|Other than a midmonth cold snap, temperatures|
have been mainly above normal in January
Turning colder for first half of February
|Upper pattern for 2nd week of February|
suggests below normal temps for MB/Ont
|850 mb temperature anomalies for 1st and 2nd weeks of February|
shows sustained cold pattern coming up (ECMWF EPS guidance)
A colder than normal February would be at odds with what history suggests February will be like during strong El Nino years (as we have this year) A composite temperature plot of the past 6 strongest El Ninos since 1950 (image left) shows a tendency of above normal temperatures over the Northern Plains (and southern Prairies) During the last very strong El Nino in 1997-98, February ended up as the warmest February on record in Winnipeg with a mean monthly temperature of -4.6C, some 9C above normal. The 2nd warmest February in Winnipeg, in 1878, was also during another very strong El Nino year. But there have been some exceptions.The Februarys of 1958 and 1966 were colder than normal in southern Manitoba, especially 1966 which featured a brutal cold snap in mid February that saw temperatures plummet to -45.0C in Winnipeg on the 18th, the second coldest temperature ever recorded here since 1872. But take heart, even in those cold Februarys, temperatures turned milder in the latter part of the month, including a record high of +11.7C in Feb 1958 on the 25th, Winnipeg' all time warmest February temperature. So if we do get that cold weather that is currently being suggested over the next two weeks, there's a good possibility that it won't last the entire month.