Thursday, August 31, 2006

Warm and windy end to August..

The gusty southerly winds that developed over Winnipeg Wednesday continue today, with winds even stronger than yesterday. A southerly low level jet of 50 to 55 knots is seen this morning between 850 and 900 mb, with 40 knots just above the surface. This is stronger than yesterday's low level winds, which should give Winnipeg southerly winds gusting to 70 km/h at times today. The strong southerly flow is ahead of a cold front moving through western Manitoba this morning bringing some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity west of Winnipeg. This front will push through the Red River valley later today into tonight giving a threat of some much needed rain. After some beneficial rains in the first half of August, rainfall has been scarce again over the last half of the month here in Winnipeg which is about to record its third or 4th driest summer on record (depending on if we get any rainfall before midnight tonight) It will also be one of the warmest summers on record, with a mean of 19.8C over the June-August period. (normal 18.3) The warmest summer on record was back in 1961 with a summer average of 20.4C

Wednesday, August 30, 2006

Today's wind forecast

Morning analysis shows 35-40 knots at 925 mb moving in from the west. This should get us those 50 to 70 km/h gusts I'm expecting in Winnipeg and the Red River valley this afternoon into this evening.. Note that yesterday in southern Saskatchewan, winds of 40 to 70 km/h were common, with even some reduced visbilities in blowing dust at Moose Jaw.

Southerly winds tend to funnel up the Red River valley which generally gives Winnipeg stronger winds than elsewhere in Southern Manitoba given the same gradient.

Tuesday, August 29, 2006

Wednesday forecast

Well, as Rob's blog told you days ago.. the official forecast for Wednesday now mentions strong south winds developing, and warmer temperatures (28 now instead of 24).

The wind forecast however could still be improved. The official forecast has south winds of 20 km/h becoming 40 gusting 60 "late in the day". I don't think so.. That pressure gradient will support winds of 30 km/h gusting 50 in the morning, increasing to 50 gusting 70 in the afternoon. The strongest winds will likely be between 2 and 8 pm. The strong winds, warm temperatures and low humidity will make for some very strong drying conditions. Not a good day for stubble burning!

Monday, August 28, 2006

Wicked winds Wednesday

Guidance continues to indicate strong southerly winds developing over Southern Manitoba on Wednesday August 30th. Winds will be particularly strong over Winnipeg and the Red River Valley where southerly winds of 50 km/h with gusts to 70 are likely as winds funnel up the north-south oriented valley. Skies should be sunny and temperatures will be warm with afternoon highs near 27c. A good day for kite flying but tough on cyclists.. especially those heading south!

Inexplicably, today's forecast for Wednesday doesn't include the "windy" term which is required in the forecast for winds of 40 km/h or more. That's what happens when you rely on a poor automated algorithm from a computer model rather than forecaster experience. Note that models had been been predicting warm and windy conditions for Wednesday since last Friday, but you wouldn't have known it from EC's official forecasts.

Sunday, August 27, 2006

Another 30 degree day in the long hot summer of 2006

Temperatures once again hit the 30 degree mark in Winnipeg today.. the 5th time this month, and the 22nd time this summer. At my station in Charleswood, the temperature climbed to 32.2C today, the 23rd thirty degree day of the summer. It has been a long hot summer over Winnipeg this year, especially July which saw a sizzling 16 days of 30 degrees or more. Normally Winnipeg will experience about eleven 30 degree days over a summer, with 4 on average in July and August. This year however has seen a persistent upper ridge maintaining above normal temperatures and more importantly dry conditions that have allowed plenty of sunshine to boost daytime temperatures throughout the summer.

Gorgeous Sunday in Winnipeg!

Absolutely beautiful day here today.. clear blue skies, low humidity (dewpoint only 9c), light winds and temperatures of 25C at 11.30 am. Doesn't get any better than this around these parts..

Saturday, August 26, 2006

Warm and windy end to August

Looks like windy and warm weather will move into Winnipeg and southern Manitoba on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, before a cold front ushers in a few showers and thunderstorms on Thursday Aug 31st. This front will herald the arrival of cooler air for the first few days of September with highs likely struggling to get above 20C.

The main weather news however for the first half of next week will be the dry, warm and increasingly windy conditions, especially on Wednesday Aug 30th as strong southerly winds of 50 to 70 km/h develop over Winnipeg and the Red River valley. Temperatures should be warm with highs of 26 on Tuesday and 28 on Wednesday. These temperatures are at least 4C higher than current forecasts are indicating.. which are showing a suspiciously cool bias for these days. Don't be surpised to see those forecast highs of 22C and 24C for Tuesday and Wednesday edge upward as the days get closer. Note also that "windy" is currently not in the forecast for Wednesday but will also likely be added as the day get closer.

Welcome to Rob's Blog!

Well, I had to do it eventually.. everyone else has one. Plus, this will be an easy way to post info on weather, climate, and any other relevant issues. We'll see how useful it is.. Let the blogging begin!