tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post2583196797346804099..comments2024-02-25T19:29:38.176-06:00Comments on Rob's Blog: Increasing threat of significant snowfall over Red River basin Tuesday into WednesdayUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger23125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-43407613676258016972011-03-22T14:59:21.079-05:002011-03-22T14:59:21.079-05:00All that can really be said is that most of the mo...All that can really be said is that most of the models have really, really been struggling for the past month. With complex developing systems like this one; it sure is hard to be able to forecast anything until it's on your doorstep when the guidance is so poor...Bradhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09422961165888722429noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-15216998388424372652011-03-22T11:12:27.971-05:002011-03-22T11:12:27.971-05:00I dunno. I don't care even if they do happen i...I dunno. I don't care even if they do happen in the spring it'll all melt pretty soon anyways so it doesn't make that much of a difference (an extra week or 2 of snow cover who cares). I just like interesting weather, regardless of the event and time of year of when it happens!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-64468124958965222552011-03-22T10:40:58.261-05:002011-03-22T10:40:58.261-05:00anonymous..
I love snowstorms.. but not in the sp...anonymous..<br /><br />I love snowstorms.. but not in the spring. By this time, I've had enough of the snow, and am eager for the snowcover to disappear to allow for warmer weather. Winters here along enough without them lasting into April (or even May!). Snowstorms at this time of year only delay spring and add to the flood risk.. so I'm happy to miss the storm. <br /><br />Satpix and radar indicate some impressive convective development over ND with cloud tops of 25-35K feet with expanding area of heavy pcpn over central/western ND. Looking at current analysis and trends, I would agree that main action will be south of the border, perhaps clipping southwest MB. A non-event for Winnipeg..robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-48367682282746015402011-03-22T10:21:21.708-05:002011-03-22T10:21:21.708-05:00I'd say drop the warnings EC. It ain't hap...I'd say drop the warnings EC. It ain't happeningAdamnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-39396590609482898772011-03-22T10:18:37.860-05:002011-03-22T10:18:37.860-05:00Forecast fail big time for the GEM. Now the models...Forecast fail big time for the GEM. Now the models are saying that areas that are under the winter storm watch according to EC are going to receive hardly anything compared to yesterday and everything, literally everything is falling in ND with a 50mm bulls eye over grand forks. With that area seeing already so much snowfall this winter this is probably worse for our flooding situation then if it were to happen hereAdamnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-75098992810649595192011-03-22T09:49:24.918-05:002011-03-22T09:49:24.918-05:00Am I the only one who's disappointed that Winn...Am I the only one who's disappointed that Winnipeg is not getting this storm? I love interesting weather! And for the flooding it wouldn't have matter much anyways because where the bulk of the snow is going to fall will end up in the red anyways. So I say were missing out for nothing and sorry if most of you disagree but its not every day you get to experience a storm like this one that we just missed so I always appreciate it when they do happen because we get sunny clear weather most of the time anyways :) who's with me?! lolAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-42530666406358900352011-03-21T21:49:25.614-05:002011-03-21T21:49:25.614-05:00Dan GFK Has this NWS Storm Warning been updated?
...Dan GFK Has this NWS Storm Warning been updated?<br />Full text on link from your site (NWS FGF) <br /><br />A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO<br />7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY.<br /><br />* A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET..AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP<br /> OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL<br /> SNOW TUESDAY...BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND<br /> TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATE SNOW CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY.<br /><br />* SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WARNING AREA WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 12<br /> INCHES FROM WILLISTON...TO GARRISON AND JAMESTOWN. EXPECT 12 TO<br /> 18 INCH AMOUNTS...FROM MINOT...TO RUGBY...BOTTINEAU...AND<br /> HARVEY...AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.<br /><br />* TRAVEL WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS DUE TO THE FREEZING RAIN...SLEET<br /> AND SNOW.<br /><br />* WINDS WILL GUST AT TIMES TO 40 MPH CAUSING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW<br /> AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY<br /> AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.Donnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-34619755071288553082011-03-21T20:59:22.799-05:002011-03-21T20:59:22.799-05:00Brent...
Our climate person sees a wet and coolis...Brent...<br /><br />Our climate person sees a wet and coolish April....potential for wet storms, with biggest potential mid April.Dan - GFnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-80439348447851583502011-03-21T20:23:33.085-05:002011-03-21T20:23:33.085-05:00It certainly looks like the models are trending to...It certainly looks like the models are trending towards the NAM solution.....ie. little to no snow for Winnipeg. Hope it's right.rightmovernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-49971989626244911532011-03-21T19:23:05.950-05:002011-03-21T19:23:05.950-05:00Snow depth down to 33cm in Steinbach. We have lost...Snow depth down to 33cm in Steinbach. We have lost 17cm in the last 10 days, coming off a high of 50cm after the last snow even on March 11.Scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10378918135776009197noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-8338188677383611882011-03-21T18:35:54.881-05:002011-03-21T18:35:54.881-05:00Dan GF's post from Feb 22nd:
"About Marc...Dan GF's post from Feb 22nd:<br /><br />"About March weather...I say we are due to a return to stormier weather.... our local climate guy sees a major event sometime at the end of March that shows up in his composites. Sorry I dont know his specifics...."<br /><br />Looks like he hit the nail right on the head!!<br /><br />Does he have any predictions for April?Brentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-79404813091451028872011-03-21T17:11:40.026-05:002011-03-21T17:11:40.026-05:00Amazing how poor the models have handled this syst...Amazing how poor the models have handled this system. When I woke up this morning the GEM was showing a 20-30cm snowstorm for Steinbach...now 12 hours later the same GEM model is showing 0.1cm to 0.5cm of snow for Steinbach. The NAM and ECMWF have been the only consistent models in this whole mess, both showing the RRV missing out on the bulk of the snow.<br /><br />Will be interesting to see what the actual outcome is tomorrow.Scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10378918135776009197noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-28867687527145689442011-03-21T17:01:35.013-05:002011-03-21T17:01:35.013-05:00Dan..
Glad to hear the consensus is for a slightl...Dan..<br /><br />Glad to hear the consensus is for a slightly more southern track.. the last thing I want is another 10-20 cm of snow here just as our snowpack is starting to melt!<br /><br />12Z GEM and ensembles concur with a more southern track for the heaviest snow.. with ensembles now only showing a 50% chance of 5 cm or more for Winnipeg, down from 20 cm from last evening. Quite the dramatic change in one run update. Latest forecast now calling for 4-8 cm for Winnipeg Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.. and it could be even less with a very sharp cutoff to the snow between here and Emerson. Winter storm warnings out now over SW Manitoba into Morden-Emerson area with 15-25 cm forecast.<br /><br />Enjoy your storm!robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-2550043031037482152011-03-21T15:06:51.697-05:002011-03-21T15:06:51.697-05:00Glad to hear that metro will be spared That "...Glad to hear that metro will be spared That ""[sic] was an updated Southern MB issued this am.Donhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16528334558979288856noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-56996488227353777332011-03-21T13:28:02.989-05:002011-03-21T13:28:02.989-05:00TWN(TV) is still calling for 30-50 in ARV as far...TWN(TV) is still calling for 30-50 in ARV as far east as Brandon and the RRV south.Donhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16528334558979288856noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-76313894404782427612011-03-21T12:37:40.756-05:002011-03-21T12:37:40.756-05:00Had a conf call with our national precip centers (...Had a conf call with our national precip centers (HPC) on Sunday and they didnt like the farther north solns and preferred at that time the NAM/ECMWF. The 12Z GFS came in and is finally in line with NAM idea of max snow band holding in that Minot to GF-Fargo area with sharp northern cutoff holding very near Morden to Roseau. Wet heavy snow down here. <br /><br />This will push any crests along the Red well into April as no water has yet reached the Red in the southern basin from local runoff the last few weeks.Dan - GFnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-4747158369286234552011-03-21T10:35:49.408-05:002011-03-21T10:35:49.408-05:0012Z GEM has shifted a bit south on snow for Winnip...12Z GEM has shifted a bit south on snow for Winnipeg.. with only 2-4 cm noted now.. but 15-25 cm over the southern RRV. A very close call..robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-86556625869546065932011-03-21T09:53:57.699-05:002011-03-21T09:53:57.699-05:00New poll up! How much snow will Winnipeg get?New poll up! How much snow will Winnipeg get?robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-68277976953545285622011-03-21T09:48:50.788-05:002011-03-21T09:48:50.788-05:00Don..
That's odd.. 15-25 cm noted for Portage...Don..<br /><br />That's odd.. 15-25 cm noted for Portage and Morden regions but no winter storm watch for them. Must be an oversight since the watch area also has amounts of 15-25 cm mentioned..<br /><br />This storm looks very interesting as to how much snow Winnipeg will get out of it. Models and ensembles have been showing a steady northward shift of the snow into Winnipeg, with latest ensembles now indicating a 75% chance of Winnipeg seeing at least 10 cm, and a 50% chance of 20 cm. Snow will be heavy and wet too with lot of moisture content.. probably 10:1 ratios or even less. I won't be surprised to see the watch area expanded into the RRV and SE MB soon.<br /><br />NAM however continues to keep the bulk of the snow south of Winnipeg with little or no snow for us. It's the odd man out at this point, as most other models are pointing to snow reaching Winnipeg.<br /><br />Whatever the case, looks like a widespread 20-40 mm of water coming into the Red River basin with this system.. which will not help the flood outlook at all. Blechh.. spring is not off to a good start :(robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-41162650099637537122011-03-21T08:47:50.325-05:002011-03-21T08:47:50.325-05:00EC amended Tuesday Snow Storm 15 to 25cm winds ...EC amended Tuesday Snow Storm 15 to 25cm winds to 40K to include Portage and Headingley but not Winnipeg ... yetDonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16528334558979288856noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-28764279457732581092011-03-21T08:16:39.606-05:002011-03-21T08:16:39.606-05:00When will it stop and spring actually arrive??!!??...When will it stop and spring actually arrive??!!??!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-76919469265051281482011-03-20T19:13:13.827-05:002011-03-20T19:13:13.827-05:00That deep freeze later in the week has a certain 9...That deep freeze later in the week has a certain 97 Deja Vu to it. and right after storms of 30 + 20 cms of snow in the ARV and RRV.<br />Does any one's Long Term 4cast see a major warm up in two weeks.?ANONnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-34578524999902396572011-03-20T19:11:52.358-05:002011-03-20T19:11:52.358-05:00Your 10mms seems right on for this one
Appears tha...Your 10mms seems right on for this one<br />Appears that each of the systems we dodge spawns another a few days later.Donhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16528334558979288856noreply@blogger.com