tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post2793799720193173761..comments2024-02-25T19:29:38.176-06:00Comments on Rob's Blog: Strong storm system south of border to impact areas south and east of Winnipeg SundayUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger35125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-21595631295378743392012-12-11T09:29:14.613-06:002012-12-11T09:29:14.613-06:00Today, I went to the beachfront with my children.
...Today, I went to the beachfront with my children.<br />I found a sea shell and gave it to my 4 year old daughter <br />and said "You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear." She put the shell to her ear and screamed.<br />There was a hermit crab inside and it pinched <br />her ear. She never wants to go back! LoL I know this is <br />completely off topic but I had to tell someone!<br /><i>Also visit my web blog</i> :: <b><a href="http://weightloss-clinics.org/88/necessary-aspects-in-buy-unique-hoodia-the-best-routes/" rel="nofollow">fast weight loss tips</a></b>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-23069801264488319412012-04-20T11:54:38.854-05:002012-04-20T11:54:38.854-05:00Thanks Rob and Derek!
With more rain in the forec...Thanks Rob and Derek!<br /><br />With more rain in the forecast, and with all the previous rains, things will really green up with some warm weather!!daniel Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-5267397941463869912012-04-19T17:15:12.274-05:002012-04-19T17:15:12.274-05:00Congrats on the new house daniel! Looking forward ...Congrats on the new house daniel! Looking forward to some new St Vital weather obs this summer!robnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-52383922006621294162012-04-19T10:37:59.768-05:002012-04-19T10:37:59.768-05:00Congrats on the house, Daniel!
GFS is showing qui...Congrats on the house, Daniel!<br /><br />GFS is showing quite the warm-up early next week. Also a cold front slicing through late on Tuesday with a good amount of MLCAPE ahead of it.<br /><br />Could be some thunderstorm potential to monitor for next week Tuesday.Dereknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-45475231853296600422012-04-19T08:51:19.954-05:002012-04-19T08:51:19.954-05:00Rob!
Looks like next week a storm system may drag...Rob!<br /><br />Looks like next week a storm system may drag some very warm air into the area. Depending on how close the low pressure system gets to us, southerly winds prior to the system could pump up some warm and humid air.<br /><br />BTW, I'm moving in JUNE! Off to ST VITAL part of the world :) Bought by first HOUSE!!daniel Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-34345281103673280402012-04-18T22:44:59.167-05:002012-04-18T22:44:59.167-05:00The weatherbugs for Rosser and Grosse Isle show mo...The weatherbugs for Rosser and Grosse Isle show monthly totals of 20-25 mm for April, not sure if includes yesterdays rain or not.. the map plots with daily data seem to be down.<br /><br />Re precip band<br /><br />Yeah that mid level forcing and deformation was maximized on the north side of the low as Rob mentioned (I missed your comment earlier).<br /><br />DanielAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-24445148349517569582012-04-18T19:55:11.886-05:002012-04-18T19:55:11.886-05:0020mm here in fort garry20mm here in fort garryAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-46328539684782942822012-04-18T15:33:43.076-05:002012-04-18T15:33:43.076-05:00That band was associated with a region of mid-leve...That band was associated with a region of mid-level frontogenesis (intensifying temperature gradient), associated with a small scale deformation axis. Thermal direct circulations across temperature gradients (rising in the warm air and descending in the cold air), have been linked with enhanced rates of precipitation. Convection blowing up on the LLJ and area of better elevated instability, seemed to weaken the northern band.<br /><br />The 16 mm at YWG seems too low, as it was closer to the heavier band.. measurements from that site should not be trusted with much confidence. Would be interesting to look at precipitation totals from ag-wx and cwb stations under that QPE bullseye..<br /><br />DanielAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-24420114968133653532012-04-18T11:02:59.616-05:002012-04-18T11:02:59.616-05:00I finished with 20 mm at my place in South St. Vit...I finished with 20 mm at my place in South St. Vital.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-68306989859058700722012-04-18T09:39:39.420-05:002012-04-18T09:39:39.420-05:00A couple reports of some minor snow amounts from y...A couple reports of some minor snow amounts from yesterday's system.. including 1 cm in Roblin and Gilbert Plains, 0.4 cm in Yorkton, and trace amounts in Pinawa. Most places in southern MB only saw about 5-10 mm of rain with this system, with the heaviest amounts in a narrow band from just south of Portage to Winnipeg. Shows up nicely on Woodlands 24 hr radar accumulation product from Brad's radar viewer (click on my name for image) Note however that radar precip amounts seem to be overestimated by 2-3X actual reports.robhttp://dd.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/radar/24_HR_ACCUM/GIF/XWL/201204181110_XWL_24_HR_ACCUM_MM.gif?Wed+Apr+18+2012+08:35:49+GMT-0600+(Mountain+Daylight+Time)noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-21050030151219463712012-04-18T09:35:57.192-05:002012-04-18T09:35:57.192-05:00I finished with 12.4 mm at my place in Transcona, ...I finished with 12.4 mm at my place in Transcona, in line with EC's 10-15 mm forecast.Chrisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-42760354162097677052012-04-18T07:36:57.338-05:002012-04-18T07:36:57.338-05:0018.6 mm at my place.. quite a bit more than models...18.6 mm at my place.. quite a bit more than models were suggesting (especially the ECMWF) Hi-res models were the best with both NAM and RGEM suggesting 10-15 mm rain for YWG. Winnipeg was in the "sweet spot" of this system, lying at the inflection point of the comma head associated with the 700 mb low crossing southern MB along the US border.robnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-88660777610063960822012-04-17T23:40:22.848-05:002012-04-17T23:40:22.848-05:0015mm of rain when I last checked here in St. Bonif...15mm of rain when I last checked here in St. Bonifice. Coming down harder now; I had doubts to even getting more than 10 but the models seem to have trended to a more correct solution mighty quick today. If the rain can keep up for 2-3 more hours it wouldn't surprise me if I had an inch in my rain gauge.Bradhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09422961165888722429noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-47595372845843892012-04-17T21:21:53.419-05:002012-04-17T21:21:53.419-05:00Rain falling a little harder now with 4 mm past ho...Rain falling a little harder now with 4 mm past hour at my station, and 7 mm since it started around 5 pm. Radar showing a band of moderate to heavy rain along and north of the Transcanada between from Portage thru Winnipeg to Pinawa, possibly along that zone of 700 mb forcing Daniel was alluding to. Still looks like all rain, but that could change over to wet snow after midnight although bulk of precip should be east of the city by then.robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-23462621229649615512012-04-17T21:13:34.946-05:002012-04-17T21:13:34.946-05:00Very narrow frontogenic rain band sharpening - fro...Very narrow frontogenic rain band sharpening - from just south of Portage, to northwestern parts of Winnipeg. Radar estimated rainfall rates are in the 15-20 mm/h range under the core of that band, with intensities dropping off quickly to 4-7 mm/h on the periphery. <br /><br />Precipitation totals and location will depend on the evolution of that band, which may remain just north of the TransCanada. Cold pool at 925 hPa has weakened, and RUC keeps shallow, near-surface melting layer thru midnight. Still think there is shot at wet snow right under the heaviest forcing, if that band can linger long enough and allow colder air to move in (along with diurnal cooling). <br /><br />That leads to the next question.. RUC shows a southern wave strengthening over the course of the night, perhaps at the expense of our northern one. It will be associated with an increasing LLJ, modest instability, and a blossoming area of convection. Uncertainty as to whether or not it will rob energy and moisture from northern system. Some of that elevated convection may advect into SE Manitoba..<br /><br />DanielAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-37658010945417058212012-04-17T20:23:02.986-05:002012-04-17T20:23:02.986-05:00Interesting analysis of our March WX.
http://eart...Interesting analysis of our March WX.<br /><br />http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=77671&src=eoa-iotdAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-24261538564792234302012-04-17T15:27:28.295-05:002012-04-17T15:27:28.295-05:00Precipitation band closely associated with region ...Precipitation band closely associated with region of 700 hPa frontogenesis, as seen on SPC mesoscale analysis. The RUC model driving the analysis, along with NAM, also picking up 925 cold core below zero (no doubt associated with heaviest forcing and precip). Unfortunately there is a dearth of recording stations in eastern Saskatchewan and western most Manitoba.. any reports from this area of phase type? <br /><br />DanielAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-85837322607603794712012-04-17T12:47:18.516-05:002012-04-17T12:47:18.516-05:00Will be interesting to see how low the freezing le...Will be interesting to see how low the freezing level gets this evening as to whether or not we change to snow here in Winnipeg/RRV. Sometimes, the slightly lower elevation of the valley is all it takes to keep us as rain, while higher elevations outside the valley change to wet snow. A couple hundred feet elevation is sometimes the difference between rain and snow in these shoulder season events.robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-16737346697757428862012-04-17T11:21:04.945-05:002012-04-17T11:21:04.945-05:00Didn't see your comment Rob. I think the regi...Didn't see your comment Rob. I think the regional models are picking up on a band of frontogenesis, that will set somewhere around the TransCanada. There is also uncertainty in how much the system can intensify before reaching here..<br /><br />DanielAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-24566963796310822202012-04-17T11:09:38.246-05:002012-04-17T11:09:38.246-05:00Area of low clouds last night kept temperatures wa...Area of low clouds last night kept temperatures warmer.. giving us a head start today. We'll see where we level off as more clouds move in ahead of the system.<br /><br />NAM sticking to its guns bringing in stronger forcing and 925 temps of 0 by this evening. It shows surface temperatures dropping off to 0/1 C by around 10 pm and now gives us 16 mm total precipitation with possibly 5 mm in the form of wet slushy snow. RGEM guidance is warmer keeping it all rain.<br /><br />CMC does not reject NAM scenario.. so it seems to be a question of what guidance you believe. My own gut feeling.. precip will move in as rain and switch over to wet snow in any heavier bands and forcing around 10 PM. Its also worth noting that models are a little bit slower in bring in precip.. which may favor higher totals since the system will have more time to tap LLJ and moisture.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-19669576776140139922012-04-17T11:06:58.388-05:002012-04-17T11:06:58.388-05:00Yeah, it's the higher res models that are givi...Yeah, it's the higher res models that are giving the higher amounts.. so I think they're hinting at some embedded convection developing. Some hints of it right now over northern ND and SE SK, but nothing major. NAM is also colder with the precip, with freezing levels dropping to 1000 ft AGL after midnight in Winnipeg.. possibly changing any lingering rain to wet snow by then, as alluded to earlier by anonymous.robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-57831216909082439972012-04-17T10:07:24.236-05:002012-04-17T10:07:24.236-05:00RGEM seems a little over zealous to me...unless a ...RGEM seems a little over zealous to me...unless a little convection gets going on the nose of the LLJ...Bradhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09422961165888722429noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-74228921366150002062012-04-17T09:43:41.027-05:002012-04-17T09:43:41.027-05:00Next area of precipitation over SE SK this morning...Next area of precipitation over SE SK this morning falling as snow right now. Area of precip will be moving eastward into SW MB this morning, and into RRV this afternoon.. reaching Winnipeg between 3-6 pm. By then, it will be rain for us as temps climb to 7-8C, but cooling off to 3-4C as rain moves in with lower dewpoints. General rainfall amounts of 5-10 mm being advertised from the models for Winnipeg between 3 pm and 3 am.<br /><br />Specifically from last night's runs..<br /><br />RGEM.... 11 mm<br />GGEM.... 7 mm<br />NAM .... 13 mm<br />ECMWF... 3 mm<br /><br />NAEFS ... 5 mm (ensemble)robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-62727210077236322142012-04-17T00:40:07.970-05:002012-04-17T00:40:07.970-05:0031.4C today in Huntingdon, Quebec (Quebec/Vermont ...31.4C today in Huntingdon, Quebec (Quebec/Vermont border), 66 km south of Montreal.<br /><br />2 other stations in Southern Quebec were above 30C. Those are the first three 30C+ temperature readings in Canada for 2012. <br /><br />Humidex of 34C in Huntingdon as well which is also the highest humidex recorded in the country for 2012.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-6852059443884688292012-04-16T22:13:16.926-05:002012-04-16T22:13:16.926-05:00American guidance considerably colder than SCRIBE ...American guidance considerably colder than SCRIBE for tomorrow's system. They show 925 temps as low as 0 C north of a warm front. With clouds and precipitation moving in by afternoon, we would be lucky to reach 3/4 C under that scenario. Looks like a focused area of strong lift, with nose of 30 kt LLJ and possible frontogenesis (leading to some banding). NAM is stronger than GFS with forcing, and shows more dynamic cooling. NAM would have mainly wet snow for tomorrow while GFS has rain mixing in with some wet snow on the back edge of precipitation.<br /><br />Tricky situation because system will be intensifying as it moves east, and taps a stronger LLJ and moisture advection. Possible convection in N Dakota tomorrow evening ahead of the cold front. They should be basking in the warm sector during the day with temps in the 15-18 C range.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com