidex advisory issued. Stay safe out there!!!Humidex advisory issued. Stay safe out there!!!daniel Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-19755528166877113422011-06-29T21:04:00.368-05:002011-06-29T21:04:00.368-05:00This is a storm report that SPC recieved tonight!!...This is a storm report that SPC recieved tonight!!<br /><br />06/29/2011 0625 PM<br /><br />Wagner, Phillips County.<br /><br /> Hail e2.75 inch, reported by public.<br /><br /><br />Estimated baseball size hail knocking horses over.<br /><br />Interesting observation!daniel Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-30869720742260863742011-06-29T20:44:36.713-05:002011-06-29T20:44:36.713-05:00First official 30C of the year today in Winnipeg w...First official 30C of the year today in Winnipeg with a high of 30.2C this afternoon at YWG airport. My station's first 30C also at 30.3C. Took a while to get here, but we squeezed it in before June was up. <br /><br />Looks like anotehr 30C day tomorrow with humidex values likely approaching 40C with dewpoints in the low 20s.. <br /><br />As for our severe weather threat tomorrow.. still remains to be seen where and when the cap will break. It may be late enough that severe weather will occur mainly east of Winnipeg tomorrow night, but if cap breaks sooner, the severe risk is certainly over the RRV late tomorrow. GEM says we won't see much in the RRV.. Stay tuned..robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-76716120319565434162011-06-29T20:00:30.306-05:002011-06-29T20:00:30.306-05:00Rob!
What is your latest gut feeling on tomorrow??...Rob!<br />What is your latest gut feeling on tomorrow?? Will we see isolated severe storms , or a major widespread outbreak of severe storms tomorrow??<br />Any tornado risk???daniel Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-73473743847043469762011-06-29T19:54:04.037-05:002011-06-29T19:54:04.037-05:00Dewpoints have really gone up today with vaules ar...Dewpoints have really gone up today with vaules around 20C. Lets see how much higher they can go!daniel Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-72799390695011167432011-06-29T16:12:59.371-05:002011-06-29T16:12:59.371-05:00did Winnipeg break a record low temperature yester...did Winnipeg break a record low temperature yesterday at 3.8?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-63115171538765740432011-06-29T15:58:47.103-05:002011-06-29T15:58:47.103-05:00a couple of things..
Don't be surprised if Wi...a couple of things..<br /><br />Don't be surprised if Winnipeg and I would guess areas north of the Trans-Canada and east of the RRV or highway 12 end up of with below average rainfall for June.<br /><br />Regarding the dewpoints, I would not rule out some values of 23-25 C. We have already seen extreme values of 25-27 C back in May in Minnesota. With all the standing water off to our south and west, direct evaporation from the soil should be sufficient to bump up the values.<br /><br />The main issue will be the whether the cap can break. From past experience with such cases, it is very difficult to overcome the cap locally due to the flat, featureless terrain that surrounds the city. The best chances are always around the interlake where lake breezes come into play and along the pembina escarpment (differential heating)..Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-86812285678031536532011-06-29T10:41:22.487-05:002011-06-29T10:41:22.487-05:00SPC is bullish regarding tomorrow's threat in ...SPC is bullish regarding tomorrow's threat in SC and SE MB. Has a 30% risk for us along with a hatched area, too.<br /><br />They mention supercells possible with very large hail. An isolated tornado may develop.Dereknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-69188083086073734132011-06-29T06:11:01.988-05:002011-06-29T06:11:01.988-05:00SPC sounds concerned about some severe storms if a...SPC sounds concerned about some severe storms if all the parameters come together! I guess will be talking about big time supercells tomorrow!!daniel Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-34485998002762533022011-06-28T19:11:46.397-05:002011-06-28T19:11:46.397-05:0028C dewpoint into the RRV would be almost unheard ...28C dewpoint into the RRV would be almost unheard of. Oh wait I remember June 2007. They were that high and I almost fainted from the heat and humidity. Postively STEAMY!!daniel Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-89869558334893510842011-06-28T18:26:38.659-05:002011-06-28T18:26:38.659-05:0018Z run of the NAM has gone nuts with the dewpoint...18Z run of the NAM has gone nuts with the dewpoints over ND and southern MB for Thursday.. with values as high as 28C progged into the RRV. That's leading to some insane CAPE values of 5000-6000 j/kg over us Thursday afternoon/evening which look unrealistically high.. <br /><br />Looking at current dewpoints across NA.. there are no areas anywhere near 25c or higher.. with the highest values of 21-24C near the Gulf. No doubt our dewpoints will be rising over the next couple of days.. but I can't see 28C dewpoints developing over us, especially with such a slow crop year. So I'd be leary of those high CAPE values that the NAM is suggesting Thursday.<br /><br />That being said, dewpoints should be climbing to the 20-22C mark by Thursday, so instability values will still be impressive.. perhaps 2000-3000 j/kg along with good shear of 40-50 kts. Timing of cold front will be an issue along with strong pre-frontal cap, although it looks like front will be crossing RRV at max heating time, so things could get interesting around here late Thursday. Convective mode will likely be isolated supercells at first with large hail and a risk of tornadoes, quickly evolving into a multi-cellular squall line with wind and heavy rain as the main threats Thursday night mainly east of Winnipeg. At least, that's how it's looking right now.. we'll have to see how things transpire over the next day or so..robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-25115016788395024462011-06-28T14:21:42.154-05:002011-06-28T14:21:42.154-05:00That's weather for you. Can't please ever...That's weather for you. Can't please everyone. If it's not dry it's wet. Unfortunately we can't seem to end up somewhere in between.Chrisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-41044977897180605592011-06-28T13:25:32.548-05:002011-06-28T13:25:32.548-05:00Don't mean to rain on your parade, but the las...Don't mean to rain on your parade, but the last thing we need are more storms. We are drowning out here and I find it unsettling that people in this province/city are hoping for more bad weather. Give me a break.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-46514001808726026582011-06-28T10:26:08.128-05:002011-06-28T10:26:08.128-05:00I'm so excited!!
Heat, Humidity, storms, the n...I'm so excited!!<br />Heat, Humidity, storms, the next few days! My kind of weather :-)daniel Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-85155100655964524592011-06-28T09:48:28.695-05:002011-06-28T09:48:28.695-05:00I would think that there's a supercell threat ...I would think that there's a supercell threat on Thursday evening.<br /><br />Also consider that extreme southern MB got a pretty nice line of storms on Saturday night with 2,500 J/KG of CAPE, only 25-30 kts of shear and a weak low level jet.<br /><br />A lot more energy/dynamics with the upcoming system. Certainly needs to be watched.Dereknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-15693092380637087352011-06-28T00:18:43.604-05:002011-06-28T00:18:43.604-05:00Looking at the GFS and NAM/WRF for Thursday evenin...Looking at the GFS and NAM/WRF for Thursday evening, in my opinion, it looks like we could potentially see a severe weather outbreak. <br /><br />Speed and directional shears at most levels look interesting too, so am I wrong in believing there may be some sort of supercell/tornado threat?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-32096813900788607802011-06-27T22:47:37.434-05:002011-06-27T22:47:37.434-05:00Those high CAPE values are being driven by some aw...Those high CAPE values are being driven by some awfully high model dewpoints of 25C spreading over southern MB and North Dakota Thursday. Those seem unrealistically high, but a southerly flow for two days should get our dewpoints to the 20C mark by Thursday making for a hot and muggy day. Depending on the timing of the cold front, yes.. we could see some severe storms late Thursday.robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-30609115807393557512011-06-27T17:05:06.417-05:002011-06-27T17:05:06.417-05:00Could be some significant thunderstorms on Thursda...Could be some significant thunderstorms on Thursday evening/overnight IF the cap breaks.<br /><br />Models showing up to 5,000 J/KG of CAPE and around 50 kts of deep shear. If things go, we may have an outbreak on our hands.Dereknoreply@blogger.com